The source for this was some education conference here in Alaska. One would think educators would be smarter than that.
What this appears to me is a conflation between “Computer speed doubles every 18 months,” (which I assume is not true now if it ever actually was) and Robert Anton Wilson’s Jumping Jesus theory.
I can see how noise will double every 18 months, but I find the claim ‘knowledge’ doubling suspect.
Secondly, how does this alleged doubling invalidate the current database. Isn’t Shakespeare’s birthday going to remain April 23rd and the procedure for pumping a cesspool remain unchanged. Are great strides in archery, home-brewed beer and quilting invalidating all previous knowledge?
If anyone has data on this claim, I’d be interested to see it.
It’s another one of those ridiculous and meaningless platitudes along the lines of “we only use 10% of our brains.” The next time someone tells you that, ask them what units of measure they are using to determine how much knowledge exists at any one time.
I suspect that they meant information, not knowledge. As you observed, the proliferation of information makes a good, general education all the more important as this facilitates the location, verification, and processing of that information.
Nope, it’s about right on target. 18 months ago, people were going ga-ga when AMD produced a 1 gigahertz chip (actually, a 600 mhz or so chip that was overclocked - with a massive cooling unit - to 1 ghz). And now Intel’s looking to release a 2.2 ghz and a 2.4 ghz. Additionally, I should point out that, with the right cooling units and radiation protection, they’ve got some chips boosted as high as 4.7 ghz.
Here’s the link to RAW’s jj: http://www.rawilson.com/sitnow.html (and there’s no mention of how he determines one jj, or what kind of units it’s expressing.)
If everything you know was put on one piece of paper (with very small type, perhaps) and you photocopied it, you would have doubled your information, but done nothing to your store of knowledge. However, if you then gave that sheet to someone else, you would have increase their knowledge (by some percentage under 100) because, while your information stores probably have some over-lap, they’re not identical.
The 18 month doubling rate is for the number of transistors that can be incorporated into an integrated circuit. It’s called Moore’s Law, and has held, roughly, since 1965.
Well, that Jumpin Jesus guy looks 3/4 nuts, but clearly the general principal is true: if you measure the scientific knowledgebase of earth, it’s growing at an ever faster rate. How fast? I dunno, depends on how you define the terms. But certainly life 5,000 years ago wasn’t much different from life 10,000 years ago. Differences in farming techniques or minor improvements in governments were about it. Nowadays it’s fair to say that each generation pretty much obsoletes the previous one. And it’s only getting faster.
There’s a concept out there of the “singularity”, which is the point in time where technology advances so fast that human brains are incapable of keeping up. Most of the thinkers in this space are as nuts as the Jump For Christ guy, but it’s interesting intellectual fodder. Here’s one site, but you can find more at google looking up “singularity”: http://www.ugcs.caltech.edu/~phoenix/vinge/vinge-sing.html