Interesting thing is that Kushner is said to be particularly tight with the rising power-behind-the-throne #2 guy in Saudi Arabia. You wonder how that’s playing out behind the scenes.
I don’t consider myself an expert on Israel-Palestine or the peace process but I think the difference is that previous presidents acknowledged the complex issues involved (and there are many) of the post-1967 peace efforts and tried to reach a 2-state solution. People can debate how realistic a 2-state outcome is, but what had been achieved to varying degrees since at least the 1990s is a bit of pragmatism and a relative state of calm. Yes, there have been intifadas but they’ve eventually been resolved. What Trump is doing - and I think this is as much at the urging of the Christian right as Zionists - is to take an unambiguous stand in rejecting America’s role as a political broker in the region. Now they could have simply said, we’re not sending any more money to Israel, Egypt, Palestine, Jordan, etc. - you guys work this out. But that’s not what has happened. The US has, it would seem, taken Israel’s side not only against the Palestinians, but in its relations with all of Israel’s Middle Eastern neighbors. These aren’t just any neighbors either. They provide logistical support to the United States global military machine, among other things.
My first thought is that Salman must be seething. He’s at war with Houthis to his south, but worse than that, he has to be worried about the eastern provinces in his own country. And he can’t just forget about Al Qaida either. Life for the average Saudi has become much harder since about 2013-14 when oil prices fell. It’s already combustible.
The reason Trump is doing this is obvious: domestic political reasons. American Jews have been strongly associated with the Democratic party for a long time. Trump and other Republicans feel that automatically rubber-stamping the positions of the Israeli government will cause American Jews to switch to the Republican party (compared to the slightly more even-handed approach of the Democrats and previous Republican administrations).
While this is certainly a provocation to Arabs, the Israeli government has made so many provocations to Arabs that it is hard to see that this will cause an increase in violence when these other provocations didn’t.
The “Plan to Bring Peace to the Middle East” is a joke; nothing will change without a major change in the Israeli government (and probably a change in the Palestinian and other Arab leadership as well).
Why would the U.S. recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel cause S.A. to condemn Israel? Israel isn’t changing anything, they’ve claimed it as their capital all along. Relations between S.A. and Israel have been steadily improving and look to remain that way with each vehemently opposed to Iran.
It would be hard for relations between the U.S. and Turkey to deteriorate any further and still remain allies within NATO. I doubt recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital would even factor in. Turkey has already been cozying up to Russia and Iran and completed the purchase of advanced Russian air-defense systems. There were also the recent revelations that Erdogan/Turkey was helping Iran evade U.S. sanctions.
The move does eliminate the traditional US claim to be an “honest broker” for the region, and that will have indirect consequences aplenty.
Makes me wonder if Kushner’s plan for the opioid epidemic was to install Oxycontin vending machines in high schools.
Yeah, if he was just moving the embassy, I don’t know that it would be quite the same issue. The fact that they’re obviously supporting Israel and that Kushner is obviously besties with Salman is going to be seen as a genuine threat, not just a symbolic gesture.
After this success, Trump will be sending his son-in-law to Pakistan to deal with the conflict in Kashmir - that will be known as the Hindu-Kushner. 
I get that the US recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capitol and moving the US embassy there from Tel Aviv will inflame tension, but what I don’t understand “why” Trump wants to do this - what is in it for him (because, he has demonstrated that is his primary motivator)?
Well his son-in-law and daughter are Jewish.
And this recently released article with a bunch of information about why Israel is hesitant about helping Trump: Exclusive: What Trump Really Told Kislyak After Comey Was Canned | Vanity Fair
If he’s trying to make American Jews more likely to support him, I don’t think it’ll work. The ones who think this is a good idea already vote Republican, and the ones like me, who think it’s really unwise, will probably be even more repelled. This stinks of the influence of Apocalyptic Christian movements.
I am a Zionist. I love Israel. I have plane tickets for a visit next summer that will be my third in 5 years. But until there’s a two-state peace, I think this declaration is likely to do more harm than good. Sadly, I’m glad we paid for trip insurance, just in case we have to bail on our plans after this.
I don’t think Trump is capable of that type of strategic calculation.
Trump promised he would do it, his base wants it, and now some Washington Smartypants are telling him he can’t do it. Trump is the boss and is smarter than all those people, and he does what he wants.
That’s probably about it, I would think.
Kushner is also reported to be lobbying for the Falkland Islands to be recognized as the capital of Argentina.
Elvis:
Quite frankly, it probably makes the US the MOST honest broker in the region. Anyone who has been giving the Palestinians false hopes that the Israelis will ever give up Jerusalem is, if not dishonest, deluded.
Can’t help but think US foreign policy is determined by who has been nice to the President, plus how can the President get the most attention.
Who’s got the rope?
Kushner is leading this. While Kushner could bone up on his history, he’s clearly not dumb.
I suspect that the Israeli position is that they don’t much care if the rest of the Middle East goes to hell and millions of people die. They can hold their own borders and expand during/after the chaos.
Kushner is either holding the same view or isn’t aware of historical situations that are possibly similar, and how they turned out.
Though, I should say, there is some chance that it could succeed. I just don’t expect so. While Bismarck may have failed to keep the peace long-term, leading to WWI, if we look at the Cold War, we can say that if you hold things static for long enough, you can wait for a peaceful regime to come in and start patching things over. It’s just a matter of being consistent, open, and keeping on for as long as it takes, without giving up.
Dear President Trump Fix it Handyman:
I have discovered a huge yellow jacket hornet nest back behind the garage. Its enormous, and I worry about kids and pets. What should I do?
(signed) Bugged in Pennsylvania
Dear Bugged:
Step 1. Stick your dick in it…
Sage Rat:
I think you’re underestimating him.
I think he has met with enough Sunni Arab leaders - the countries that are scared of Iran and have been quietly moving closer to Israel - to decide that these countries are finding it in their own best interests to dial down the anti-Israel hostility, and that moves like the Jerusalem one can be made with relatively little adverse effect. Yes, the Palestinians will be up in arms, but let’s face it, they’ve rioted for way less. They’ll get it out of their system, life will return to normal, and Trump will have a foreign-policy win to his account.
Where’s the honesty in Israel’s position there? Is Israel honest enough yet to admit it considers everything west of the Jordan to be part of it? Is Israel honest enough yet to accept what that means for its future?
A broker, honest or not, can only work with parties who are both willing to negotiate and compromise. The US has now just joined with the intransigence of one and abandoned the other.