A new guy isn’t going to displace someone who people have been watching for over 20 years. There is no one who could beat either Leno or Letterman within the first few months of their debut.
That said, it looks like both Leno and Letterman are going to be gone within four years max. I would be out securing who would be the best with them gone, and not who can compete with them directly.
Yeah, it’s time for the networks to worry more about who they’ve got on the farm team when Letterman and Leno go.
I think Craig Ferguson is the best late night talk show host currently working. But I’m not sure he can take his personality to 11:30 and live within the restrictions that will be placed on him. He’s a guy who really chafes at being safe and conformist. I wouldn’t be surprised if her turned down the 11:35 slot even if it was offered to him.
I don’t watch Jimmy Fallon, so I don’t really have an opinion of him. Is he someone that could carry The Tonight Show?
If not, then the networks have to start worrying about finding hosts to replace the big dogs when they retire.
These 11:30 talk shows are getting to be dinosaurs in the age of cable and broadband. It doesn’t matter who they put in there, they’ll never approach the dominance of Carson in his prime. I’d like to see Conan get it so Leno could kick his ass.
With so many DVRs now I wonder how many people watch the late shows live now vs. watching them later from their DVR. Of course many people who watch them later fast forward through the commercials.
Maybe this is why Larry King left CNN…
Isn’t Conan doing pretty decent against Leno airing on cable TV? I tend to think he’d do better against him on a network.
I often start watching 10 or 15 minutes late, so I can zip through the ads. (Did you know there’s about 17 minutes of ads in Letterman’s show? I haven’t measured the others.) But even when I’m watching “live,” I always mute the commercials anyway. I HATE commercials.
It’s not just the total running time of commericals, its how much longer the later breaks in the shows last. I sometimes have had to skip more than 5 minutes of commercials between segments of Ferguson’s show.
All the late shows are now 62 minutes , I assume the extra 2 are for more commercials. Local news is 35 minutes so they can run extra commercials.