Let's Face It. The World As We Have Known It Is Coming To An End.

Great Debates
1

Our present global consumer infrastructure has grown to where it is on a base of 150 years of cheap oil and is, along with the our global financial “system”, now entirely dependent on an exponential increase in demand upon this finite resource which is becoming increasingly more costly to extract.

For reference, I offer this. , http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article25458.htm , a 70+ min video here presented in 8 parts. Described by one wag as the most boring yet most important video you have will ever see, it is required viewing for anyone who hopes to leave anything to their grandchildren, IMHO.

Peak Oil, whether you see it as here now or 50 years in the future is an obvious fact of life. Oil/fuel/food prices will eventually rise to a point where our present way of life will TOTALLY collapse into the 19th century. There will be no “technological advances” or “energy alternatives” that can possibly avoid this dramatic denouement.

What will your 19th century world look like? When the grid finally goes down and the trucks stop rolling into Safeway and Walmart, where do you and your kids want to be?

At age 69, I’ll probably be out of here by the time the shit really hits the fan. Before my minimum SS retirement stipend is shit-canned and our “govt” loses all credibility, I expect to be in a happier place.

But, I offer some advice to those of you who will have the fortune to deal with the world when our corporate masters have withdrawn into their self-sustainable razor wired, Blackwater defended enclaves stocked with single malt and have left us to fend for ourselves.

Some suggestions for moving comfortably thru our inevitable transition to a simpler way of life.

  1. Give.Up.Useless.Political.Rants and start talking about the need to communalize. That’s where I am at the moment.

  2. Move to a rural community with surface water and a decent agricultural climate and organize. There is still time to bring with you and stock up on some 21st century technology. Local solar and wind powered illumination and DC power tools, wifi and cell phone networks are, at the moment, not out of the question. Stores of Bic lighters, plastic shopping bags, PVC and penicillin would obviously be of benefit. All these will pass into history but by that time, perhaps, we will have learned to get by without them.

  3. Establish community greenhouses, encourage backyard gardens and chicken houses and create Commons for maintaining small herds/flocks of domesticated food and traction animals. Hire a blacksmith to run a smithy apprenticeship program thru the local high school. Encourage other towns in your bio region to join you.

I leave the details to you, although, if you get things going, I want the global buggy whip concession.

All discussion is in your hands. I’ll sit on mine for a while. Special tanks to tomndebb. May they always be full.

Me, I’m outta here. God bless. I will address any serious apolitical questions.

2

Energy alternatives already exist to avoid our present way of life TOTALLY collapsing into the 19th century. Nuclear power gives us electricity; the grid never goes down. Electricity gives us electric cars and trucks, which still roll into Safeway and Walmart (if only as far as from the electric train station loading dock). So current technology alone is enough to keep us at least in the mid-twentieth century.

Does this mean that nothing will change? Nope - in the worst case prices for things will rise and personal transportation will devolve in range to the point where it effects people’s daily lives and behaviors rather dramatically - though not as dramatically as you say.

Summary: Your OP is a post-apocalyptic fantasy based on a clearly false premise. Cheers.

3

You ever heard of electricity? Remember how back in the 19th century houses didn’t have electricity? And here in the 21st century they do? And did you know what electricity is not generated by burning oil?

We may see the end of gasoline powered personal cars. That doesn’t mean a collapse back to Little House on the Prairie, because even if every drop of oil vanishes within a decade, there have been other technologies invented since the 19th century besides the internal combustion engine.

4

And cheers to us all.

I see it as an indisputable pre-apocalyptic factuality. Watch the video, please. Argue with Dr. Bartlett, please. Once you’ve convinced yourself that he’s nailed the problem, let’s talk about local solutions.

5

Could these Commons be used to display Evile-Doers who have been put into the Stocks for Fornication or would that disrupt the herding of the traction animals? Also, our bio-region doesn’t have a lot of mineral deposits (apart from the Daemon Quicksilvre which causes many Maladies) – would it make sense to have our Blacksmythe teach auto repair or HVAC instead?

6

This again. As pointed out, a theory that pretends nuclear power doesn’t exist fails on the face of it.

And at any rate, forget your agrarian utopian fantasies; you’ll just end up as the slaves of whatever warlord happens to be nearest and strongest. That’s what happens in the real world when societies collapse. You can’t just cut a whole community off in a bubble.

Frankly, if you want to prepare for The End Of It All, forget utopianism and go the survivalist route; build a cabin far out in the wilderness and eke out a living where no one can find you.

7

People have been predicting the end of their era for thousands of years. We never learn.

8

I’m not in a position to watch an hour+ of video right now. So, please quote or summarize Bartlett for the rest of us. Start with the part where he addresses nuclear power, and go from there.

9

I’ve got a better idea. How about you watch Dr. Bartlett’s hour-long video, until you are either convinced that we are right, or that you have a logical rebuttal to the suggestion that we can use nuclear and other non-petroleum-based energy sources to avoid your supposed end of modern civilisation. Then you can either tell us why we should think you’re right, or you can drop the nihilistic glee.

10

Well, to be fair in a variety of places just that has happened. Civilizations have fallen.

11

But forget about the oil expended in building these coal, nuke and hydro powered energy producers, HTF do you distribute it without petroplastic shielded wiring? In the 19th century, there were local power producers. Without plastic, they solved the ‘short’ problem by wrapping coarse extruded copper in cotton cloth and nailing the home leads (well separated) to wood plaques. I can imagine how they managed to set the distribution poles, hungry mules pulling them on site and hungry people with shovels setting them, I opine. Oil is the difference.

Just for the sake a argument, name one.

12

Peak oil has been happening tomorrow since 1975. Color me unimpressed at the left-wing equivalent of Christian millenialists masturbating themselves to orgasm in glee over what they think is an inherently corrupt world finally getting its just deserts.

13

Reported. Mods, bring down the hammer.

14

All the existing plastic is still around - ever heard of recycling? Not to mention all the existing wires - ever heard of not recycling?

15

Um, what do you think you are typing on?

If you meant energy technologies, nuclear has already been mentioned.

16

Technology is also enabling ever-less-power-hungry appliances (of all stripes). Everything from refrigerators to cars to lightbulbs to computer chips to displays are constantly being redesigned so as to use less and less power.

But as to your first point: Yes, our world will look different in the future. The world of 1910 was utterly different from the world of 2010. Vast numbers of people lived and worked on family farms. Today, almost no one does. Back then, the telegraph and the next-morning’s newspaper were the fastest ways to get information to the public (assuming your small farm town even got a paper on a daily basis—more likely, you’d get mailed something once a week). Today, we’re deluged in real-time communications from mass media outlets AND individuals. Hell—the world is utterly different now in regards to that as compared to 1980! Think of what the roads were like in 1910, and how long it would take you to get from coast to coast in the US without using the railroad. Think about the roads now, post-Eisenhower, and the ease with which we hop jet aircraft.

The world will look quite different 100 years from now. But I don’t think we’ll throw up our hands and resort to the smithy just because oil is harder to come by.

17

I live in the suburbs of a city. We have so much water available that we pump it directly from the ground in giant river fountains rather than pump it from the river. There are more trees per square foot than farm land and gardens are 1 growing season away from becoming the norm.

As oil is depleted we will transition to new power sources. It’s happening as we speak and will be as seamless as the CD was as a replacement for floppy disks or DVD’s for VHS tape. We have all the technology necessary to make any changes now. As time passes, the high cost of these technologies will come down to where it will be an everyday expense.

18

We might lose private and commercial aircraft and find (high-speed electric) trains looking more and more appealing as a replacement, though. Personal transport is the aspect of society that I’d expect to be most effected by peak oil, possibly to the point of making cross-country drives difficult or infeasable to the majority of the general public.

It will never come to the point of commercial shipping collapsing, though.

19

Until someone comes up with a good reason for me to choose a pound uranium over 6 ozs of prime rib, pass the bisquits, please.

20

I look forward to the return of the Stanley Steamer, myself.