I agree - 68 seconds is likely too much time for Ullrich to make up in the ITT. If he can somehow gain 30 seconds in the last mountain stage, the ITT looks a lot more interesting. After that, if it’s within 20 seconds - I gotta think they’ll be racing on the cobblestones of Paris rather than sipping champagne. 
What about a tie? Would both riders get the yellow jersey? I think that there should be a tie-breaker. Maybe a repeat of the Prologue. Or a one on one climb up L’Alp d’Huez.
As fun as that might be to consider, the race judges have this thing timed to the 1/100th of a second. The odds of actually having a tie is probably a billion-to-one shot …
Interesting question: provided Armstrong and Ulrich would be within 20 seconds of each other before the last day, would the peloton hold back and let them duke it out to the finish line? It WOULD be the ultimate finish to this tour!
More likely, the scenario would be as follows. Let’s say Armstrong’s ahead by 15 seconds, and Ulrich can win the Tour if and ONLY if he actually wins the stage. Easy peasy: Armstrong sends 2 or 3 teammates out on a madly fast attack, and sticks with Ulrich, not taking the lead. Three US Postal guys pacing hard would break Ulrich’s back easily, especially when they test him repeatedly. After that, all Lance has to do is stick to Jan’s wheel.
Exciting stuff, though.
Why would Jan react? Oh, right the time bonus … without the bonus it would simply be sufficient for Lance to ride along with him as long as Jan didn’t get too far ahead.
I can hardly wait till stage 19!
PS:
** (Semi-Spoiler) **
How about that Tyler Hamilton!! Is he an amazing rider or what?
I think we can say that both Lance & Tyler have ridden with “panache” now. What a great tour.
I am still learning the strategies of bike racing, and every time I open this thread, I learn a bit more. It’s just as much a chess match as it is a race, I see.
Yes, Tyler Hamilton is one tough, fast SOB. If he can ride this well with a broken clavicle, imagine how he’ll do next year riding intact (one hopes).
It’s happened before, as I’m sure the better TdF historians can tell you in more detail (I don’t remember the years or names too well). I know the second place rider attacked the yellow jersey big time on the very last stage. The yellow jersey beat him in the final sprint though, just to drive home the point that he won the overall race (he certainly didn’t need the time).
Tyler’s a frikkin’ machine. What a guy. What chutzpah. What stick-to-it-ive-ness.
At this point most people would be lying on a hospital gurney going “Sweetie! Could you go get me more ice cream? And tell the nurse I’m almost out of Darvocet, ok?”
The embrace after the race, between CSC team coach Riis and Hamilton was telling. Riis did the same thing, in 1995 IIRC.
What a solo run. What an athlete. Too bad it only got him one place, if anyone deserves a podium spot on the Champs Elysees, it’s Hamilton.
Ahhhh… but that’s the beauty of pro cycling - deals are made, and collusion is entered into.
In the 1999 race, Robbie McEwan was having a dreadful time of it trying to get any professional support from his Radobank teammates. Robbie’s a great sprinter, but his teammates that year couldn’t have led out a sprinter in a wheelchair race for old grannies.
So, seeing as how the race overall was wrapped up, and seeing as how there was a $100,000 US bonus up for grabs for the Arc de Triomph stage, Robbie approached the Director Sportif’s of the teams which contained fellow Australian riders to cut a deal. And the deal was this… lend me your Australian riders to give me an epic leadout in the final sprint, and your boys can divide up the prizemoney for the stage, and I’ll use the prestige of winning that final stage to get me a better contract than this shit team I’m in at the moment.
And that’s how it panned out. Neil Stephens, Henk Vogels, and Stuart O’Grady led Robbie to the line and he won handsomely. And the money was divided up. And Robbie got a better contract.
How do I know all this? I was on a training ride with Robbie McEwan just 3 months later. It was his off season (our summer) and he comes from my home town. He told me all about it with some relish let me tell ya!
So my point here is that Jan Ulrich has friends. Lots of them. Probably far more so than Lance Armstrong to be honest.
If it comes down to the final stage after the ITT, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some epic cross team collusion taking place.
Fair? I dunno… it’s the nature of the sport oddly enough. You can have magnanimous displays of etiquette one day, and ruthless displays of kill kill kill the next. It took me years to get used to it.
Wow… just wow. THAT’S how McEwan left Rabo?
I’m flabbergasted. More, BBF, MORE DIRT dammit!
Up to the top for the awakening Eurotrash.
A flat stage today, all the way to Bordeaux. Perhaps the cloggies have a chance today, then.
I was suprised to learn Tyler was only the sixth American to win a stage. Hmm…that doesn’t sound right - as only three American’s - LeMond, Armstrong and Hamilton have won stages. Oh - it was the sixth time an American won a stage.
Tyler smoked 'em today. The Postie Blue Train was la-di-da - good ol Tyler’s-on-a-breakaway - till Euskaltel woke up and went ruh roh - podium on the line.
I didn’t even know Zabel was -in- the TDF this year. I miss Cipo.
Question: Why did the 1989 tour end with a TT? It was on CE cobblestones, partly, right? Treacherous stuff to race on. Fignon had double-crossed and triple-crossed LeMond before. GL didn’t need nifty aerodynamic helmets and such - he’d have smoked Fignon on a good humour ice cream bike.
bling bling
It ended in a time trial because… well, shit, ask Boo Boo Foo.
And if you think a TT is dangerous on the Champs, what about a mass sprint? That’s lethal, and it’s been done before, too.
[spoiler]Woohooo! Three cloggies in the breakaway group! Just like I expected.
Van Bon, Knaven and De Groot all are in an 8 man group, with a little under 8 minutes on the peloton right now. Good stuff![/spoiler]
The 89 Tour finished with a Individual Time Trial purely as a way to follow precisely the route of the 200th annivesary of the Storming of the Bastille.
Eh! What can you say… it was a French thing. It’s their race. They change the course and the layout every year. What can you say. There’s no way they could have predicted the wa the race unfolded in the stages leading up to the final day. It was just pure luck how it panned out.
But you know, I wouldn’t be too dismissive of Fignon’s time trialling abilities. He won all four ITT’s in 83 and 84 when he won the Tour outright. Lemond was in those tours as well.
I suspect it was Le Mond’s former teammate Bernard Hinault who you might be thinking double crossed Le Mond in earlier years. Most notably, Bernard Hinault made a very famous and public promise to help Le Mond win the 86 Tour after Le Mond sacrificed his chances of winning the previous year to help Bernard win his 5th Tour. A year later, by good fortune more than anything else, Hinault found himself in yellow half way through the race and the opportunity to win an unprecedente 6th Tour de France manifested itself - and Hinault was torn between that opportunity and keeping his promise.
For about 5 days, Hinault held the yellow and chased Le Mond at every opoortunity. Some say he was helping Le Mond to vistory, some say it was a dastardly deed. Without doubt, Le Mond was the stronger rider in 86, but I think Hinault was the stronger rider in 85. It was a real tough thing for Hinault - he had to choose between fame for the ages, and being a noble man - and ultimately on L’Alpe D’Huez that year, he raised Le Mond’s hand across the finish line as they both rode clear of the rest of the field for 1st and 2nd on the day. Le Mond took the Yellow Jersey fair and square in a later ITT and the matter was closed.
But as for Laurent Fignon ever double crossing Le Mond? Ummm… I honestly don’t recall anything along those lines. They were never teammates to the best of my recollection. Maybe they were in the early days of the Renault Team - but in 83 and 84 Fignon was DEFINITELY the man - without doubt.
[spoiler]10 minutes 40 seconds, and counting! Go go go!
Others in the group are: Vincent Garcia Acosta (iBanesto.com), Salvatore Commesso (Saeco), Peter Luttenberger (CSC), Médéric Clain (Cofidis), Ivan Parra (Kelme), Christophe Mengin (FDjeux.com) and Paolo Bossoni (Vini Caldirola).[/spoiler]
Oh, man, I remember that so well! When Hinault and Lemond rode up the Alpe together… goosebumps. Thanks for the reminder.
Over 16 minutes now!
Indeedily-doodily. It was Hinault who’s hubris lit GL’s fire. BBF can you give a bit more info on the Bastille/time trial thing?
(Phil Liggett voice): He’s riding, no hands, with ease, the man from Southport! Whoa, look out a fan has a bag of food and instead of crashing Boo Boo Foo grabs the goodies, easily dispatching the granolas while munching on the kit-kats! The fans love him - wait, are they booing him? No! They cry for “Boo boo Foo!”
Bob, it appears our Lanterne Rouge is quite the crowd favourite!
Phil: Indeed, BBF has finished dead last in every tour since - at least since 1989 where he finished 3rd. Not that there’s anything wrong with that! The girls of Paris are absolutely fawning over Boo Boo! Look - even Eddy Merckx is joining in the accolades - giving BBF a helpful push…into a tavern.This is indeed the strangest, yet most wonderful tour!