Yep, us fuzzy headed lefties think the only valid measure of progress is GDP. No wait, we don’t. Nor most economic measures, except perhaps Gini co-efficients. I prefer the Human Development Index.
Venezuela has made more progress under Chavez than it did in the previous two decades. Your GDP figures show the same. Only $2500 growth over 30 years, then $1300 over the last decade. I know which period I would have preferred to live in Banana Land.
The Gini has also dropped dropped from 47.6 to 43.4 over the last five years. That could be due the wealthy dropping down because of the financial crisis, rather than lifting the poor up, but I think it is a good deal of both, especially since the HDI indicators for health and education has continued to rise even after the crisis hit.
Libya’s HDI? It looks good on the surface, but there is no data for any inequality-adjusted measures or poverty measures, so I think it reflects more on how well Gaddafi has done, not the people.
Bibliovore, have you been successful in helping with the aid process? Best news I heard today was Secretary Clinton saying two C-130s were delivering aid supplies to Tunisia to help the refugees there. That aid is mostly for the foreign workers stuck there, but hopefully a flight will be heading toward Benghazi soon.
A policy wonk stated that while Gates is right about needing to take out air defense over Tripoli to enforce a no-fly zone there, that is not the case in the east.
My favorite story last night was about an eleven year old directing traffic in Benghazi too. And he was doing a good job.
I think Libya is going to be a great country once it is free.
Clearly, he does not have the firepower to take back the parts of the country he has lost. And also clear that even Tripoli hates him. How long can he even pretend to be running a national government under those circumstances?
And thus the fears that the situation will bog down into a lengthy stalemate, with Ka-Daffy hunkered down in his palace and his supporters retaining Tripoli.
Not clear at all. He has made inroads.
No, he has made efforts, which so far have killed a few rebels* but failed to regain him any lost towns.
*A term at this point applicable to most of the adult population of Libya.
Probably just as long as it takes for the rebels to get to him and kill him. Gaddafi strikes me as the kind of deluded guy who’ll be certain that the populace loves him and it’s all a CIA/Al Qaeda/whatever plot right up to the point he gets shot. Ceausescu* of Romania was like that IIRC; apparently he and his wife went to their deaths sure they were beloved of their people.
- And thank goodness the spellchecker knew that name
I think his forces will put up mostly token resistance when the rebels make concerted advances. I think the material position of the rebels will continue to improve while Gaddafi is only losing forces with further desertions from here on out. He will probably lash out a few more times as the rebels consolidate their positions around him, and the battle for Tripoli itself will probably be bitter, but I doubt he can turn his fate around now.
I wish it were true that Kadaffy is losing ground. But the fact suggest otherwise. He has soldiers that are better equipped than the rebels and are fighting just as hard. Don’t let the fact that Gadaffy is nuts and repulsive cloud the truth. it could be a long hard battle with the Libyan soldiers having a lot of advantages. If enough people are willing to fight and die to throw him over, they can win. But it appears the price will be huge.
Over 300.000 Libyans are fleeing the country putting enormous pressure on their neighbors. Egypt is not prepared to accept the influx.
Regarding desertions I suspect that it will be difficult for some units (like the “elite” units named after his sons) and/or commanding officers to switch sides after having participated in previous massacres.
I even wondered if this wasn’t one of the goals of some bloody repressions : make sure that the troops are guilty as hell and couldn’t expect any good outcome if they were to lose the battle or envisionned desertion.
I’ve heard that described in the past as a fairly common method of control. Both for the reason you mention, and as a tool for getting your troops psychologically committed to the cause; they have to convince themselves that they are fighting for something important and just, or admit to themselves that they’ve murdered/raped/tortured/whatever for no good reason. And nearly everyone wants to think of themselves as a good guy; not as scum or a dupe.
They can always grab whatever they can loot and leave the country. It’s not like they’re bound to Libya.
The question maybe stupid, but is there a way for a random western individual to support/help the rebels? Financially, for instance, or in other ways?
Hire someone to run guns and ammunition to them.
8 British SAS troops and a junior diplomat have been captured by Libyan rebels. Reuters story.
So many potential outcomes to this that it’s hard to predict what will happen.
Some government troops reportedly switched sides just yesterday in Ras Lanuf.
But I’m not counting on too many more defections, just desertions–simply abandoning Gaddafi and the fight.
Sky News reporting that they’ve been released and are on a Royal Navy ship. Wonder if the “junior diplomat” managed to make his meet, and if so, what was said.
Now I’m even more confused. Same paper, same day:
Gaddafi no match for this bedraggled bunch
Gaddafi onslaught as rebels beaten back