Las Vegas Superbowl 2015 Futures Odds discussion

Listed as bet: paid

Broncos: 1:5
Seahawks: 1:3.5
49ers: 1:5
Patriots: 1:8
Packers: 1:5
Saints: 1:15
Panthers: 1:15
Colts: 1:15
EAgles: 1:15
Chiefs: 1:15

Bottom:
Bills: 1:100
Jaguars: 1:150

Others of note:
Cardinals: 1:20
Steelers: 1:25
Giants: 1:30

If you want to know any others, let me know. Most other teams are 1:20-1:30, the bottom teams are 1:40-1:75.

My thoughts:

  1. It looks like Vegas is hating on the AFC. According to them, it’s basically a two horse race between the Broncos and Pats. Even the field bet is NFC -3. Personally, I think the Broncs and Pats are too old to make it, especially with the Pats losing Hernandez and possibly Gronk.
  2. It’s hard to believe the Seahawks are this good. I was talking about it with someone the other day, and didn’t pete carroll win the superbowl in his second year as the head coach? I remember something like they went 8-8 the year before and it was considered a huge improvement.
  3. I want to bet on the Steelers, but before the draft, they were 1:30, and then right after the draft they dropped to 1:20. Now they’re back up to 1:25, and it seems really weird.

Pete Carroll’s first year was 2010 and they completely revamped the personnel, just about everybody who could be moved was moved. 2010 was also the year they made it to the playoffs with a 7-9 record, the beat the defending champion Saints in the first round.

Missed the playoffs in 2011

2012 was Wilsons first year

2013 won the Superbowl

Going into 2014 I think they have as good as shot as anyone. They have a young confident QB, a featured defense, and a great running game. The problems I see are that the 49ers and the Cardinals are going to be good as well and that can run up a bunch of losses pretty quickly.

No team in the NFL is better than the Seahawks. That is no guarantee of anything, but they’re the best bet.

I think the Broncos are horribly overrated by the odds list noted in the OP. Peyton Manning isn’t going to throw 55 touchdowns again.

I am curious as to the cumulative odds, which add up to, at an estimate, about a 150% chance someone will win the Super Bowl. The cumulative odds have to be higher than 100 because of the vig but, Jesus, that’s a lot of vig.

I’m pretty sure the Raiders and Jags are come bets, in that nobody is betting on them so the odds keep going up. When I first started checking, they were 1:75 and 1:100, but now they went up.

Try adding them up with afc vs nfc. There are also playoff numbers that appear to be exactly half of these numbers, so if one side is lopsided, that would make up the math. I would guess the AFC has higher odds overall.

Off-topic, but the odds listed in the OP are backwards. If the 49ers are “1:5”, that means that they’re expected to have a greater than 83% chance to win the Super Bowl, and that a bet of $100 will turn a profit of only $16.67 if it comes through. “5:1” is what you’re looking for.

I know, that’s why I put in the scale in the beginning. Actually, I have it as moneyline stats, which are even more confusing, eg. Bengals +2500.

Rams?

and Lions I guess

Rams 1:30
Lions 1:30