I’m having a hard time visualizing this one. So, Wicked Puppet-Master Gaddafi and his Council of Evil Henchmen decide to delude the rest of the world into erroneously thinking that the White Knights of the West have killed innocent civilians. They stage a well-publicized, taped funeral… Only to be foiled because they forget to account for a common Arab ritual? “Shit! I totally forgot that we Arabs remove the bodies from the coffins during burial! And here I thought that my empty coffins idea was the best thing since sliced Zionists!”
Also, what is it with you and several other Western posters attempting to disregard civilian casualties? I mean, come on. You’re bombing densely-populated urban areas from sea and air. Innocent people have died, are dying, and will continue to die. Pretending that this is not so is erroneous. If you are going to support this act of aggression against a sovereign people, you are going to have to work harder to wash the blood of innocents from your hands. The head-in-the-sand routine is troubling, to say the least.
I don’t think it will be that easy for arms dealers to funnel in weapons in the current embargo and air survey conditions. At least not anything larger than a mortar (light weapons can certainly enter the country at some point of the border in whatever ordinary looking vehicle).
Also, note that the main borders are with hostile countries (Tunisia and Egypt, obviously, the latter actually giving weapons to the insurgents, and Chad which is close to being a French protectorate and definitely not a friend of Kadhafi anyway). There are small borders with Sudan and Niger, where the situation is obviously different, but I doubt they are logistically the best option to transport weapons.
Besides, ammunitions depots have been targeted. Notably by Kadhafi’s own airforce. Finally, you have to bring them to the troops doing the fighting. Destroying the supply chain is one of the objectives of the coalition.
I do not doubt that they’ll have enough light arms and amnos for those, but what about tanks and artillery? For how long will they be able to use them without running out of shells in he town where currently most of the fighting is going on, for instance? (I understand that tanks can operate with ordinary fuel if needed, so this shouldn’t be a problem).
No, it is Islamic funerals, not Arab funerals, as of course the majority of Muslims are not Arabs, and a big number of Arabs are not Muslims. It is not even traditional to use coffins. In Islam one is, if one follows Sunna, buried in a white shroud only.
I do not believe there is any way to know when he runs out as smuggling via the Sahel through the Sahara of ammunitions is very possibly
In fact in Tchad they have become much friendlier to Qaddafi than in the past, but also via the very corrupt means of Nigeria through Niger is possible as well, as Qaddafi has bought many friends in the Sahel. Heavy armaments are not possible I think, but I think in extremis Qaddafi can move AK and RPG in volume from the Sahel.
I think it is the tanks that will become useless soonest. The cannons and the ammunition I think can be resupplied by ordinary trucks, and those disguised as civilians, so the Coalition will fear to bomb.
Your spelling of Tchad made me think that you’re more familiar with French than English and looking at your profile showed that you’ve been around for a long while but very rarely posted, making it even more intriguing.
A quick glance at your previous posts seemed to show an interest or knowledge of Islam, that you live in an unnamed developing country and that word order doesn’t matter in your native language.
Would you mind telling us where you live, out of curiosity?
Something shocking : a woman entered the hotel were journalists are lodged. She screamed that she had been raped by 15 soldiers, detained for two days and tortured. The security detail intervened, confiscated some cameras while removing the still screaming woman from the hotel. An official statement was made according to
which she was drunk. I’m searching for a video of the incident.
ETA :here’s one . Not the same I saw on French TV, that included her head being covered in a black sheet and dragged outside into a vehicle, but not her talking with the journalists.
Also : according to the insurgents Brega fell too.
Misrata is currently under heavy Gadaffi assault, to prevent the rebels from breaking through to Sirte. Red Cross tents being shelled.
He’s throwing everything he has at Misrata. This might be critical.
On the matter of Iman al-Obeidy, who was the woman hustled away, I’d like to commend Charles Clover of The Financial Times, who attempted to rescue her. He was then stuffed in a van and tossed out of the country.
Apparently. Starting to look like they might actually win this. If they can retake Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad, they’re poised to move on Sirt. That would be a tough battle – it’s Gaddafi’s hometown and power base. But if they can take it, they can relieve Misurata and the war is all but won.
Put it this way: Thus far, as you will see here, the civil war has bypassed the Fezzan or southwest of the country, which is firmly Gaddafi-controlled. I predict that if Tripoli falls, Sabha will simply surrender. It will not be like a comparable situation in the context of the Russian Civil War or the Spanish Civil War or the Chinese Civil War. There will be no Green holdouts still hoping to re-take the country for the cause. Whatever Gaddafi’s vision is, I don’t believe much of anyone else in Libya believes in it like he does.
They would have to bypass most of northern Libya, then. Looking at a map of Libya it doesn’t seem to make sense. How could have they any secure supply line, even assuming that Kadhafi forces don’t bother to react to such a move?
Well, it’s a combination of Gadaffi’s forces being pinned and the potential need to reinforce Misrata in a hurry. Bypassing Sirte isn’t an optimal solution, but there are roads in the area. This is not true for most cities east of it. I don’t think you could bypass Adjabiya, for example, with any real hope of success.
I disagree on the basis that your theory assumes far too much to be plausible. You really expect me to believe that, despite the fact that much of Libya is actively fighting on the Colonel’s side, not a single individual actually believes that this is the “right” thing to do? Not a single man, woman, or child wants to see Gaddafi in power for the nation’s sake? How can you possibly justify such a wild position?
Perhaps more importantly, why do you feel it necessary to pretend that there is no valid ideology on the other side? I disagree with the rebels, for example, but I won’t insult everyone’s intelligence by claiming that they’re all paid-off Western agents or some such nonsense. There is no need to dehumanize our opponents - at least none that I can see. The world is not that black and white, nor would I really want it to be.
It’s difficult to predict future scenarios, but I believe that Somalia may be a more apt analogy than Russia, Spain, or China. If the central government crumbles, this will create a power vacuum in a weak state with no unified alternative political party. More likely than not, the rebels would turn their guns on each other and fight a brutal and drawn-out civil war for control of what would by then be a failed state. At that point, the existence or absence of “Green holdouts” would be absolutely irrelevant, as there would be more than enough bloodshed to go around regardless.
