Well, breaking news today is that Libya has announced that it is giving up ALL its WMD programs, and allowing full transparent inspections of its country.
So, is this a sign that Bush’s Middle East policy is working? I seem to recall the anti-war folks on this board saying that the Iraq war would cause the Middle East to erupt into flames, cause a race to get more WMDs by the other outlaw nations in order to prevent an attack, etc. Some of us argued that with Saddam gone there would be less reason to have those weapons (no need to defend against Saddam), and that his ouster would act as a powerful incentive for other dictators to get into line.
Plus, we argued that the example of freedom and democracy in the middle of the region would spark pro-democracy movements in other countries, and help crack open the sea of dictatorships in the Middle East.
So, is that happening? A couple of days ago I linked to a pro-democracy demonstration in Syria of all places. And now Libya is giving up its WMDs without the U.S. having to fire a shot. Looks like another feather in Bush and Blair’s cap.
Wow. This is an amazing statement. Who gives a shit? We just got one of the most troublesome nations to voluntarily give up its WMD programs, including a pretty advanced nuclear program that was enriching uranium, and was close to achieving a nuclear bomb. He also had a stockpile of chemical weapons.
For you to say, “Who gives a shit” speaks volumes for your unwillingness to admit that the Bush administration might have achieved something really positive.
Squink: I don’t get your point. Are you saying that Clinton deserves the credit for Libya? Maybe you should have included the next paragraph:
The fact of the matter is that there is enough credit to go not just to GW, but to Reagan as well for sending a clear message to governments that if you pull this kind of stuff we will come after you. GW is just reminding them of Reagan’s commiment. Its too bad they forgot it durning the 8 years that Clinton was too busy getting his willy wacked to do anything significant about things like
Post Iraq Ergo Propter Iraq: the logical fallacy that assumes that any good thing that results after May, 2004, is the direct consequence of American action in Iraq.
As for Werewolf’s sense of deja voodoo, I can top that. I had the TV off and turned on CNN just in time to hear a buzz of words “Libya…important announcement…Bush…” Oh, no, I thought. Oh, fucking no!
And then I remembered: our army is already deployed! We would have to hit the shores of Tripoli with Eagle Scouts!
First off, it seems to me this is more a matter of Quadaffy Duck wising up than any thing else. This thing has been in the works since the Libyans began moving to settle the Lockerbie issue. Indeed, GeeDubya himself noted that the discussions had been underway for nine months, some time before our glorious adventure began in earnest.
One couldn’t help but notice in GeeDubyas eager clamor for the laurels Sam is even more eager to bestow, he couldn’t help taking a passing effort: his perfectly hilarious suggestion that the US was acting to enforce the will of the very UN he so heartily bitch-slapped only a few months before.
The science of making such a weapon can be found at your nearest university. I’m sure Libya has at least 1 citizen that is capable of it. The “art” of making a weapon is more complicated and requires time. Making it small enough to mount on a missile requires money.
In 1980 it was an absolute certainty that smaller nations would perfect a nuclear weapon. Iraq was slowed by Israel so Pakistan was first out of the gate in that region. Now you have India and N Korea. Soon you will have Iran. What makes Libya so inept? Why would they NOT attempt it, given the events of Lockerbie?
“Libya is no position to obtain access to nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future, given the extremely limited domestic technical base of the country.”
“Libya’s biological warfare program is believed to remain in the early research and development phase. Progress has been slow due in part to an inadequate scientific and technical base”
“Libya has experienced major setbacks to its chemical warfare program, first as a result of intense public scrutiny focused on its Rabta facility in the late 1980s and more recently on its Tarhuna underground facility. Nevertheless, Libya retains a small inventory of chemical weap-ons, as well as the a CW agent production capability.”
So basically Libya has a few chemical weapons but little else. Getting it to abandon this is hardly some great geo-political coup. In particular it’s marginal compared to the enormous failure so far of the Bush policy towards North Korea.
Lybia had started to turn around many years ago. Maybe the Reagan ordered bombing started it and the UN sanctions reinforced it but I do not think recent events have had any decisive effect. If I had to choose one single factor I would say the UN sanctions. Lybia had been wanting to get rid of the sanctions for a long time and had been working toward that end. It has recently signed contracts with several European countries for the sale of natural gas and for the construction of an underwater gasoduct to Italy. Spanish prime minister Aznar visited Ghadaffi in Lybia some months ago to talk trade and other issues. I think sanctions and trade are the key here. I doubt Iraq had anything to do. Especially since this course was started way before Iraq or even before 9/11/2001.
CyberPundit, You left out a few quotes from the same article:
*In 1975 Libya had ratified the United Nations (UN) Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty signed by the Idris regime in 1969. In 1980 an agreement was reached with the International Atomic Energy Agency placing all of Libya’s nuclear installations under international inspection. Despite these steps, in the mid- and late 1970s, **Qadhafi repeatedly proclaimed his country’s determination to acquire nuclear weapons, primarily because he was convinced that his archenemy, Israel, had achieved such a military capability. **
A 10-megawatt nuclear research reactor supplied by the Soviet Union in 1979 was installed at a research center at Tajura near Tripoli staffed by 750 Libyan specialists and technicians. Many students were sent abroad; a group of 200 was studying in the United States until early 1983 when the United States proscribed training Libyans in nuclear science
Libya had a theoretical capability of delivering nuclear weapons in the form of Scud and FROG missiles and missiles delivered by medium-range Tu-22 bombers*
There is quite a few other cites reporting the same thing. Basically the Libyans are admitting it so you do not have to believe Bush & Blair you can now believe Gadhafi (must be comforting).
