Rebels retake Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad.
It’s going to be a bloody week.
And see what he’s doing after just a week on the job: Rebels say Qatar ready to market east Libyan oil
Here’s something I just looked up: Libya has roughly the same area as Alaska (1.7 million square kilometers) and roughly the same population as Indiana (6.4 million).
Egypt, by contrast, with an area of 1m sq/km (less than Alaska, more than Texas), has a population of 79 million, approximately those of California, Texas, and New York combined.
So, it’s comparatively easier for any prominent individual to get meaningfully involved in Libyan national politics, once there is such a thing. And now there is, ask Dr. Tarhouni.
I wouldn’t give up hope just yet.
“They seized the eastern coastal towns of Ras Lanuf, Brega, Uqayla and Bin Jawad after pro-Gaddafi forces withdrew, under pressure from allied air strikes.”
That’s not very impressive, is it? Seizing a town abandoned by your enemy hardly qualifies as a brilliant military victory. The rebels tend to do less well when the enemy actually, you know, shoots back:
"Misrata is the only significant rebel-held city left in the west, and has been under heavy bombardment for days.
On Sunday, a resident of the city told Reuters the city and port area were under attack again. “We don’t know whether it’s artillery or mortars,” he said.
Reports from Misrata say food, water and medical supplies are running low."
I don’t see this herd of ignorant misfits being able to take any strategic city in the face of any real opposition.
Um, dude, the point is that the opposition IS disappearing rapidly.
I know how much it chaps you to see a democratic revolt succeed, but you’ll just have to deal with it.
Nevertheless, I think the government is preparing to make a stand in Sirt. That’s why they pulled back all their heavy armor from Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad. So, it’s going to be a bloody battle for Sirt.
Let the Warthogs find some of those tanks first, guys.
As the BBC article indicates, there is a general level of confusion about what is going on, but it hardly appears to be a retreat on all fronts. For example, the government forces are still very much engaged in street fighting in Misrata, may they have victory in battle.
Huh? What do you mean by “democratic revolt?” What credentials must an armed hooligan possess in order to be considered a “democratic” rebel under your theory? From my perspective, this is an insurrection by a crazed herd of criminal lowlifes rather than some bold fight for political freedom.
I guess you skipped the Seattle Times report.
The one about a Libyan traitor with delusions of grandeur? What point do you imagine that article proves?
Look, other than the fact that they are in revolt, what reason do you see to think the rebel troops or their officers or their ad-hoc political leaders or their in-country civilian supporters are “criminal lowlifes” or “ignorant misfits” or any of that?
That “traitor” with “delusions of grandeur” has become part of the rebel government. He was invited after organizing with the opposition for many years.
But the only reason that I remarked on that article was to show what BS was the affirmation that “this is an insurrection by a crazed herd of criminal lowlifes rather than some bold fight for political freedom.”
Who knows how Egypt and Libya will wind up? They do not have a history for democracy nor do they have democratic institutions in place. It is nice to think they will make a constitution guaranteeing rights of the people. But I would be surprised if it happens.
Once the battle is over, someone will be in charge of a victorious army. Will they politely cede rule to civilians? Who is qualified to rule in a democratic manner? For over 40 years one man rule has not developed an educated and experienced public service system. Can they survive through the mistakes and growing pains the new government will cause?
That was Cornwallis, wasn’t it?
No, Cornwallis said, “I’ll #%?@^ those &>/?!% of #&@#$ by the ?>”}{(&*+ and %T%^@@#$$ their **&I#%& with a %#% heated in %#%#^%#%!!!" (Cambridge man, you understand.) It’s easy to get them confused.
Here, see the highways around Sirte? It’s bypassable. But the reports are that Sirte is rising up from within.
While it’s bypassable, bypassing a potential enemy staging point with a good line at your supply train is a risky move. But perhaps justified if the rebel forces can get to Quadaffi and kill him in time to avoid further bloodshed.
It is risky, and they’re not doing it. But it was a possibility. Part of what might have happened was, basically, Sirte was the last chance for Gadaffi to stop the rebels from linking up. So if they wanted to stop them at Sirte, they’d have to mass units there. But since the roads go around Sirte, they’d have to meet them far out in front of the city… and get airstruck.
I was kind of wondering if that’d happen. Looks like not.
Since it appears that all these cities (and most of the population) is within a short distance from the Mediterranean coast, could they just load a few thousand rebel fighters on ships, and sail into Tripoli harbor? It’s more complicated than that, but still a possibility, right?
That would bypass Sirte and any other fortified spots or ambushes on the roads. And striking at the heart of Gadaffi’s power in the capitol would certainly change the script. He would have to fight there, and would probably recall troops from Sirte & elsewhere to defend the capitol (thus making it easier for the remaining rebels to bypass or capture Sirte, relieve Misrata, and attack the capitol from another direction.
He could abandon the capitol and gather his forces elsewhere, but in public opinion, once you are forced out of the capitol, it’s pretty much over. World opinion would decide that a rebel victory was inevitable. More importantly, the people of Libya would decide the same – his support would start to evaporate, as soldiers disappear back into the population and military unit commanders start to negotiate deals with the rebels.
Even an unsuccessful attack on the capitol still has much the same effect. It shows Gaddaffi as on the defensive, trying to fight off rebel attacks on the capitol. So he appears weaker, and likely to fall eventually.
Bypassing Sirte appears to add about 100 km to the route to Misrata, and takes the rebels through places that do not appear to have towns with sufficient food and fuel supplies to forage. And, as mentioned above, leaves what supply lines they do have subject to being broken.