I’m trying to find % success rates for recovery in heroin addicts, specifically, after so-and-so many attempts, the % chance of remaining sober for X amount of time is blah%. Or, after so many years of using, the chances of rehab working increases/decreases by whatever percent.
The back story: I have a friend whose estranged wife just reached 20 years of addiction, with about 40 - 50 stints in rehab or methadone or another type of treatment. (13 in one year.) She’s still using. The longest period of not using she’s had is just under one year, and that was after her first rehab. Her average is about two weeks clean. I have no idea how she’s managed to stay alive.
While discussing this with another friend the other day, she told me that statistically, she has no chance of ever recovering for any appreciaple length of time. She said that there’s about a 20% chance of a program working, no matter what it is, from methadone to cold turkey, so after 5 attempts, you’ve used up your chances. I’d think if the 20% rate of success is true, then it wouldn’t matter how many times you’ve been, you’re still looking at about a 20% chance of it working. (This time.) So, since obviously neither of us “gets” the math, I figured I’d turn to the wisest bunch of people I know of, and ask for real numbers. Or anectdotes, or anything. I’m just eternally curious about how this works. I can envision it getting easier to stay clean after repeated attempts, but I can also see how after a bunch of attempts it just isn’t going to work. And she’s been through everything, and I mean every single program. Inpatient, outpatient, aversion Rx, fancy, expensive programs to the free program for the homeless. So, I think she’s probably hopeless, myself, but it’s really (A) not my business and (B) impossible to accurately predict. I think I just want something to wrap my head around. I’m also curious to other numbers surrounding it, pretty much anything. All the numbers I’m finding are the number of people per 100,000 who use per state, and individual facilities success rate after 2 months. (Which seems to be 75% on average.)
Bonus question - if anyone would care to share stories with me, good, bad, or indifferent, about their personal experience dealing with another person’s addiction to herion, I would really like to hear about them. I think they may help my friend understand that he’s not alone in struggling with watching her kill herself without any chance of him actually being able to help her. He’s really messed up, doesn’t go to Narc or Al-anon because he’s just too embarrassed and practically ruined by the whole thing. (Yes, I know I’m just an extension of co-dependency if I’m trying to help him and he’s trying to help her, etc. I don’t let it affect my life, honestly. My husband and I both care about him a lot and hope to help him deal with this part of his life.)
Thanks in advance! I have to go to work, so I can’t check back in until late tonight, but I’m really looking forward to anything you all could tell me.