Libya too?!

[clairobscur]

I get some feeling of frustration in the public statements made by Spain, France and the UK (possibly others, but I didn’t hear about them) following the announcement of a cease-fire by Libya (“he’s just afraid, he stays dangerous, he won’t manipulate us, etc…”) as if they really wanted some pretext to be able to strike and were disappointed by the cease-fire.

The French minister of foreign affairs stated that everything was ready for military operations, and apparently the air force has been predeployed in Corsica and Chad. I guess the same is true for the other nations involved. I also understand that electronic warfare has already begun to disrupt Libya’s communications. Some expert stated that the operations will take only some days, at worst some weeks, as if they had already begun.

By the way, I don’t really understand why Germany was so opposed to a military intervention, including a mere no flight zone (FTR, Germany abstained during the vote, but Merkel didn’t hide her general reluctance about the issue). Could a German poster enlighten us about the reasons?

[Capitaine_Zombie]

@tagos

Interesting that the USS Enterprise is hightailing it back to the Red Sea.

It’s the Vulcanian love season.

[Commissar]

@Declan

Dude

The libyans had modern russian anti-aircraft weaponry back in the days of operation el dorado canyon. Twice modern airforces have gone downtown in Bagdad and mostly returned.

When the dogs of war get unleashed, no russian made bottle rocket is going to stop a modern airforce in its tracks.

Declan

You’re playing a guessing game here. We have no way of knowing how truly modern aircrafts will fare against truly modern anti-aircraft systems, as no recent conflict has pitted the two against each other.

Having said that, I doubt that Libya’s anti-air defenses will be all that modern to begin with. Then again, they only need to be marginally effective in order to do their job… Shooting down a couple Western jets may well undermine the imperialists’ willingness to participate in this campaign. Note that it didn’t take all that many deaths in Somalia to send the US’s troops scurrying out of the country with their tails between their legs. Let’s hope that the same will happen here.

@Gozu

You’ve just established your position is morally bankrupt. When you say you do not want a democratic North Africa, you are implying you want innocent people to be tortured, jailed and killed. Do you really want this or are you just playing devil’s advocate?

I’m not sure why you’re equating authoritarianism with “innocent people [being] tortured, jailed and killed.” I note that the US military is doing just fine in the torture and killing of innocents department despite hailing from a purportedly democratic state.

I oppose representative democracies because I find that they are less optimal than other alternatives for their people. This is as true for North Africans as it is for all other peoples.

@Khaki_Campbell

Just out of curiosity, do you also oppose open-borders policies for the circulation of people ?

No; I oppose open-border economic policies of the NAFTA type. I support open borders when it comes to the free movement of people.

[tagos]

@Commissar

You’re playing a guessing game here. We have no way of knowing how truly modern aircrafts will fare against truly modern anti-aircraft systems, as no recent conflict has pitted the two against each other.

Libya’s most modern missile is the SA6. One step up from a bottle rocket and no threat at all.

Should just Britain and France decide to reduce his air-force and air defence system to rubble there’s not one thing Libya can do about it.

Al Jaz is reporting multiple explosions west of Tripoli this afternoon.

[Peremensoe]

@tagos

Interesting that the USS Enterprise is hightailing it back to the Red Sea.

Apparently it’s felt the carrier isn’t even needed to carry out the American portion of the operation. (So much for forces being “stretched thin.”) It looks like it will be Air Force F16s and F22s flying out of Aviano, Italy. The submarine Providence is entering the Med with cruise missiles.

[BrainGlutton]

For any foreign state that wants the rebels to win here – and almost all taking an interest do – the practical, military-diplomatic-political problem is how to:

1. Neutralize Gaddafi’s forces’ military effectiveness;
2. Without neutralizing the rebels’ military effectiveness;
3. And without sending any foreign ground troops into Libya.

Can all that be done with air power?

If so, deployment of air power of course presents no problem, since there are U.S./NATO air bases in Italy as noted above. In a pinch, they probably could commandeer a civilian airport in Malta, closer still.

[BrainGlutton]

So it goes . . .

Libya’s government has announced an immediate ceasefire against pro-democracy protesters, hours after the United Nations Security Council authorised a no-fly zone over the country.

In a statement televised on Friday, Moussa Koussa, the Libyan foreign minister, said his government was interested in protecting all civilians and foreigners.

“We decided on an immediate ceasefire and on an immediate stop to all military operations,” he said, adding “[Libya] takes great interest in protecting civilians”.

Koussa said because his country was a member of the United Nations it was “obliged to accept the UN Security Council’s resolutions”.

But government forces continued to fire on the rebel-held western city of Misurata, witnesses said, where an earlier attack had claimed the lives of at least 25 people.

Abdulbasid Abu Muzairik, a resident in the western coastal town, told Al Jazeera there was shelling from artillery and tanks.

“The Gaddafi forces are at the outskirts of the city but they continue to shell the centre of the city,” he said. “The ceasefire has not taken place; he [Gaddafi] is still continuing up until now to shell and kill the people in the city.”
Read the Libya Live Blog

Anita McNaught, Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Tripoli, said the government’s statement was “very carefully crafted … very deliberate, almost forensic”.

“Clearly the Libyans have been poring over their United Nations charters to decide which bits to disagree with and on the whole they can’t find very much.”

“My hunch is that it is an effort to buy time because the Libyans, I think, have been taken completely by surprise by this sudden resurgence of an [international] consensus on action.”

The ceasefire declaration also contrasted with earlier comments by Muammar Gaddafi, the country’s leader, who warned residents of Benghazi, the eastern rebel stronghold, that his forces would show “no mercy” in an impending assault on the city.

“We will track them [fighters] down, and search for them, alley by alley, road by road,” he said in a radio address on Thursday.

It’s like that scene in Mars Attacks!, where the Martians are rampaging through the city zapping everything that moves, while shouting, “We come in peace! We are your friends!”

[Mops]

@clairobscur

… By the way, I don’t really understand why Germany was so opposed to a military intervention, including a mere no flight zone (FTR, Germany abstained during the vote, but Merkel didn’t hide her general reluctance about the issue). Could a German poster enlighten us about the reasons?

My take from the statements of chancellor and foreign minister is that escalation is considered inevitable, and that a war is harder to leave than to enter into.

[clairobscur]

A summit between the EU and the Arab league (and with the presence of Hillary Clinton) will take place tomorrow in Paris to discuss the situation in Libya, and the next steps to take.

It has also been announced that the carrier Charles de Gaulle is leaving her southern port.

British and French planes would overfly Libya beginning tonight to enforce the no-flight zone. Not confirmed by the military.

[BrainGlutton]

Wolf Blitzer just asked Ambassador Rice if the resolution authorizes arming the rebels. She said it doesn’t authorize it but “by a careful legal reading, doesn’t preclude it.” So there.

[BrainGlutton]

Obama says of the immediate-ceasefire demand, “These terms are not subject to negotiation. If Gaddafi does not comply with the resolution, the international community will impose consequences. The resolution will be enforced through military action.”

Gaddafi would keep ranting and blaming al-Qaeda and American Communists and threatening and provoking the whole world over and over, all while having his own people shot in the streets or worse . . . It’s like he’s been daring everybody to do something. Well, here it is, hope you like it!

[FinnAgain]

@BrainGlutton

American Communists

Leave Commissar out of this.

[BrainGlutton]

@FinnAgain

Leave Commissar out of this.

No, I think he’s Belarusian or something. But I do have a Communist friend. He holds meetings in his RV. I can’t afford his gas, so I’m stuck here messageboarding and it doesn’t even rhyme.

[BrainGlutton]

Here’s another factor, Commissar: If every state in North Africa becomes a liberal democracy or something approaching it, that might give political Islamism opportunities that dictatorships have denied it; but it will also be conducive to trade, travel and communication with the rest of the world (Gaddafi’s Libya has been very isolated, I understand), which will generally tend to modernize the region, industrially and culturally. A good way to fight Islamism. Also a good way to fight imperialism.

[Commissar]

@BrainGlutton

Here’s another factor, Commissar: If every state in North Africa becomes a liberal democracy or something approaching it, that might give political Islamism opportunities that dictatorships have denied it; but it will also be conducive to trade, travel and communication with the rest of the world (Gaddafi’s Libya has been very isolated, I understand), which will generally tend to modernize the region, industrially and culturally. A good way to fight Islamism. Also a good way to fight imperialism.

Once again, I’m not seeing the connections that you are trying to draw here. I fail to see how and why “liberal democracies” magically result in the flourishing of “trade, travel and communication.” Seriously, what is the connection that you treat as being self-evident? China has advanced tremendously in all three categories - all under authoritarian leadership. Most of Africa is dominated by liberal democracies - and most fail miserably in all three categories. Reality doesn’t prove what you want it to prove, BrainGlutton.

Also, why are you even assuming that the rebels want to see a liberal democracy? All we know about them is that they’re a herd of hooligans with guns. For all you know, they would declare the Fourth Reich immediately upon seizing power. The fact that they’re fighting a person whom you dislike does not mean that their political ideologies are necessarily aligned with your own.

Finally, I’m not troubled by political Islam, so that’s a moot point. I will, however, point out that the mostly overtly Islamic states of today include Saudi Arabia and Iran, which tends to indicate that despotic regimes and democracies are equally receptive to this school of thought.

[tomndebb]

@Commissar

I will, however, point out that the mostly overtly Islamic states of today include Saudi Arabia and Iran, which tends to indicate that despotic regimes and democracies are equally receptive to this school of thought.

Bwa-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha

I presume you are calling Saudi Arabia a democracy, since even you cannot be sufficiently naive as to believe the Ruling Council in Iran permits anything other than “show” elections in that country.

[Siam_Sam]

@Agnostic_Pagan

As far as China, I agree some big carrots were offered more than big sticks. Though even they would rather see the oil markets stabilize sooner than later, and Libya is still a major producer.

I would have to hunt hard for the cite, but I know I read recently that Libya’s only the 12th-largest oil producer. The report said while the quantity may not be much relatively speaking, it’s the quality that counts. Apparently Libya produces some really high-grade stuff.

[E-Sabbath]

Gadaffi has used the cover of the cease-fire to assault Benghazi, of course. Things are currently fluid.

[Commissar]

I have a few questions for the use-of-force cheerleaders out here, if I may.

First, I wonder what your long-term plan for Libya is? As things stand now, most of the nation is controlled by Gaddafi forces, except for some isolated rebel outposts. If this status quo is maintained, there will be no unification. How do you see this working out in the long term? Who will finance and support the rebel city-states? Where will they get their food? Power? Drinking water? Do you expect Gaddafi to provide these services to areas that refuse to remit tax revenues? The only people to benefit from all this will be the rebels, even as the civilian population suffers.

Moreover, I wonder whether you would use this approach whenever an authoritarian administration kills its people? Or does this only apply to anti-Western leaders? There is a recent article on BBC pointing out the fact that the US doesn’t appear to care about civilian massacres by pro-US governments in Yemen and Bahrain: Why is US backing force in Libya but not Bahrain, Yemen? - BBC News Do the rest of you condone such blatant hypocrisy?

Finally, I wonder how much human suffering you are willing to accept? Many of you speak of a no-fly zone in coldly clinical terms, apparently assuming that the Western nations can pull this off with their eyes closed. I would like to point out that the US is currently using air force in Afghanistan and Pakistan - with the result that thousands of innocent civilians have been killed by US bombs. Most recently, US air power led to the deaths of 40 civilians in Pakistan: Pakistan: Calls for revenge after US drones kill 40 - BBC News Will you accept the slaughter of civilians by your own forces? How many deaths are acceptable? 100? 1,000? 100,000?

[WreckingCrew]

@Commissar

I have a few questions for the use-of-force cheerleaders out here, if I may.

First, I wonder what your long-term plan for Libya is? As things stand now, most of the nation is controlled by Gaddafi forces, except for some isolated rebel outposts. If this status quo is maintained, there will be no unification. How do you see this working out in the long term?

Out the door soon, so not enough time to answer all of your questions, except to say that I doubt that this ends with Gaddafi still being in power of a portion of Libya now that the other nations are involved. I don’t see the U.S. and Europeans letting him stay in power, or possibly alive. He has not been the most popular fella among the western nations, and unlike previous actions against him by the US and France, this time there is a viable revolt for them to back to the end. Also, with the changes taking place across the region, and the at least tacit approval of the other MENA states, it seems that Col. Mo does not have much support from other nations who might take up his cause.

I realize that all of the above falls under your evil Imperialist complaint, but that is how I see it going. I will try to attend to post-war nation building and casualty rates when I return.