Lord of the Rings Mafia

[GuiriEnEspana]

Peeker, your defense is that a scum team with you on it wouldn’t have made such a mess of Natlaw’s claim, right? Makes sense. Didn’t you make a similar argument about Hoopy in relation to Suburban’s botched claim?

@ Chronos, if Natlaw didn’t learn the name of sleeping players, how do you think they were supposed to “find” Astral? We’ve seen a powerless godfather and a vanilla so unless there’s an investigator in addition to the suspected roleblocker, I’ve almost no ideas how they could have found him without some additional power - such as learning the name of sleeping players. Is it possible that any action targeted at Astral would have been enough for them to find him? That would still leave just the suspected roleblocker and Natlaw as the potential finders.

With that in mind, I’d like to review Natlaw’s claim and possible motivations. Astral was not a hobbit and so if he’d been lynched, Natlaw was sure to follow the next Day. Drain, who was voting Astral, was hesitant to unvote so I can only guess she didn’t realize what Natlaw was trying to do. My guess is that he “found” Astral Night 2, hadn’t been able to tell the other scum and didn’t yet know what info/powers Astral could bring to the team so ran the risk with a small hope of not being counterclaimed (no-one counterclaimed Suburban Day 1). There was probably other scum among the Astral voters but, as far as I can remember, only OaOW was around to unvote (leaving Hoopy and Inner).

Drain was the only known scum to attempt to handshake and she failed (indicating a non-VT cover role). Of the remaining unknowns, only Normal/Inner Stickler and Doctor Who kept out of the handshakes. Normal was one of the first to discredit the handshake attempt as scum were likely to have cover roles.

And that brings me to the currently lurking Inner Stickler who voted Astral piggy-backing Drain’s case and Astral’s defense of that case. On Day 1 he was among the last to place a vote and was 11th (or so) on Suburban, just after Drain. On Day 2 he avoided the Chipa bandwagon completely. On Days 4 and 5 he was pretty early to vote Natlaw and Astral, who I believe are probably his scum buddies so possibly an attempt at gaining Town cred (he certainly fooled Chronos’s program). His total contribution to the game has been 39 posts of which 17 are fluff, 8 are fluffy, 5 are votes and the rest are mainly comments, there’s no attempt to hunt scum, no poking, questioning, cases, analysis, etc…

He’s also been completely absent (but green) for 8 days, probably just watching us and keeping out of our way. If the game isn’t over when Peeker flips, I’d suggest looking at Inner.

Vote Inner Stickler

I’d like to see participation, possibly a claim, and some thoughts and comments on recent events. Is that asking too much?

On preview, while composing this post I saw Drain’s “reason for edit” in the other game. WIFOM.

[Chronos]

@ Chronos, if Natlaw didn’t learn the name of sleeping players, how do you think they were supposed to “find” Astral? We’ve seen a powerless godfather and a vanilla so unless there’s an investigator in addition to the suspected roleblocker, I’ve almost no ideas how they could have found him without some additional power - such as learning the name of sleeping players. Is it possible that any action targeted at Astral would have been enough for them to find him? That would still leave just the suspected roleblocker and Natlaw as the potential finders.

There was a similar role in Screamers, when I was a Scum: If the our investigator had targeted Normal Phase, she would have been sent the login information for the Scum board, completely independently of what the investigator learned. The rest of the Scum team would presumably have found out about her at least once she started posting on our board, and nobody but the investigator was able to trigger her recruitment. If (as actually happened) all the other Scum were killed, she was given the power to make the nightly Scum kill on her own. Oh, and even before that, she was also able to send us a message each Night with a suggestion of whom we should kill, which did give us some clues as to who she was.

On Days 4 and 5 he [Stickler] was pretty early to vote Natlaw and Astral, who I believe are probably his scum buddies so possibly an attempt at gaining Town cred (he certainly fooled Chronos’s program).

Well, we’ll wait until after he’s revealed to say whether he actually fooled my program or not, but if he did, my hat’s off to him. Credit also goes to Drain Bead, who almost managed to fool it. And I should emphasize that my program has never been intended to be used as a substitute for other Scum-hunting methods: If I’m still alive toMorrow, and the game isn’t over, then I’ll have to consider the case on Stickler (and on anyone else, of course).

[peekercpa]

@GuiriEnEspana

Peeker, your defense is that a scum team with you on it wouldn’t have made such a mess of Natlaw’s claim, right? Makes sense. Didn’t you make a similar argument about Hoopy in relation to Suburban’s botched claim?

<snipped>

absolutely did. and it is why i have backed off hoopy the last couple of Days.

yaknow as scum i don’t think i ever lost a game. and to let something so sophmoric as that go down just wouldn’t be in my nature. additionally, nat was a watcher. which can kind of act as a half ass detec, especially in scum hands. in town hands they just know that something happened. a scum watcher knows that a non scum has done something. ipso fucto, town power role. and with a dead doc, well crud if you folks can’t put two and two together let’s use random.org.

and also the tenor of some of the folks voting for me is just a wee bit off. guessing on the set up (starting with chronos’s observation) if i am scum game is over. but folks are still jockeying a wee bit which means that they are setting up for another Day. which means they know that i am not scum. and mother help us if there are six, instead of the posited five.

[peekercpa]

@Chronos

If I’m still alive toMorrow, and the game isn’t over, then I’ll have to consider the case on Stickler (and on anyone else, of course).

<snipped>

bacon, with your waffles, sir?

fuck, even thinking that tomorrow will come based on your presumed 5 scum, knowing that i am scum, in your eyes means that you know that i am town.

do people on this board honestly not see this?

just curious is all (oh shit, that’s another game).

woot woot.

[Chronos]

but folks are still jockeying a wee bit which means that they are setting up for another Day. which means they know that i am not scum.

No, it means we’re not 100% certain that you’re Scum. I think you are more likely to be Scum than any other currently-living player, and so I’m voting for you. That doesn’t mean I can’t be wrong, and it’s prudent for me to consider that possibility and plan for it, just in case.

[peekercpa]

@Chronos

but folks are still jockeying a wee bit which means that they are setting up for another Day. which means they know that i am not scum.

No, it means we’re not 100% certain that you’re Scum. I think you are more likely to be Scum than any other currently-living player, and so I’m voting for you. That doesn’t mean I can’t be wrong, and it’s prudent for me to consider that possibility and plan for it, just in case.

shoot a double order of waffles, then.

[GuiriEnEspana]

@peekercpa

absolutely did. and it is why i have backed off hoopy the last couple of Days.

Really? I saw your post #2209: (snipped)

@peekercpa

i can’t imagine scum hoopy making this kind of fake pm up or even being involved in its design.

But then you kind of took that back in your post #2495: (snipped, added underline)

@peekercpa

i also continue to think that you are scum as well. the shitty scum false pm’s just stink. now, is that because scum don’t know what they are doing or is it because scum want to kind of trip. sorrry, dude but it would be exactly what i would be doing. and don’t get a big head but it is something that i could see coming from your place if you are scum. basically, have town not think that you are scum because you are way to wily for that shit to happen.[…] to be honest, you are the one i leave out. because i can see a smart as shit hoopy doing a double cross and constructing shitty fake pm’s to make folks like me absolve him. but … it still is just kind of hoopyish. and that is a compliment, btw.

It’s true that you’ve moved your focus to Chronos and OaOW but you didn’t actually give a reason for that beyond the fact that there can’t be 3 scum left. The last time you mentioned Hoopy was in #2513:

@peekercpa

i really do think that wanderer, hoopy and chronos are potential scum.

[peekercpa]

and chronos just to keep the discussion going a wee bit. so what would you place the possibility of me being town at this point.

and why?

is it the fact that i posted a bunch to keep shit stirred up? is it the fact that i can’t really figure out who the last or next to last scum is? is it the fact that i have information that i can not share under pain of mod kill? is it because i am just too chatty? is it something else? is is the fact that hp went 15 pages the entire fracking game and i would not allow that to happen again? is it the fact that i think you are scum? i mean seriously. i’d like to see a no hold’s argument against me.

i respect you as a player of this game. matter of fact i would love to be scum or mason with you. i could get nutty and you could predict percentage outcomes. that would be a fucking whopper. but right now you are voting for someone who has information that is town and that does not really endear me to you. of course, the fact that it indicts you probably would color the calculations a touch.

but shoot, just answer the previous questions.

but i will say this in total honesty. your participation in this game has been wonderful even though i think you are full of shit. come on over to idle’s.

[Mahaloth]

**Vote Count:

Peeker(8): Chronos, Hoopy, USCDiver, Meeko, MHaye, Oneandonly, Doctorwho, Snickers

Chronos(1): Peeker

InnerStickler(1): Guiri
Day will end at 11 AM tomorrow(Tuesday, September 21)**

[peekercpa]

yeh, but guiri i am not that smart.

hoopy is. i was still sniffing aroung the trifecta because i know that one of them are scum. it wasn’t until usc posted his pm and i figured it out. i have already came out and said that i really think that chronos is the most likely scum of the group. and i get a little second shooter at times. that’s why i was wondering about hoppy but based on additional information jeebs he’s not my first choice. same as wanderer. i mean that just reaks of scum to all heck. but shoot a threefer, man that is bad play. scum wouldn’t do that don’t ya know. hee hee.

[peekercpa]

and crud i didn’t answer guiri correctly.

yes, i believe that hoppy, wanderer or chronos is the last scum.

i think chronos to be more so than the other candidates.

[peekercpa]

can i get taters for my last meal?

[Meeko]

@peekercpa

can i get taters for my last meal?

Some vodka if you are parched?

[Chronos]

and chronos just to keep the discussion going a wee bit. so what would you place the possibility of me being town at this point.

As several great computers once said or will eventually say, insufficient data for meaningful answer. I don’t have any sort of model which would realistically take into account all (or even enough) aspects of the present situation, nor any quantitative way of measuring things like “being deliberately obtuse” or “trying to distract Town away from correct conclusions”. I could take a WAG as to the probability, but I don’t think that such WAGs are all that meaningful. Fortunately, however, quantitative statistics are not necessary here, just limited rank-order statistics, meaning that all I need to know is that the probability of you being Scum is higher than that of anyone else.

[USCDiver]

@peekercpa

and chronos just to keep the discussion going a wee bit. so what would you place the possibility of me being town at this point.

Between a skosh and a tad

[peekercpa]

@USCDiver

@peekercpa

and chronos just to keep the discussion going a wee bit. so what would you place the possibility of me being town at this point.

Between a skosh and a tad

i’ll make the same deal that billmc made me on another board. he was pretty sure about the alignment of an individual and i really doubted him. we made kind of a funsy bet, but he was dead serious. now i am sponsoring one of his friends that is doing a swim across the channel because i was wrong.

i’ll make the same offer to anyone here. i am not going to play this for personal gain but i sure as heck will play it for charities (now this could be a fun side light).

anyone that wants to bet me that i am scum i will give four to one odds to your charity of choice.

my choice is the spca of san antonio. it’s all an honor system. so if you think i am scum and play 25 bucks for your charity, i will match that with a 100 dollars to yours. that’s how sure i am that i am town. and if you are that sure that i am scum then pony up folks. it’s all for a good purpose. you just tell me if you are in and for how much and if i flip scum then your named charity will get a payment the next day. and when i flip town then i would expect that you would follow through as expediently as well.

let’s see who nuts up and plays.

woot woot.

[Chronos]

You mentioned before that lurking was anti-game? Well, putting up money, even to charities, is even more so. It sets a really bad precedent to effectively buy votes off of yourself.

[Doctor_Who]

What Chronos said…

Also, question for you peeker? When’s the last time a scum vote leader didn’t start all that “well, you’ll find out when I flip” stuff? Heck, Astral was laying it on pretty thick yesterday.

If you are town, your efforts would e much better spent trying to figure out who the remaining scum are, then trying to sow doubt and stay alive through side bets and professing your town alignment repeatedly.

[peekercpa]

why chronos? why can’t we have some funseys and put our pockets where our mouths are. if you are so confident that i am scum then why not help out in your community?

i already know who one of the remaining scum is (and maybe the last one, as well). and i have made that abundantly clear. i have knowledge from the mod that leads me to believe that chronos is scum. what in the world more do you folks want? i mean shit chronos gets a pass because he knew who aragorn was, or so he says based on a hashed mod pm, right? and i have a mod pm that says chronos is full of shit.

i mean seriously what more do you folks want?

[peekercpa]

**maha: kill me or i am posting the whole fucking thing. no shit dude. i’ll wait until around 8 in the morning but if i am not dead then i am going to assume it was a game mechanic. in which case i am going all out. fuck this **.