So, I just saw an article about hacking to disrupt power grids with reference to the tool being used to briefly bring down 20% of the power generated Kiev. It’s temporary, and not a civilization-ender.
But in regards to tactics, strategy (or at least a video game version thereof), what do you think would be the most advantageous way to use this technology? I was thinking on a enemy nation instead of of on your own people. Combine with other technologies (including nuclear weapons) in any way you like.
Well, think of ALL the important things that run on electricity… Lights. Computers. Elevatotrs. Fuel Station pumps. Signalling lights for roads - and rails. Radar. Communications. The list goes on and on. Sure, some of those systems will have backup power - but how long will it last? Meanwhile, the vast majority of the infrastructure is basically shut down.
So - Pick which segment you most want to cripple, and just kill power to the geographic area containing it.
When you say “how would you use it to your advantage” - who is the “you”? Me as an individual? A country? Company? Hacker organization? What is my/our goal?
Sure, but which areas do you target (multiple can be targeted simultaneously)? What’s your strategy? Back up power won’t last forever, like you said, bu neither will the outage by this technology (or any of the others remote ones that I’ve heard of). Power was only out for one-to-six hours in the Ukraine (multiple targets). So what are you striking while the power is out?
Country. You can either answer in terms of your actual country or a hypothetical one. Your goal is to defeat your enemy - active war, not just harassment. I prefer consideration of outside country’s reactions, but it’s not a requirement.
What if those things have solar panels? More and more businesses are putting in solar systems.
Large hospital and college campuses also often have their own on-site power plants.
Some critical infrastructure has natural-gas fired backup generators, which will provide power to the building as long as the pipeline works.
From a psy-ops position it will cause the population to question why their leadership couldn’t or wouldn’t protect themselves from such an attack which will distract and put their leadership on the defensive explaining why/how the attack happened.
Then there is always that section of the population that will take advantage of the blackout to engage in looting and rioting which will tie up law enforcement and possibly military assets if the disruption goes on long enough.
To address your question with the goal of defeating the enemy the main thing you will accomplish is FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, & Doubt) in the civilian population by cutting communications to the majority who don’t have reliable access to generators and battery backups once they have run out of fuel. This leading to unrest the government has to address tying up assets that are needed elsewhere.
Obviously this is only going to be one stage of a larger organized attack designed to defeat the opponent. You don’t go into a boxing match expecting to win by making a single jab to your opponent’s face.
Then you can’t use this for your distraction. Weakens your abilities, I’ll admit. But if you think it’s useless, that’s fine. I’m just trying to come up with good ways to use this (I’m admittedly in a more simplified, less realistic mindset, but I really hope others can do better than I). With short duration, I’m tending to think “diversion” for the power outage. But diversion from what? Nuclear missile attack - too many back ups, too many allies: they’d notice. Can’t use it for full-scale invasion of US (my own country) because we’re too far away from anyone to not notice the prep (unless it’s Canada or Mexico, but that’s problematic for other reasons). Assassinating leaders - they’d be more likely to get increased protection if simultaneous power outages started happening. Maybe if I’ve already invaded or attacked…
Now that I think about it, this might go well with an embargo/blockade. Especially in early days. People are already panicking, worried about shortages. But it’s not yet so far along that the shortages are so severe than it’s routine and unsurprising.
Which systems and regions get targetted really depends on you goals. What is in your intent?
Solar pannels only work in the day. And in general, the high-intensity systems can’t be supported by solar anyway; you’re not going to run ATC radar on Solar. You might be able to run traffic lights on it - Maybe. Backup generators are dependant on supplies - and increasingly, liquid fuels are delivered in relatively small patches - “Just in Time” deliveries. If your rail nets are a mess because of grid disruptions, “Just in Time” becomes “Too Late.” Pipelines also rely upon signalling, though they are much less vulnerable - But only a relatively few systems are so equipped. Modernizing infrastructure isn’t a uniform priority, unfortunately.
BTW, the Just in Time supply applies to food distribution, too - We’re about two days away from “empty shelves” at any point in time. About two days past that, you’ve got serious social problems. Screw up rail and surface traffic badly enough, and you can start at least localized rioting.
As for how long the outage will last, well, that kinda depends on how you knock things out, too. The great Northeast blackout caused a cascade failure that physically damaged and destroyed key switchgear over about a fifth of the the inhabited portion of North America. A cascade failure like that could potentially be engineered with the right kinds of access. Or, you can ‘dust’ metalized carbon fibres upwind of powerlines and switching stations for a persistent-but-localized outage. Or you can blast a few major regional transmission trunks. Or you can invoke the ever-popular EMP in various sizes, depending on means and intention.
Knock out the power to places like Tehran…or Los Angeles…and you knock out the water. Knock out the water, and those cities start to die. It would guarantee defeat in war.
During the Bin Laden raid in Pakistan, US hackers cut power and (I think) cell phone service in Abbottabad. This likely made it harder for anyone to alert authorities. If you are doing a quick raid and will be in/out in an hour, then this will add to the confusion and people will be too distracted by the lack of power to do notice the raid.
So the question is what targets of opportunity are presented by a temporary power outage of a fairly large region?
If the power is only out for 1-6 hours as you mentioned above, I think the effects are fairly limited.
I don’t know what the electrical backup situation is for a large airport, but you could possibly disrupt flight schedules for most of the country for a couple of days by blacking out one or two major hubs, I’m not sure what tactical advantage you could gain from that.
I guess I’d be looking at diversion of resources. If you can take out the power long enough to cause localized rioting, you’ll have police, fire, and para-military resources (such as the National Guard in the US) with a degraded ability to perform their normal functions. Use that opportunity to cripple something else for a longer term, such as attacking a major port and setting fire to buildings and equipment. If it’s a smaller country with only one major port, you’ve achieved what’s effectively a blockade without needing a Navy.
Obviously you use it to your advantage by attacking quickly while your enemy is in disarray. Whatever contingency plans they have will take time cycle up.