So, I was in a discussion this weekend with a Peak Oil™ advocate who was, again, touting that we are in the end game of Peak Oil™ and soon, the entire world, economy, society, culture, etc was going to collapse. Apparently Covid is a deep cover plot by all the world powers, but run specifically by China and the US (working together ) to manufacture this crisis in a bid to either cover up the coming of Peak Oil™ or to try and buy society time before the crash by forcing people to use less oil. Or something. It wasn’t really clear.
Needless to say, my own eyes are sore even now from all the eye rolling, but I thought it might be an interesting discussion about what we could or would do if Peak Oil™ was happening. So, let’s start with what Peak Oil™ is. Basically, Peak Oil™ (as opposed to just peak oil or peak anything) is the theory that oil is rapidly running out and that this will cause the sudden decline of society as we run out of oil and our entire world crashes to a halt. At best, we go back to a 19th century world of steam and horses, at worse, dogs and cats start living together. This isn’t about the reality that oil production might have peaked because of market forces and a transition to another commodity or paradigm, but the rapid downward trend of society due to running out of oil causing prices to rocket up to the point that few can afford to buy it anymore.
So, let’s say that happens. In the next 5 years we find out that the oil is running out and that, in 5 years time the production of oil will drop so low that it’s no longer enough to run even a fraction of the demand, meaning that all industries and transportation that requires oil will be severely impacted. So, a quick Google search indicates that the world oil production per day is around 80 million barrels. Let’s say that in this scenario within that 5 years, that drops to 8 million barrels total production per day for the world, but that this level is sustainable for 20 years, and after that it will drop to 800k barrels a day for the next 20 years, then 80k barrels a day after that. What happens? What could we do?
I know this is kind of a silly OP and that this is complete non-sense, but with all the bad stuff going on today I thought it might be diverting.