Thank you TokyoPlayer. In your situation with your family already in Taiwan and your being able to work remotely, I would have already left Japan. We definitely gotta have some nice sake once you get back (assuming we make it in one piece here).
Shameless plug time! Since it’s related to the current topic, I’ll post a link to my YouTube quake video: Tokyo DisneySea: 3/11/11 Earthquake 東京ディズニーシー 地震 - YouTube
Hell, once this has all settled, it might even be cherry blossom season. We should have a Japan Dopefest!
No, it’s not. It’s leaking outside the primary containment vessel. As far as anyone knows, it’s still within the secondary containment, which is still inside the building, which is still inside the plant grounds.
Even at Chernobyl, which did not have a strong slab underlayment such as the Fukushima design does, the melted portion of the core did not “burn through” into the ground but stopped in a sub level. The likelihood of a “Brazil syndrome” is pretty vanishingly small here.
It’s statements like this which make you look uninformed and more frightened than sensible - there is nothing “supposedly” about it. As soon as the plant equipment detected an earthquake the control rods when in. They DID shut down. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.
This is true.
THIS is the more serious problem, really, but even there, nothing is going to blow up and spread chunks of fuel rod around the neighborhood like in Chernobyl. Worst case there is a melted puddle of goo in a dry pool throwing off heat and yes, some radioactive particles but still nothing as severe as Chernobyl. It’s not good, mind you, but not as bad was what happened in the Ukraine. The contamination will not be as bad, nor will it last as long because there are fewer sorts of radioisotopes being released. Cesium is probably the worst long-term one, but as long as no one tries to produce food in the immediate vicinity even the worst areas in the plant grounds will be safe for humans after a couple months.
The difference is that while Fukushima might become an “open core meltdown” it won’t become a “flaming chunks of core flung about the local neighborhood” kind of problem. The nuclear fuel will all stay in a pit. At Chernobyl there were fist-sized lumps of it launched out of the plant. Do you understand the difference now?
Ah, but what about radioactive vapors, you say? The massive explosion of an active core at Chernobyl was able to fling particles pretty high in the atmosphere, hence the radioactive cloud that floated over Europe. No explosion at Fukushima has been that powerful or destructive, so nothing released into the air went as high and it will not travel as far. Most of it is blowing out over the sea.
Is any of this good? No, it is a bad accident. Some of the workers at the plant are likely to die due to radiaton exposure and that’s a damn shame. Disrupting peoples’ lives by evacuation sucks. But let’s not exaggerate it and start yelling the sky is falling. Realistically, the quake alone killed more people, not to mention the tsunami.
Going forward what needs to happen is a thorough investigation of what happened at Fukushima so next time Something Awful Happens we’ll know how to handle it better.
I’ve taken graduate classes in both, and have a degree in one of them, which puts me ahead of most of your guys opinions.
The problem is not that the real experts are wrong. Its more that you guys generally don’t fully understand what the experts are saying. That, or you listen to sorta experts that are into fear mongering rather than a calm rational analysis of the situation.
There is large and there is large and there is Chernobyl large.
If the Japanese reactor doesnt blow sky high like Chernobyl and doesnt turn into a giant pile of burning radioactive material it CANNOT be a bad as Chernobyl. How hard is that to comprehend? My WAG is its about like comparing a tornado to a hurricane.
Don’t get me wrong. It could be pretty bad. And if someboy who actually knows WTF they are talking about comes along and says its still possible for the thing to blow the hell apart AND catch fire, I’ll eat my words (or if it actually happens 
)
Again, there is a big difference between leaking and wholesale and widespread dispersal of a decent fraction of the core material.
If you are in the edit window, I highly suggest removing your smiley face from the section I quoted. It can very easily come off the wrong way, a very very wrong way.
There’s a Brazilan wax joke somewhere in there…
Good post Broomstick.
Well, thats on those folks. Some people just need stuff to get enraged about.
I don’t think one needs to be especially thin-skinned to find it offensive that you have a smiley face next to the idea that hunks of dangerous radioactive material will go exploding about the reactor.
I know your intention was just to be friendly and joking around about your credentials, so I’m not angry…you know whatever. It’s not worth it.
I know your not angry and I do appreciate the heads up. But it wasnt a joke about my credentials (they aren’t that great) or me being right or wrong for that matter. Its more a joke about some posters around here (I’m sure everyone here can think of a few) that won’t even admit they are wrong even when reality clearly demonstrates otherwise.
Fair enough.
I’m just happy I’m not imagining aftershocks as frequently anymore. Ever had seasickness? It’s like having a mild form of that all damn day. has a shot of shouchuu
When this was suggested after Katrina, it was pointed out that all of the debris was contaminated with sewage and chemical waste.
It is not going to stay in the pit. This thing is rapidly spinning into a full meltdown and #2 reactor inner core has been breached. It’s burning and it’s going to irradiate the area at ever increasing levels if they don’t get a handle on it. Once #2 gets out of control they will have to abandon the other 3. They’re saying the other containment vessels already have cracks in them. It’s spinning out of control. This can easily turn into a suicide mission just like Chernobyl with helicopters pouring concrete on the reactors.
This isn’t BFE Russia. This is densely populated Japan. It’s not real estate that is easily given up.
Post your cites, please, for #2 reactor burning, and containment vessels with cracks.
You are the only person I’ve heard claiming such a thing. That includes foreign media, Japanese media, government officials, scientists, and other dopers. Mind if I ask where you are getting this information?
The thing I would worry most about is reactor #3. The reason for that is because it used MOX rods, which means they contain plutonium oxide. If the core to reactor 3 is damaged and there is another explosion or anything else that lets plutonium out into the open, I would want to be very far away.
It wouldn’t be the millisieverts you’d need to worry about then.
And now, a blizzard-and-cold-snap!
'Bout time. Bastards were having it too easy.
FTR, all this is happening because Japan tolerates homosexuals.
Just wanted to say that before Phelps does.
You know, I did a quick Google news search after reading your post and actually found a story about Phelps’ folks arriving in Japan. Thankfully, it was a spoof. But I wouldn’t put it past them at all.
I thought Glenn Beck already invoked the God hates Japan theme, or was that another spoof?
About the WBC and Japan I’ll keep an eye on their signs, since I live here in Topeka. I saw the whole clan yesterday afternoon at 1Oth and Gage. Must have been nostalgia for them, that’s a busy corner and where they first started picketing in the early 90’s.
FWIW, I got this in an email from one of my Japanese colleagues based in Tokyo on the radiation:
"The highest amount we got in Tokyo area today was 0.143 microSieverts/hr. This is much much lower risk than smoking. You can see the data on the radiation amount at all prefectures in Japan (in Japanese): http://eq.yahoo.co.jp/
The amount of misinformation in Japan is at crazy level. Unfortunately, ill-informed and panicked people are leaving Tokyo. I hope you form your view based on the hard data and not what you hear on some irresponsible news media."