Let's say Nader croaks before the election

Note to Mods: I am not wishing death upon Nader, at least not on this forum.

But…

If Nader were to die in, say, the first week of October…

Would that guarantee a Kerry victory as Nader voters en masse switched their votes to Kerry or would there be little to no effect because Nader voters would stay home?

Explain your reasoning and show your work.

What Nader voters?

I would speculate that a significant number of former Nader supporters would switch their allegiance to Michael Badnarik or Walt Brown or some other third party candidate. I’m guessing any Nader voter who was considering switching to Kerry would have done so by now. The ones who are left are the ones who want to go through the motions of participating in democracy while avoiding the stigma of actually voting for a candidate who’ll get elected.

I agree with Little Nemo except that voting for someone who won’t win isn’t just “going through the motions”. I don’t see any great upswing for Kerry because there are other alternatives such as David Cobb, the standard bearer for us Greens.

everyone would be really sad.

um, the quixotes would switch their votes to Jimmy Carter?

I think it would help Kerry some, & the Greens some.