Ladies and Gents - The July Surprise. On Schedule.

Hours before John Kerry’s acceptance speech.

He was captured a few days ago…

Unless its Ossama himself, no one will care.

People will care. According to a more detailed Reuters article, it’s Ahmed Ghailini, wanted in connection with the 1998 U.S. embassy bombings which killed hundreds of people.

I don’t think his capture by Pakistani security forces was part of any cynical conspiracy, though. :dubious:

They’ll “capture” OBL about an hour before Bush speaks at the RNC so he can announce it first thing.

I’m not quite sure what I think of this anymore; but you’ve got to admit the timing of this particular announcement can’t be anything but good for the Bush Administration.

If this is “on schedule,” why didn’t you predict it in advance?

There was a thread in which I asked for predictions after the last bullshit “on schedule” comment, and I don’t recall anyone predicting that Ahmed Ghailini would be captured during the Democratic convention.

“To be sure of hitting the target, shoot first, and whatever you hit, call that the target.”

We routinely scoff at “psychics” who claim hits with precisely this sort of tactic.

Was a specific prediction made in advance? No. Then this is not “on schedule.” It just happened.

  • Rick

Hey, my server at Taco Bell’s drive-thru window just handed me a coupon for fifty cents off a Fiesta Burrito with the purchase of a medium drink. Merely hours before Kerry’s acceptance speech! You know who owns Taco Bell, don’t you? PepsiCo. Know how much money they’ve given to the GOP? Thousands. Well, you evil 'pubbies, you’re not fooling me with your thinly veiled attempt to distract me from the DNP’s convention. I know who’s on first here, and none of your dime store chicanery is going to take my attention away from the important issues at ha- holy shit. Did that guy just drop a quarter?

It’s pretty transparent that the announcement was held off to coincide with Kerry’s acceptance speech. It didn’t take a psychic to know that the Bushistas would try to find a way to manipulate the news and piss on Kerry’s day today either. If this hadn’t fallen into their laps it would have been another one of those contrived “terror alerts” or something. It’s not going to help them, though.

Actually, dopers discussed this scenario earlier this month in GD:

It was inspired by this July 7 article:
“… according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that “it would be best if the arrest or killing of [any] HVT were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July” – the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston.”

Where in that thread is Mr. Ghailini mentioned? I can’t seem to find it.

Gee, I’d say they missed it then. :rolleyes: Thats some schedule. They must be homebrewers. Anything within a few days is “close enough”.

Hm. I read the thread in question, but didn’t post as I didn’t really have anything to add. I’d heard the “July Surprise” theory and was willing to dismiss it as nothing but conspiracy up to this point. I had nothing to predict.

Now, on the other hand, I’m not so sure.

You’re right. No one predicted that Ahmed Ghailini would be captured during the Democratic convention. What was discussed, however, was that the Bush Administration was pushing Pakistan to announce the capture of a high-level al Qaeda operative sometime during the DNC.

And that’s exactly what happened. If he was captured on Sunday, why wasn’t it announced on Sunday? Or at the latest, Monday? Why did this particular announcement have to wait until just before John Kerry’s acceptance speech? Just in time for the evening news programs?

This particular announcement confirms the prediction of everyone who suggested it except for the single fact that it wasn’t Osama bin Laden. So Pakistan doesn’t have him yet, and offered up the best they could.

Or they’ve got him and they’re waiting for a few days before election day.

I have no idea. But I’m not particularly keen on giving this Administration the benefit of the doubt these days.

Yeah, the 10 seconds that CNN et al are giving to this story is just swamping out the Democractic Convention.

Well yeah, but it seems more reasonable to suppose that it’s incidental rather than the result of some sinister plot. After all, while this is good news for the Bush Administration, if they were manipulating when this took place, they could pick a better time. The topic will have changed by November. Comparing this situation to the October Surprise is ludicrous, because the whole point of an October Surprise is its temporal proximity to a polling day.

How do you posit that Pakistani security forces colluded with Bush administration in this instance? You mean the timing of announcement contrasted with the actual arrest? It’s not surprising that it took a few days to determine his identity. It’s not like the guy’s going to be carrying ID with “Ahmed Ghailani, Embassy Bomber” on it. If it could have been released right away, it probably would have been more beneficial for the Bush admin, because it would have distracted people from the Clinton speech. Clinton’s a better speaker than Kerry, and most people recognize that.

This particular announcement wouldn’t be anything but good for the Bush administration at any time, and if they had control over when it occurred, it’s easy to imagine much more convenient times in both the relatively immediate past and future.

He’s not; it just mentions “High Value Target[s]” that ideally should be captured and announced during the Dem convention. But I suspect you knew that and are actually alleging that something like “there will be a HVT capture announced during this small span of days” is not a prediction since the particular HVT’s name was not specifically mentioned. Originally, I was merely alerting you what I thought was a relevant thread in my fora that you did not seem to be familiar with; I am not going to discuss whether the lack of a specific name invalidates any prediction.

I hope that the OP was being sarcastic otherwise you guys are going insane.

The White House wanted “any HVT” (High Value Target). Ghailini is an HVT delivered right at Convention time as requested.

Pundits say that any big boost in Kerry’s poll numbers should come soon after and as a result of the DNC. If this is a commonly accepted theory, this is good timing in that Kerry’s last chance for a good boost could be overshadowed by the Administration yelling out: “Check it out! The War on Terror’s working! Vote Bush!”

I’m not positing. I’m basing this on The New Republic article cited in Gaudere’s link above. As mentioned, I was quite willing to dismiss it as conspiracy up to this point. Currently, I’m at the “now I have no idea what to think” stage.

You’re right. It’s not surprising that it took a few days to determine his identity. At the same time, one would think that a “high value target” that is on the FBI’s most-wanted terrorist list would be relatively easy to recognize. Particularly considering the fact that the US has been working very hard with Pakistan to seize known terrorists.

I completely agree; which makes me somewhat concerned as to what might be coming in the future. By and large, this announcement is almost exactly what has been predicted. If it’s coincidence, you must admit it’s a pretty good one.

Man, if Bush can get an “HVT” anytime he wants on schedule like this, I’m sure voting for him in Nov. I’ll bet Kerry could NEVER equal that performance. We need someone in the Whitehouse who can bring these guys in!!

Erm. With that in mind, I think I’ll step over the line and stand in the cynical conspiracy camp.


Ayuh, my post was composed before that popped up, and I was going back and forth between Crossfire on CNN. Sorry.

Count this as a Lily Tomlin moment for me. :eek: