King Fahd's Death Reported; Implications for Oil, Succession?

[ColonelDax]

Reuters has reported that Saudi King Fahd has died, citing an unidentified diplomat. Any guesses as to the implications for the oil market and how the succession may work out?

September Brent crude is up 50 cents to $59.87 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange as of this posting.

[ColonelDax]

Link here.

[alphaboi867]

Is Abdullah now king? Is royal succesion automatic (as in the UK)?

[Queen_Bruin]

It appears that Abdullah was pronounced King pretty quickly.

Crude is already up $.50/barrel.

[zuma]

Hasn’t Abdullah been the de-facto ruler of SA for some time now? If so I’m not sure that things will change too much.

[Paul_in_Qatar]

We now have a King Abdullah in Saudi Arabia, in Jordan and in Morocco. He seems to have passed away about eight hours ago, about seven in the morning, local time. New went out by mobile phone almost at once. About ten the Saudi TV channel went to (even more than usual) religious programing. The official announcement seems to have come about eleven or so.

Fahad had being very sick for a very long time. His death was expected and most Saudis seem to have greeted the news with a ‘Thank God’ that his suffering is over.

His brother, Abdullah is now king and has in fact been in the driver’s seat for more than five years. Prince Sultan moves up from the Ministry of Defense and Aviation (a post he has held for about forever) and is now Crown Prince (well maybe he will keep MODA too). The Crown Prince is ex officio the commander of the National Guard.

Abdullah is well thought-of and his policies are already in effect anyway. Sultan is considered even more pro-American.

[Kimstu]

Arab writer Mai Yamani sez:

Two rival camps—the so-called reformers and the hard liners—are forming in the Al Saud, the world’s largest ruling family, with 22,000 princes and princesses.

The reformers have less authority but are the acceptable face of the Saudi dictatorship internationally. Their new leader, King Abdullah, appears to have legitimacy because of his seniority in the family. The reformers talk about partial municipal elections, national dialogue, and the rights of women, who they hint may one day even be allowed to drive cars!

Even these limited efforts are obstructed by the hardline Wahhabi camp, which controls the security forces, the judiciary system, and the real levers of domestic power. Indeed, Prince Naif, the Minister of the Interior and leader of the hardliners, has either silenced or imprisoned hundreds of the key Saudi reformers. […]

On the surface, the succession has proceeded as expected, with Crown Prince Abdullah becoming king now that Fahad has died. In spite of this, Abdullah may not be able to shape the future, because he seems doomed to lose any showdown with Naif’s forces. […]

A key early test of Abdullah’s kingship will be if he can succeed in freeing the hundreds of political reformers now in prison, especially three respected academics whom he encouraged to make reform proposals, only to be incarcerated by Naif. […]

The sad likelihood is that, given the power of the obstructionists under Naif, a decisive and energetic king is unlikely to emerge. The direction the country will take in the longer term can best be assessed by whom Abdullah chooses to name as the successor to Prince Sultan, Naif’s chief ally who has already been named Abdullah’s heir.

If Abdullah (aged 83) can perhaps skip a generation and appoint a more open-minded younger figure, there may be hope. But Naif (age 77), his full brothers—including Sultan (age 82)—and their supporters within the Wahhabi establishment appear too entrenched to allow that to happen. Like the geriatric successions that preceded the collapse of the Soviet Union, the succession in Saudi Arabia seems to be only a step in an inexorable march toward political decay.