At the risk of subjecting myself to a flamefest…
I would like to get back to the issue of profiling for a minute, because I still think there is a lot of fuzzy thinking going on, on both sides, and I’d like to clarify this issue. It’s worth doing.
First, let’s separate efficacy from morality. Just because profiling would be EFFECTIVE does not make it RIGHT. Okay? As a libertarian-leaning person, I have serious issues with the civil rights implications of profiling.
But as to whether it would be more effective than just taking samples of the population at random… OF COURSE IT WOULD.
Those of you who point to the IRA and Timothy McVeigh as counterexamples miss the point. Profiling is not done because peole believe that it’s impossible for their to be blonde female terrorists. Profiling is all about statistical populations and percentages. It’s a way of increasing the ‘hit rate’ from your samples.
Anyone who doesn’t believe that this is effective, I have a wager for them.
I will wager $100, even money, that the next terrorist attack comes from a male.
I will wager $100 that the next terrorist attack is carried out by someone under 50 years of age. And I’ll even give you 2-1 odds on that one.
I will wager $100 that the next terrorist attack is carried out by someone who has dark hair.
I will wager $100 that the next terrorist attack is carried out by a Muslim.
Now, this says nothing about Muslims, or Arabs, or blondes, or males, or anything else. The fact is, the vast number of terrorists in the world that we are personally worried about happen to come from Muslim communities. I’m not going to speculate why this is, and I’m damned sure not going to blame the religion. Maybe this is just an accident of geography - perhaps if the people in the situation of middle-east muslims were left-handed Zoroastrians, we’d be profiling people by tossing them a softball to see which hand they catch it in. But it’s the height of politically-correct idiocy to try to claim that the population of terrorists spans across the wider world population in even numbers, simply because you oppose racism, sexism, or any other ism. These are ethical problems, not statements of fact.
Or put another way: Go to Vegas, and tell a bookie there that you want to place a bet that the next terrorist attack will be carried out by a Muslim. Do you think a bookie would take that bet? I sure as hell wouldn’t. More likely, he’d want you to put up $1000 to his $100 in order to take that bet.
Now, there’s another issue, and that’s the risk of a counter-strategy. In other words, if you start profiling only black-haired young males, it won’t take long for terrorists to realize that the easiest way to smuggle a bomb on a plane is to put it in the handbag of an old granny. And there will be a run on blonde hair dye in terrorist circles. And there are women in the cause - they’ll become the new front-line troops, wearing nice dresses and blonde hair. That’s a practical argument against profiling 100%, but then it becomes a matter of game theory. How much profiling is optimal? Focusing 70% on young black haired males? 80%? If the population of terrorists in the wider population is skewed and not uniform, then profiling WILL be more effective than random sampling. And the rough game-theoretic rate at which you should profile would be roughly at the same percentage as the skew in the population. In other words, if 70% of terrorists are young black-haired males, then about 70% of the people you search should also be young, black haired males. The exact optimal profiling ratio will depend on counter-measures, error bars in guessing the terrorist population, etc.
It’s not a simple problem, but it is one that can be analyzed, and a reasonably optimal searching strategy can be developed. Whatever it is, it will NOT be a random sample of everyone going through the gates at an airport. That may be the moral way to do it, but it’s certainly not the most efficient.
Again, let me repeat myself - whether profiling is EFFICIENT and EFFECTIVE is not the same as saying it’s RIGHT. It’s simply fuzzy thinking to try and argue that it isn’t effective, simply because you don’t think it’s right.