Lebanese ex-PM assassinated; U.S. recalls ambassador to Syria

[Duckster]

Haven’t we gone down this road before?

[Nietzsche]

@Lemur866

And I also don’t see how the Israelis benefit. They are trying to continue the cease-fire with the PA. How does a war or insurgency in Lebanon against Syria benefit them?

The benefit to Israel is the Golan and Bekka Valley. Israel refuses to consider returning that land (annexed illegally), hence Syria refuses to pull its troops from Lebanon. Increased animosity against the Syrians by the Lebanese helps Israel by making it politically too difficult for the Lebanese government to continue the existing policy.

Syria controls Lebanon. They don’t want to leave Lebanon. Hariri, from what I know, seems to have been an obstacle to continued control of Lebanon.

An obstacle? Not even close. Perhaps he was putting pressure (and he’d be the most effective) but hardly an obstacle. He had been de-clawed diplomatically. There was no benefit for Syria to kill him and bring more unwanted attention from the world upon themselves.
The Israelis on the other hand would benefit from the increased pressure on Syria to remove its troops from Israel’s northern border.

Just because the obstacle’s removal might potentially cause outrage in various places doesn’t mean it wasn’t deemed worth it. Assad Jr. doesn’t control Syria the same way his dad did.

I disagree. He may not be as shrewd as his father, but he’s not clueless.

Captain Amazing:
Agreed, but I still don’t think his possible return to power would have signaled the end of Syrian presence in Lebanon (hence negating the notion that killing him was a necessity for Syria).

[rwjefferson]

@BrainGlutton

I want you to think long and hard about that sentence clause until you realize how utterly ridiculous it is.

I’m pretty sure a bomb that big could take out any target chosen. I did not say who was threatening, but I can assure you our ambassadors and embassies are targets. We are all hostages and potential targets to terrorists.

Does this mean you agree with the “Cone of Silence” remark ?

Peace

r~

[Lemur866]

Yeah, but:

1. Syria has no/little oil wealth
2. We’re already bogged down in Iraq
3. We want the Israeli-PA ceasefire to continue, this potentially ruins it if war breaks out in Lebanon, never mind that Lebanon is not Palestine.
4. If we wanted to undermine Syria, killing someone busy undermining Syria doesn’t seem like a high-percentage move. What if this doesn’t start a broader war, which would be the hypothesized motive?
5. If we want open war with Syria, border incursions seem like a better idea.
6. If we’re going to assassinate someone to start a war with Syria, why not assassinate some Syrians?
7. Lastly I suppose, I think we in the US are a little to quick to assume that the universe revolves around us. A guy blows up in the ME, and the first thing we think about is how it affects the US, and what the US has to gain or lose. People sometimes kill each other over there for reasons that have very little to do with US politics. It’s a little bit egocentric to assume that we are behind every major event over there. The event makes the Syrians look bad, so therefore the US is behind it? Can’t the Syrians occasionally make themselves look bad?

[annaplurabelle]

@Captain Amazing

Just so you know, Lebanon doesn’t have any oil, and Syria’s almost out…they’ll probably be a net importer within 10 years.

Lebanon has water.

[Captain_Amazing]

@Nietzsche

The benefit to Israel is the Golan and Bekka Valley. Israel refuses to consider returning that land (annexed illegally), hence Syria refuses to pull its troops from Lebanon.

Only the Golan. The Bekka Valley is still part of Lebanon. Besides, Israel and Syria were negotiating.

And, his return to power might not have itself signalled an end to Syrian dominance of Lebanon, but he would have been a serious irritant. He was creating a cross-religious coalition to get the Syrians out, and if you know anything about Lebanon, you’ll know how unusual that is.

[Captain_Amazing]

@annaplurabelle

Lebanon has water.

Yes, but unless you think the US government is trying to start a war to sieze Lebanon’s vital water supplies, that puts a hitch in Brainglutton’s “CIA plot to frame Syria” theory.

[BrainGlutton]

@rwjefferson

I’m pretty sure a bomb that big could take out any target chosen. I did not say who was threatening, but I can assure you our ambassadors and embassies are targets. We are all hostages and potential targets to terrorists.

You seemed to be implying the Syrians would take the ambassador hostage, or try to assassinate her, both of which are preposterous. What happened in Iran in 1979 will never happen again. And since an effective bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Damascus might also damage Syrian goverment buildings, it would have to done by somebody who hates Syria. Only Israel comes to mind, and I can’t see them bombing a U.S. embassy for any reason. Hezbollah, etc., have no reason to hate the Syrians. Besides, I’m sure every U.S. Embassy has massive security precautions, nowadays, against just that kind of threat? So why wasn’t the ambassador safe in Damascus? In any case, I know she wasn’t recalled to ensure her safety; the Admin isn’t even pretending that. They did it to send Syria a message that we’re not happy with their occupation of Lebanon – or else, that they should be keeping Lebanon under tighter control – that part isn’t clear. See http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/02/16/beirut.explosion/index.html:

[Hariri’s] funeral comes as U.S. pressure mounts on Syria in the wake of the deadly blast in Lebanon that killed Hariri, with Washington recalling its ambassador from Syria.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Tuesday Syria was “unfortunately on a path right now where relations are not improving, but are worsening.”

Rice did not blame Syria for Monday’s bomb attack that, but she did challenge Syria’s long-standing claim that its troops were needed in Lebanon to provide security.

“There is no doubt that the conditions created by Syria’s presence there have created a destabilized situation in Lebanon,” she said.

Syria’s Ambassador to the U.S., Imad Moustapha, was quick to return the verbal blows.

In a thinly veiled jab at Washington, he said accusations that Syria is supporting terrorism are akin to claims, later disproved, that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction in the lead-up to the war.

“If anyone is trying to politically score some points against Syria, I would say … this would be shameful,” he told CNN.

Meanwhile, U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said Washington has “made it clear” it wants Syria, which maintains some 13,000 troops in Lebanon, to use its influence to prevent attacks such as Monday’s massive bombing.

“I have been very careful to say we really don’t know who committed this murder at this point, but we do know what effect the Syrian presence in Lebanon has,” Boucher said. “And we do know that it doesn’t bring security for Lebanese.”

After already handing Syria a strongly worded letter from the U.S. government, U.S. Ambassador to Syria Margaret Scobey was meeting with the Syrian foreign minister Wednesday before leaving Damascus for “urgent consultations” in Washington.

Rice ordered Scobey back on Tuesday, citing a “growing list of differences with the Syrian government.” The reason for Scobey’s meeting with Foreign Minister Farook Al-Shar’a was not made public.

In addition to Syria’s troops in Lebanon, Boucher said the United States has concerns about “the continued presence and operational activities of international terrorist groups, and of the Iranian regime on and through Syrian territory, and the use of Syrian territory by the Iraqi insurgency.”

[clairobscur]

Does anybody knows what the stance of the Israeli government (if any) on this issue.

rather than official statements, I’m refering to unofficial ones, like so-called “leaks” or comments from “knowledgeable sources”.

[Rashak_Mani]

Well the US was quite quick to start finger pointing and blaming… maybe they knew something before ?

[Alessan]

What the blazes does the Golan have to do with Lebanon? It was never Lebanese territory. Map

clairobscur - so far, nothing. The Israeli administration knows that any comment whatsoever would be to its detriment. Blaming Syria, for instance, would just have people saying “Ah-ha!”

[Captain_Amazing]

@Alessan

What the blazes does the Golan have to do with Lebanon? It was never Lebanese territory. Map"

I think they’re proposing some sort of theory in which Israel kills an anti-Syrian Lebanese politician knowing that the world will blame Syria, and then Israel doesn’t have to give back the Golan or something like that?

[Nietzsche]

@Captain Amazing

Only the Golan. The Bekka Valley is still part of Lebanon.

Regardless of who’s territory it is, Israel poses a threat to Syria with it’s presense of troops and therefore Syria refuses to remove its troops (mostly by funding and arming Hezbollah).

Besides, Israel and Syria were negotiating.

Since when? Last I heard, the talks broke down three or four years ago and haven’t resumed since. There have been several overtures by both sides since (most recently here), but I hadn’t read nor heard anything that says they were talking again.

And, his return to power might not have itself signalled an end to Syrian dominance of Lebanon, but he would have been a serious irritant. He was creating a cross-religious coalition to get the Syrians out, and if you know anything about Lebanon, you’ll know how unusual that is.

Agreed, but he went from mere irritant to martyr. Now it’s going to be much more difficult for MP’s to support Syrian presence and whomever fills Hariri’s void will have an easier time amassing a coalition (which would benefit Israel’s position).

Alessan: I wasn’t suggesting it is or ever was a part of Lebanon.

[Captain_Amazing]

@Nietzsche

Regardless of who’s territory it is, Israel poses a threat to Syria with it’s presense of troops and therefore Syria refuses to remove its troops (mostly by funding and arming Hezbollah).

That works both ways, of course. Syrian troops in the Bekka Valley pose a threat to Israel

Since when? Last I heard, the talks broke down three or four years ago and haven’t resumed since. There have been several overtures by both sides since (most recently here), but I hadn’t read nor heard anything that says they were talking again.

I must have been wrong about the talks then. I thought there was something going on to work out a peace treaty, but I guess not.

[Ryan_Liam]

@Rashak Mani

Well the US was quite quick to start finger pointing and blaming… maybe they knew something before ?

:rolleyes:

I believe it to be the Zionists and the Americans, in conjunction with, the saucer people

[Alessan]

1. I don’t see how the Syrian presence in Lebanon can serve as a protective measure against Israel. If Israel wanted to invade, why would we go the long way around, instead of going straight through the Golan to Damascus?

2. Even if it does serve some defensive pupose, does Syria have the right to occupy Lebanon, even for its own protection? If so, does Israel also have the right to (re)occupy Lebanon in order to protect itself from Syria?

Can country A invade country B in order to protect itself from country C?

[Alessan]

@vibrotronica

Anybody else getting a kind of Archduke Ferdinand feeling from this?

Now, the question is - was Gabrillo Princip working for the Germans or the British?

[BrainGlutton]

Update, from http://www.cnn.com/2005/ALLPOLITICS/02/17/bush.ap/index.html:

WASHINGTON (AP) – President Bush on Thursday said Syria is “out of step” with other nations in the Middle East and said the United States will work with other countries to pressure Damascus to remove its troops from Lebanon.

<snip>

The United States has withdrawn its ambassador to Syria, Margaret Scobey, and that “indicates that the relationship is not moving forward,” the president said. He said Syria was "out of step with the progress being made in the greater Middle East."

The United States expects Syria to find and turn over former supporters of Saddam Hussein’s regime and send them back to Iraq and stop supporting terrorism, Bush said. He said Syria also must comply with U.N. resolutions calling for it to withdraw from Lebanon.

:rolleyes: “Progress” in the ME? Where Iraq is a bloody mess and most other countries are still dictatorships and the Occupied Territories are still occupied? What planet does this guy live on?

[Neurotik]

@Alessan

Now, the question is - was Gabrillo Princip working for the Germans or the British?

Not the Jews? I’m pretty sure it was the Jews.

[Neurotik]

@BrainGlutton

:rolleyes: “Progress” in the ME? Where Iraq is a bloody mess and most other countries are still dictatorships and the Occupied Territories are still occupied? What planet does this guy live on?

The planet where Israel is beginning the process of pulling out of the territories, and the Palestinian leadership is toning it down a notch. The planet where, while Iraq is a disaster, it at least has a pretense of democracy going for.