I agree with the rest of the posters saying that it’s going to be very difficult to get anything to happen; propane tanks are pretty robust for a reason. But, since I work in safety basis, let’s assume we’re going to have an explosion. It’s most likely going to start with a BLEVE, as danceswithcats points out. For the purposes of this calculation, let’s assume that all BLEVEs happen simultaneously, that the BLEVEs do not impart any additional energy into the explosion, and the lightning lasts long enough to detonate the mixture.
The heat of combustion is about 50* MJ/kg for propane, compared to 4.652 MJ/kg for TNT. This means that, with perfect efficiency, propane would have an equivalence of 10.75. However, there is also an efficiency correction, which might be as low as .04 or as high as .22 (I cheated on this a bit. My explosive textbooks are at home, and the highest and lowest efficiency numbers I found with a cursory search and worked backwards. Just trying to develop a familiarity with the process).
This gives us an equivalent between .46 and 10.75. As you can see, the efficiency is a huge factor. Assuming 12 full propane tanks weighing 25 pounds, this gives us about 300 pounds of propane, or between 150 and 3,000 pounds (68kg and 1360kg, respectively) equivalent.
Using the formula:
scaled distance = actual distance / ((mass TNT)^1/3), we find the scaled distances for the structure 1 meter away from the BLEVEs to be .244 for the smaller yield, and .090 for the larger yield (remember, being closer will give a larger pressure. These numbers are expressed in units of m*kg^1/3).
Referring to the chart found on this page, we can see that these cases would give us values of between 100 and 300 bar. Keep in mind that those numbers are ridiculously high because we’re assuming all tanks fail simultaneously and pressure drops of with respect to the cubed distance.
For a more realistic scenario, let’s assume only one tank reaches BLEVE state, and the BLEVE does not impart any additional energy into the resulting explosion. For a 30 pound (13.6 kg) propane explosion with a realistic yield of four percent, this gives us a TNT equivalence of 7 kilograms, for an equivalent standoff distance of 1/2. The still high 10 bar pressure resulting from this would easily blow through the brick wall, and possibly damage the other tanks (but that’s beyond the scope of this problem ;)). At this size explosion, we’d have a 50/50 possibility of living (from overpressure alone, assuming no shrapnel) at 10 meters, and a nearly 100% chance of living at 20 meters.
Those equations are all fine and dandy, but I still think QED’s initial response is the correct one, as others have pointed out. I was just going through the thought exercise of “What If?”.
[QUOTE=danceswithcats]
The full ones can be made to rupture, but it’s properly referred to as a BLEVE. To cause that, you must apply sufficient heat to the vessel that the outer shell is weakened, and overpressure from boiling contents causes a failure of the vessel, together with release of the contents, with accompanying fire, should the contents be combustible or flammable.
[/QUOTE]
This sentence is a bit ambiguous, but I just wanted to clarify that a BLEVE (boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion) can happen when the internal fluid is not combustable; I believe danceswithcats was referring to the accompanying fire.