Today President Bashar Assad of Syria announced plans to gradually withdraw Syrian troops from Lebanon. http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/03/05/syria/index.html I guess that’s a good thing . . . But the Syrians originally sent their troops into Lebanon, in 1976, to put down the raging multi-sided civil war there (Maronite Christians vs. Sunni Muslims vs. Shi’ite Muslims vs. Druze, plus the PLO using southern Lebanon for base camps). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_Civil_War The Syrians mostly put a stop to that – but just because the different groups haven’t had a chance to hash out their differences on the battlefield doesn’t mean they’ve learned to love each other. It occurs to me that the Syrians might have created, or preserved, a situation like Communist rule in Yugoslavia: It might have put a lid on the ethnic-religious hatreds, but they’re still there, festering under the surface, and if control is removed . . .
Have the Lebanese matured enough to rule themselves as a democratic, multiethnic, multireligious society? Or will the old civil war break out again as soon as the Syrians leave?
Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department says a phased withdrawal with no timetable for completion is “not enough.” http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7100068/ Bush demands a complete withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon before the next Lebanese election, scheduled for May.
One reason Syria has held out so long in Lebanon is to have a negotiating chip with Israel if it’s ever needed. Packing it in may mean they have no plans to seek a change in current relations and have accepted a sort of close-range Cold War. Besides which, they have to realize at this point that there’s no consensus for any Pan-Arab war against Israel, so maintaining readiness for one is pointless.
I wouldn’t go that far back. The concept of a general war in the Mideast remained thinkable (if unlikely) well through the 80s, the peak period for many of the terrorist groups we’ve all come to know and want bombed. But after Camp David the likelihood of such a war diminished, and slowly died out.
But remember, the Syrians knuckled under when pressure was applied. They may be a decade behind the times here, but that can be accounted for by inertia. It’s not like they’re gaining anything, it’s just that they’re losing far less than they would otherwise.
Less than most people are reading into it, I imagine. It makes it easier for them to flourish as a democracy, but it’s not like Syria was the only stumbling block there. They’ll probably have to start facing periodic Israeli incursions if the Syrians do pull all the way out. And there’s plenty of bitter infighting to go around, Syrians or no.
Why? What would be the point? The Hezbollah in Lebanon aren’t that much of a threat to Israel any more, are they? When’s the last time they staged a border raid?
I’m not sure that Inertia was enough to explain Syrian presence for so long. I would like to suggest that Saddam provided an example for much of that time of a leader who was put upon by the whole world, and yet still retained his position at home as well as some prestige regionally. Not something to aspire to, surely, but also an example of how to defy UN resolutions, international pressure, and still maintain an agressive posture in the region.
As to the OP. I don’t know. There clearly will be lots of other issues to resolve before Lebenon becomes a functioning democracy. Could any of those be addressed, however, if Syria was still there? Would there be pressure of any kind on Hezbollah to reduce their operations if Syria does not withdraw? Was there any action from groups opposed to Syrian occupation before the recent events?
The presence of Syrian troops and defacto Syrian rule was certainly not the only roadblock to Lebanese freedom. But was it the primary one?
Whats Hezbollah’s primary mission again? Their reason for being? I forget…
Initially I’m not sure. In the long run I’d say yes, though not definitely. Basically its too early to tell…after all Syria hasn’t withdrawn yet. They have only talked about it. Also, I’m unsure how much international support Lebanon will get…a little or a lot, it makes a huge difference as to the outcome.
Syria and Hizbolla may well take comfort in todays events :
"200,000 join pro-Syria Beirut protest
An estimated 200,000 pro-Syria demonstrators took to the streets of the Lebanese capital Beirut today to protest at foreign meddling in the country’s politics and to counter weeks of anti-Syrian rallies.
<snip>
Yesterday, in the biggest demonstration yet of anti-Syrian furore, more than 70,000 Lebanese shouting “Freedom! Sovereignty! Independence!” thronged central Beirut. The demonstrators waved the Lebanese flag and thundered, “Syria out!” "
From here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/syria/story/0,13031,1433038,00.html
So, 70,000 anti Syria vs 200,000 pro Syria.
The US admins plans for the domino effect may just end up in civil war. And if Israel starts to militarily support the anti Syrian groups we may see the seeds of something much worse.
Around half a million pro-Syria demonstrators took to the streets of the Lebanese capital Beirut today to protest at foreign meddling in the country’s politics and to counter weeks of anti-Syrian rallies. "
Which, again, raises the question: Are we seeing the opening stages of a fully independent Lebanese democracy – or the opening stages of yet another Lebanese Civil War?
Hard to say. It was pointed out in a Washington Post opinion article (don’t remember the author) that it was actually a good sign that the pro-Syrian/Hezbollah rally occurred, as it’s a sign that even Hezbollah recognizes the need to appear as if it is acting peacefully in the name of mass support.
The question for Lebanon is pretty much the same question as for Iraq- once one side is defeated in the political arena, do they withdraw from the government and begin a terrorist campaign to reach their objectives (the Communist/Monarchist solution to the Weimar Republic, which helped give legs to the Nazi movement), or do they simply pick up and jump back into the political ring to slug it out more?