Odds are favorable for Hilary winning the election, but if a third party ran that could change drastically. Does anyone know what the likelihood of third party running in election could be? I’ve read its not likely Micheal Bloomberg would run as a third party but is there anyone else who might run.
It’s 100% certain that Gary Johnson is running as a third party candidate (Libertarian). It does’t change the odds one bit.
It would have to be someone who could actually win states (electoral votes). The only ways I see that happening are if either the GOP runs someone against Trump or they screw Trump out of the nomination and he decides to run on a third-party ticket.
Well, I guess Sanders could do it, too, but he’d eviscerate any future chance at a run.
There was also talk of a conservative third party attempt that has fizzled.
The logistic are daunting.
But a “real Republican” third-party ticket–unlike the perennially-contemplated Bloomberg independent bid–would not have to win 270 EV. Just enough to deny Trump and Clinton. Oh, and they need the support of 26 House delegations. And they have to avoid getting on the ballot in swing states they might not win.
The rules for getting on the ballot in all the states are daunting. Texas, for example, closes on May 9. Many states require a large number of signatures from people who have not voted in either primary. The rules are arcane and different in each state. So a third party is improbable and getting more so daily.
Its strange that the rules would allow them to avoid unfavorable swing states, but even if they allow that, I think on the republican side there would still too many angry Trump voters who would vote for trump, and just split the vote for republicans and help Hillary win.
So, there is no Ralph Nadar type person that might jump in and split the democrat vote and cause Hillary to lose?
The Constitution Party already has a ballot line in a bunch of states. Can the Provisional Republican Party buy them out?
Bloomberg said he wouldn’t run, both because he knows he can’t win, and because he knows he would just be giving backhanded support to the Republican candidate.
A piece today in Politico makes it look rather unlikely. Too many different rules in too many states - with too many signatures required.
In order for a Republican “third party” to deny any votes to Clinton or Trump, they’d have to win at least some states. How many states are there where the Republicans could win a plurality even competing against Trump and Clinton at the same time? The only ones where that would even be possible are the states Cruz won, and even there, I doubt it.