The Senate will be 52-48 with gop control. Assuming all 48 Democrats vote to uphold the filibuster along with Graham that means two more Republicans are needed to avoid changing the rules by a majority vote.
I’m assuming that the filibuster will stand. For one, it lets the Republican blame the Democrats when Trump fails to uphold his promises (golly we Republicans wanted to do xyz, but the Democrats filibustered. The Democrats pulled that same line against Republicans for the last eight years to placate progressives). For another I’m sure some of them are aware that someone like Trump needs checks on his power. There were something like 16 gop senators who didn’t support Trump in the election. I’m sure a few realize Trump needs checks and balances.
So who are two more gop senators who will likely uphold the filibuster?
These 16 GOP senators can simply vote against any Trump legislation they don’t like–while getting rid of the filibuster allows the Senate to pass Trump legislation these 16 GOP Senators do like.
The filibuster rules should change, the electoral college and two term limit for presidents should also be eliminated, but it’s a dumb idea to do it as a reaction to some recent event. Let them debate and decide what to do and implement any changes at some point in the future. And even at that they’ll probably screw things up.
Democracy works best when the majority party has both the memory of having been in the minority and the certain knowledge that they will be again before too many more turns of the wheel. Graham has been around long enough to know this.
But on the other hand, there was that H.L. Menken quote: “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”
I would prefer an up or down vote on nominees of the President. For legislation I’m not so sure - I’d generally prefer gridlock so filibusters help that happen.
For lifetime appointees, like SCJ, I’d like the minority to be able to filibuster. That’s not partisanship talking; I’d prefer that even if Democratic president/Senate.
Do you think any of those 10-12 Democrats are going to vote to throw away the ongoing bargaining power that the filibuster offers them? How does that help them win re-election? What’s the campaign slogan, “Vote for me, I voted that one time to let the Republicans decide everything like I thought you wanted?”
They can vote to throw out the filibuster now, and be toothless for at least two years, or keep it, and bargain to break filibusters in the future in return for political favor.