Given the sanctions being slammed on the country and its most prosperous residents, the best outcome for - I believe - every single citizen of the Russian Federation except the one man, Vladimir Putin, would be a change in President.
From a glance at the Constitution (see note), it looks like the key items of relevance for a peaceful change of President would come from chapters 4 and 5, with special notice on articles 92 and 93:
Note: This is a translation from before the 2020 amendments that Putin used to extend his presidency. Looking at the amendments, though, I don’t believe that they’re relevant to this discussion.
Or, in essence, he can be removed for “health reasons” or impeached for crimes. Otherwise, there is no way to remove the President.
As regards his “health”, given that there is no procedure written in the document for saying how one decides that the President is unable to carry out his duties, there’s probably not much more to say about that. Basically, someone in the Russian government, who scares enough people or who has enough allegiance, organizes a small coup to catch and forcibly hospitalize Putin, accounces him to have been mentally deranged, has a psychiatrist testify to that, and they hold new elections. Functionally, it’s a coup that uses the Constitution as a fig leaf. For it to occur, you need a leader to arrange it.
But the other path to removing the president, impeachment, is a) much more amenable to removing the President without any one person taking the blame and, b) may simply follow from executing the laws of the land, enshrined in the Constitution.
Now, within the Russian Constitution, they specifically declare that Russian law has precedence over international law. If the President of Russia is empowered to attack another country then it is (it reads to me) legal to do, regardless of whether Russia has signed on to the UN charter or not. The war itself, from my look at the Constitution, probably does not count as an impeachable offense. (Though, I invite others to disprove that as I have only skimmed the document and may have missed something.)
In a state of emergency or under martial law, many rules of the Constitution goes away, but “The rights and freedoms specified in Articles 20, 21, 23 (part 1), 24, 28, 34 (part 1), 40 (part 1), and 46-54 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation might not be restricted.” Russia has not declared a state of emergency/martial law. Putin can declare one but, per article 102, it must be approved by the Council of Federation (i.e. the Senate). Per article 109, Congress can’t be dissolved, even under a state of emergency/martial law.
Basically, he can’t avoid impeachment, if Congress decides to go for it. They CAN reject his attempts to disable the Constitution, he ca NOT force them to disband, and there’s NO argument to be made that he can ever get rid of several articles - implying that those ones are particularly dear to the idea of Russia.
Given that impeachment calls for “grave crimes”, those particular articles would probably be the most ripe picking:
Relevant Articles
We should also consider that the Russian Federation officially declared that Donetsk and Luhansk were territories of the Federation - extending the protections of the Russian Constitution to these regions.
Putin could, today, be quite plausibly impeached for the following crimes on Russian soil:
Article 20 - Violation of the right to life. Citizens of Donetsk and Luhansk are being deprived of their life without trial and even without cause. Putin did not wait for them to attack their fellow Russians, he didn’t send police units, he ordered soldiers in to a Russian town and told them to start shooting.
Article 40 - Violation of the right to a home. Citizens of Donetsk and Luhansk are being deprived of their homes, due to shelling and missiles destroying buildings without discrimination and without provocation by their own government.
Article 46 - Violation of the right to trial. The President did not issue an order to arrest nor capture any persons in the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk, for any specific crime, and the people under attack are not being chased by law enforcement. Nominally, the troops have been moved in to track down and capture “Nazis” but being a Nazi is not a crime, under Russian law (I don’t believe).
(On a sidenote, the people of Donetsk and Luhansk are entitled under Article 46, part 2, to go to their nearest court and protest the violations of their rights and, presumably, seek an injunction against the President.)
I would assume that there are further grave crimes available within the full body of Russian law but I believe it would be quite reasonable, already, to remove the president on those three alone.
The most likely such leader is Alexei Navalny. However, he is currently in a forced-labour camp on Putin’s orders, and is lucky to be alive after Putin’s thugs poisoned him.
Getting rid of Putin is a lot like the challenge of getting rid of Hitler – 'tis a consummation devoutly to be wish’d, but who is going to do it, and how?
For someone who can read Russian law, I would expect that there were some laws passed, after Crimea was integrated into the Federation, which explain how Ukrainian courts and lawyers are to be integrated into the Russian system.
Though, I would expect that from a practical matter, your best bet would be to find someone licensed to practice in Russia and file the case in Crimea or in the Russian federation proper.
Execution squads are popular because everyone in the pack can believe that it was another person who did the deed. Ergo, the recommendation that the legal process be followed. No one is to blame if they all did it.
“The President has been removed from office due to health concerns that make it impossible for him to continue in office.”
“What “health concern” is that, exactly?”
“Severe high-speed lead poisoning.”
Do you really think there’s going to be a legal solution to this mess? All the people in positions to carry out any of those legal options are Putin loyalists and toadies.
If you couldn’t even successfully impeach Trump when half the Congress weren’t his toadies and lickspittles, you’ll never see a Putin impeachment. A coup is literally the best we can hope for.
Fundamentally, the man only has power if you give it to him. There’s nothing to stop everyone in Russia from asking themselves if they’d rather be drinking wine, touring Europe, and sunning in Greece or shivering in a hut in Siberia, for the rest of their lives.
All it takes to not be miserable for the next few decades, waiting for Putin to die, is to choose to not be miserable. If everyone would rather be happy, Putin doesn’t need to be anything other than some fat old man yapping his head off and that everyone’s free to ignore.
Totally agree, but the same could be said for a coup.
The real difference is, how many people do you need for the legal option, vs. a coup? And also, the legal option has to be public. Sure, if “Everyone” voted to impeach him, “No one” could be personally blamed for it. But someone has to be the first to propose the vote, and make that first vote. Who can you see in Russia being the one willing to lead that charge?
A midnight coup by a small group, who presents a dead Putin to the rest of Russia as a fait accompli is much safer, on a personal level. Probably also faster.
This is Great Debates, your name was not mentioned, no one chased you down nor otherwise forced you to enter this thread nor read it, this is your first post in the thing, and I answered the questions posed to me. If you feel harangued, I don’t know what to tell you.
I agree. But a lot of Congressional action in the United States, at least, takes place behind closed doors. Someone does need to be the one to organize it and lead it, but that doesn’t mean that it can’t be done in a way that’s almost completely invisible until the last moment.
I don’t know the members of Russia’s Congress, but I see no value in assuming that they’re all an exact and precise carbon copy of one another. Likewise, I see no value in assuming that the more likely option - a coup - is the only option. There could be an enterprising, quiet, and deliberate individual who is respected by his peers in the Duma or Federal Council who could quietly feel out and lead the way for a legal solution. I don’t know that that person exists. But if he does then it certainly doesn’t hurt to put a path for him out there into the world.
This is the largest forum that I have access to and thus the most likely to percolate to through to somewhere more useful.
If I could fly to Moscow, expect to be safe, and could propose this privately to members of Russia’s government, I would do so. That is not practical nor feasible.
One way to accomplish a task is to pick one method of accomplishing it and putting 100% of your energy into that one solution. Another way is to come up with all of the ways to succeed and pushing for all or most of those avenues. Bill Gates, for example, always chose to go with the latter and most long-running companies (e.g. Bell Labs) have always had R&D as a large focus of their business. It has a higher operational cost to work that way but your company continues to exist while others eventually die and fail because their one strategy eventually fails.
Putin is unlikely to draw down on his own so, even if he loses the war and is kicked out of Ukraine, this still means that the people of Russia will go back to a Soviet-era life until the man kicks the bucket. For a near-term remedy, ousting him from office is the ONLY option. I can’t do anything to aid a coup. I can start the snowball rolling on a second path that, while less likely, isn’t impossible. It is better than no other option.
And you don’t think those currently on the ground all over Russia have the same concerns about their own imminent demise if they begin to try what you suggest?
That’s a fair answer. Venting is probably our only response to horrors. Enormous quantities of what amounts to venting has appeared over the past few years.
Sometimes, though, venting crosses over a line I see as “somebody else needs to do the hard, dirty work.” You may not have meant that, but I read it that way. I have an exactly equal right to decry that as you have to start a thread.
If you plan a coup, you do it with the expectation that the police and military side with you, during the conflict. If you judge that wrong then you will die.
If you judge it correctly then when El Presidente calls for them to go capture and kill all the coup-ists, they shrug, and ignore him.
I have no feel for the room in Russia. I don’t live there; I’m not a member of the government.
But, certainly, all of the leaders of the military and police have just lost their vacation homes and most of their money - all of which they could get back. The only thing which stops them from getting it all back is choosing to have it back and having had the communications behind the scenes to ascertain that everyone else is also thinking about making the same choice.
I did not mean it that way. If I was a member of the Russian government and had the right connections, I might have a feel for what’s possible. Based on that feeling, I might make the movements to feel some other people out. Minus that feeling or that ability, at best I would try to send an anonymous letter to someone who would have those connections and the pull to make it happen, if I could think of someone.
Minus all of that, I would just be looking at how to keep myself and my family safe.
I’ll also note the difference between Afghanistan and Ukraine.
There is nothing to have stopped the Afghani army from staying together and fighting for their country. There’s no law of the universe that President Karzai couldn’t have stayed in the country, motivated the people, and fought off the Taliban.
In Ukraine, the army stayed together and they are fighting for their country. Zelensky is staying in Kyiv and he is inspiring his people to fight for him.
In 20/20 hindsight, it is easy to say that something was impossible, inevitable, or unquestionable. For me, I don’t think that it was a given that the Afghani army did not fight. They could have. If they wanted their country, they could have come together and fought for it.
If the leaders of Russia want to keep the country that they’ve created over the last 30 years, they can keep it, they can fight for it, and they can use the tools at their disposal to have it. There is no law of the universe that says they can’t.
Reminds me of one episode of Get Smart! when 86 & 99 were in front of a firing squad. Just before the squad commander said “Fire!”, 86 shouted “About face!” and thus the dictator (IIRC, that was the firing squad commander) was killed instead.
I think the problem is that the people in Afghanistan weren’t really considering themselves as part of a nation, but rather of their local area, tribe, or clan. I may be wrong, but it sure looked that way to me.