Will even the threat of this cause a backlash from the right? I can’t imagine the Republican reaction will be a positive one, given many of them cry conspiracy even when the numbers are released on time and they show a positive trend.
Were they to be delayed, what do you think the effect will be on the campaigns? [enter: speculative hypotheticals until a final decision is made by Labor]
My hypothesis - it’s too late for economic news to matter. We’re at the stage where undecided voters are swayed by ephemera (what they had for breakfast, whether it’s raining, whether their local sports team won).
In fact, as far as news goes, we’re in the sex scandal (or DUI like in 2000)/war/hurricane stage, IMO. Of course, there is a hurricane…
If the numbers are released on time, and are positive: Fox news will claim that the books were cooked.
If the numbers are released on time, and are negative: it’ll be the headline 24/7 until the election.
If the numbers aren’t released on time: it’ll be a massive conspiracy on the part of the Obama administration to suppress the undoubtedly devastating truth.
As for a prediction, I bet they are released with a huge asterisk, to be revised later. With little effect on the election.
The democrats will stop at nothing to re-elect their messiah. Good one democrats. Unleash a hurricane to scare people into voting for Obummer AND to put off the aweful jobs numbers until after the election.
It sort of takes personnel to finalize the report, and if DC is shut down for a few days it just isn’t going to be possible. I say hold off, better to wait for good data than release unverified data which could swing the election.
Helpful hint: you should call them “dummocrats” to really sound credible.
Update from DOL spokesman Carl Fillichio:
– From wire reports
I imagine there’s a lot of frantic data gathering done by people wearing nothing but tighty whities today.
Which may be, um, off white by the end of the day …
Right on time, Sen. Chuck Grassley cues the conspiracy theorists in Twitterese:
Why “hurt Obama elect” indeed. Of course, why wouldn’t Obama just fake the numbers like the right accused him of doing last month?
Too easy. Being the Messiah, he wanted to show his complete domination of nature by whipping up the Greatest Hurricane Of All Time[sup]TM[/sup] to “delay” their release.
Typical black Muslim socialist Messiah showboating.
Every time I read this, I hear “UNLEASH THE HURRICANE!” in that booming “UNLEASH THE KRAKEN!” voice.
Obama probably unleashed the hurricane from his fortress of evil on that island with the volcano in the middle, while stroking his white cat and saying “yesssss! This will teach them a lesson!”
This.
You forgot one:
If the numbers are released on time, and are neutral: Fox News will find SOMEthing negative to say about the report, and this will be the headline.
These kinds of statistics are always subject to revision. Standard procedure is to revise them a month later and have everyone but statistics geeks ignore them.
Not the Labor Force statistics from the household survey. They are not normally revised. The Establishment survey and other business and admin data reports are, but that’s due to more information coming in. Household surveys cost too much to allow continuing data flow that would give revisions.
Every January report, of the December data, revises the seasonal adjustment for the year, but that’s it (for 2011, Jan, Feb, Mar, and Nov were adjusted +0.1 percentage points, May, Jun, Sep, Oct were adjusted -0.1, and Apr, Jul, Aug were unchanged).
So it came out on schedule and as far as I am concerned is a big FONSI (Finding of no significant impact).
I have to admit I’m going to miss the sight of Romney proclaiming gloom and doom at each monthly report, grinning like the Cheshire Cat and struggling to hide his erection.
Yep. Mixed bag. 171k added but the rate went up to 7.9.
It might be a 1 day issue but it won’t be enough to move a significant amount of voters.