Looks like AI is going to shift us all back to manual labor, like how it was for most of human history

We have that now. Companies are always looking for the best and brightest people to work at their company, but when these bright people actually start the new job they are bored and move on after a short time.

I think the technological developments in the 21st century have shown that is not the case. We need people to create AI, service AI, and do research and development. Heck, my job is to service technology that was predicted by some people to put me on the unemployment line. Sure, jobs are lost, but jobs are also created.

Maybe. Or maybe he chose that as an example of a task his audience would recognize as total mindless drudgery and left it that way in his future as the quintessential cautionary tale / example.

“Futurama” devoted an entire episode to the concept that the use of sexbots had to be discouraged if human males were ever going to sire children again: I Dated a Robot - Wikipedia

Ironically, i just saw a Whitney Cummings standup comedy special where, at the end and for laughs, she introduced a sex bot designed to look just like her, wardrobe and all. It gave me the freaking creeps. I’d rather soak in a hot, sudsy bath, have a couple of glasses of wine, and have at it than couple with something like that! :flushed:

Now. In 30 years when the idea has been commonplace for awhile I bet a lot of people will think contrarily.

IMO for a lot of men women and dating are simply a PITA to be endured until there’s sex. Then they’re to be endured again until there’s sex again. If they want a friend, they get a dog or hang with their guy pals who they have some small hope of understanding & relating to.

Once they can buy or rent an electronic chatbot-equipped ho that’s a 19yo-lookalike who doesn’t look or act like she does crack, and is always, and I do mean always, in the mood for sex his way, there’s no way they’re messing with real women.

Women will have a different set of desires & preferences when it comes to electronic chatbot anatomically complete e-dudes. But those will sell well too.

I predict quite a market for sperm sales and artificial insemination will spring up. With zero feedback to the male sellers of where their output ends up. By design; they wouldn’t have it any other way.

Does even it have to chat? :slight_smile:

But really, most older guys (and many younger ones) I know are past the sex aspect (to a point) and just want companionship with a woman. Someone to go out to dinner with and take vacations and be appreciated. As one friend put, its easier for me to get sex than a decent massage and a kind word from my wife. That’s going to be a taller order than just a sexbot.

I don’t know, any sex bot realistic enough to be popular will almost have to be physically capable of something like massage.

I mean, if I can’t trust it to rub my back, there’s no way it’s getting anywhere near my genitalia.

They currently can’t (at least affordably) give dolls/ bots a realistic skin texture. Give it time.

Robotics will not advance like AI. The real limit to robotics is battery power and building inexpensive yet complex linkages and motors and such. The Boston Dynamics ‘Spot’ robot, for example, has a 90 minute battery life if it’s not doing something strenuous. That’s with a 564 Wh battery. Atlas requires a 3.7 kWh battery for one hour of runtime, and the battery alone weighs somewhere between 70 and 130 lbs, depending on formulation and casing. Those batteries also cost between $1,000 and $2,000

We don’t have substantially better batteries coming for these things. Incremental improvements, sure. But nothing revolutionary. Not any time soon.

So we aren’t going to see robots doing outside work off-tether for a long time. They won’t be hunting us, either. So any job that requires a person to be mobile and do manual work of any sort is probably safe. We aren’t going to have robot road crews any time soon.

Likewise, domain knowledge and tacit knowledge are valuable. AIs have book smarts, but they don’t know about all the little things that make a difference in any real-world environment. So if you are a white collar worker with specialized knowledge due to experience, you are probably safe. AI will probably skew the job market towards industry experience and away from school credentials to some degree.

The real bloodbath will be with all those people who got generic liberal arts degrees then took white collar jobs doing standard work that doesn’t require specialized knowledge. Of you are a spreadsheet jockey or a purchasing person or a generic ‘manager’ with an MBA but no actual industry skills or knowledge, you should already be looking to upgrade your skills. AI is coming for your job.

The flipside of this is that the early adopters who bring AI into their work are going to badly out-compete those who don’t, and position themselves for raises and promotions. People who drag their feet on AI are going to miss out, because by the time they too get up to speed everyone else will and there will no longer be a special advantage. You’ll have to learn to use AI just to keep up.

In general though, there is no reason why AI should cause net job losses. If AI makes us wildly productive, that will just free up money and human capital for pther things.

For example, AI may bring in a golden era for small business, and make starting and running a business accessible to everyone. You might be able to run a hundred million dollar business with a couple of people and a lot of cheap AI help. As AI frees people from low value work, it makes them available to find higher value work. And humans are valuable.

The path to the solution relies in better moving parts, not better batteries. We already know some protein-based machines are capable of working all day burning just a few hundred kcals of energy. The path to better robots is making similar machines less prone to rot.

Hey, so long as the sex-bot entices me in a seductive voice, “she” could be made from tin cans connected with wires into the approximate form of a woman and I’ll be down with that. :heart_eyes_cat:

I am reminded of this passage:

“I’d say six years. You can spend your voyage time from here cramming for entrance qualifications. Schools don’t bother about academic credits any more; they’re only interested in how much you know. You take four years’ regular college, and a year postgrading, and you’ll have all the formal education you’ll need.”
“But, Bish, I can get that here, at the Library,” I said. “We have every book on film that’s been published since the Year Zero.”
“Yes. And you’d die of old age before you got a quarter through the first film bank, and you still wouldn’t have an education. Do you know which books to study, and which ones not to bother with? Or which ones to read first, so that what you read in the others will be comprehensible to you? That’s what they’ll give you on Terra. The tools, which you don’t have now, for educating yourself.”
–H. Beam Piper, Four-Day Planet (1961)

AI pornography raises alot of interesting and disturbing possibilities, but there’s always going to be some sort of market for the real thing. Inperson sex work will be dominated by real for a very long time

Not exactly. Mustafa Mond directly admits that the World State avoids automation for social reasons. Most manual labor still exists not for technical or economic reasons but so that each caste can feel superior to the one below (except for the subhuman Epsilons who are too dumb to care.)

I’d missed that. Thanks for the correction.

If both sides of the real human transaction were destigmatized AND sex with bots was equally destigmatized I would totally buy that human sex workers would totally dominate. Net of disease concerns. And recognizing that full legalization is a necessary precondition to true destigmatization.

Which of those three roles: buyer, seller, or bot-f***er are destigmatized most or first will have a lot to do with how this settles out. My money is on Door #3, at least in the Baptist-dominated USA.

I’d go with whichever gave the most bang for the buck.

That was part of my logic. There will always be desperate people willing to do that job for cheap. Tech will be expensive at least at first.

Where the crossover will come is that ratty looking prostitutes work cheap and living 10s a la Pretty Woman are expensive. When Joe Sixpack can rent a raggedy live one or a hot bot for the same money, the bots will pretty quickly drive the live bottom of the market to extinction.

I see what you did there.