Is there an easy way to figure out the longest stretch of time that has the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones had approximately equivalent values?
For Example, the S&P closed at approximately 1313 yesterday. The first time it hit that value was between 1 and 9 Apr 1999. That makes a bit more than 13 years. I am sure there are spans that are longer than that.
Anyone know of where to find this?
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/12/100_year_bull_b.html
I think this is what you are looking for. Only goes back to 1900 though.
My first guess, when I saw your OP was 1960-1980’s and it looks like that is right. 1964-1982 looks pretty flat on the chart.
One caveat many seem to forget about is that these charts are not inflation adjusted. The ‘progress’ between 1900 and 2000 is more muted when you take this into account.
BTW, one of the articles points is that we are in for 17-22 years of a flat market. However, that flatness began early in 2000…so we are already 12 years into that.
I am sure I am wandering off the topic of my own thread here a bit, but I am wondering if there are real and legitimate reasons for those years of gains.
From 46-65 the US was the big boy on the block while the rest of the world was still developing or busy rising from the ashes of WWII. In terms of manufacturing we were number one.
From 1981-2000 there were enormous advancements in computer technology and communications that allowed for tremendous strides in globalization and efficiency. Yea, there have been advancements since 2000, but not as stark. The office from 1981-2000 looks and operates very differently. The office from 2000-2012 looks very much the same.
So in conclusion, maybe the markets are just cyclical in nature and will start going up in few years, but maybe it needs a darn good reason to do so.
Eye balling it from this chart, it looks like the longest time is between the time of it inception (May26 1896) with a value of 40.94 and some time on July 8 1932 when it hit its low of 40.56 but rebounded to 41.22. So 36 years and 43 days.
as for the S&P 500 the longest stretch is eyeballed between late 1968 (close 108.37), and late 1982. So 14 years. Given that I remember hearing some years ago from someone promoting stock ownership that the S&P 500 “Has never had a 15 year period in which it has lost money”, I think that this is probably about right.
Only if you don’t adjust for inflation. There was some…significant…inflation in the 70s 
I agree with this which is why I wouldn’t put much weight on eyeballing the 17-22 years of flat followed by a bull market observation.
That being said, there probably is a little to it. You tend to have a major bull market followed by a consolidation. This major ‘flat period’ is usually quite tramatic with sharp drops and shocks which, after they have happened tend to make people leery/cynical of the stock market. It then takes some time for the market to forget these shocks and prep for another upturn. Once the upturn happens for a length of time, it tends to push itself up more than it ‘should’.
However, I don’t think these upturns are guaranteed. There still need to be a ‘reason’.
In short, Bull markets and Bear markets last too long for ‘psychological’ reasons.
