Lord of the Rings Mafia

[special_ed]

@Doctor_Who

On preview: in 1825, Ed says “However, killing me won’t undo my damage. It will only reduce our mislynches by 1.” Explain yourself. This looks like a slip to me. Don’t you mean it will only increase our mislynches by 1?

It will reduce the number of mislynches we have before losing. Usually, we count mislynches by how many we are allowed. in a game of this size, usually 4.5 to 5.5. Every time we lynch a Town, we reduce it by 1.

[Meeko]

Ok Class, say this with me “assuming Ed is Town. Which, I’m not so sure about”.

Again: assuming Ed is Town. Which, I’m not so sure about

Now, write it 5 times:
assuming Ed is Town. Which, I’m not so sure about
assuming Ed is Town. Which, I’m not so sure about
assuming Ed is Town. Which, I’m not so sure about
assuming Ed is Town. Which, I’m not so sure about
assuming Ed is Town. Which, I’m not so sure about
Why do I Think you guys STILL don’t get this?

---

@Meeko

When does the failed Handshake make Ed Scum MVP? Assume for argument he is town, Even so, we must as town vote for the person being the most anti-town, correct?

Again, assuming Ed is Town. Which, I’m not so sure about. Obviously.

AT NO POINT do I say “I am Voting Ed because I know he is town.” I am simply saying that he is the WORST thing we have going in this game right now. If I were inclined to think he were town, I would STILL vote for him. **As it is, I don’t think he is town, so I am voting for him, even more so. **

@Astral_Rejection

I’ve gotta agree with ed on this one, Meeko. If you think he’s town, the LAST thing you should be doing is voting for him.

assuming Ed is Town. Which, I’m not so sure about != “If you think he’s town”.

@Astral_Rejection

@Meeko

Assume for argument he is town, Even so, we must as town vote for the person being the most anti-town, correct?

You know, the more I think about this, the more scummy it sounds. I can’t think of any reason for a person to suggest assuming another player is town, and voting for them anyway.

**assuming Ed is Town. Which, I’m not so sure about
**

@Chronos

Quoth MHaye:

No earlier than the end of the game. We simply can’t judge the full effects of any action until the game is over.

To expand on this, the most typical Scum MVP is that guy whom nobody even suspected for a moment might be Scum, and who therefore never got lynched for it. If there is such a person in this game, then we won’t, by definition, know it until the end.

Quoth Guiri:

Chronos, when you responded to Gadarene about his suspicions of Suburban role PM, you stated that your wincon appeared after your “powers section”. The PM you’ve posted does not have a powers section. I’m confused.

I meant the section where my powers (or “power”, I suppose, given that that second one isn’t worth much) were listed.

Chronos, you are saying that there is someone here playing worse than Ed this game?

[Before you point a finger at me, check YesterDay’s voting.]

@special_ed

@peekercpa

<i took out my original post>

the question is based on the fact that every time ed has pulled this nonsense in the past he has been town (i am pretty sure of at least 3 of the 4 times) why would you or anyone else not lead this to evidence that he is just being townie ed again?

Every time I was Town.

Also, you point to it being a null tell because Town’s record in those games was 2-2. I’m still telling you that measuring the success of a particular strategy isn’t best done by looking at the end result.

You can’t answer the question “was the strategy successful?” by answering the question, “Did Town win?”

Going back to my original analogy, it’s like asking the question, “Did Andre Dawson hit a home run?” by answering, “He must not have, because the Cubs lost the game today.”

Past results do not predict future events. Funds may lose value, trading involves a significant amount of risk, Funds are not FDIC insured.

If you keep drinking this wine, there will be one game where you get drunk off your ass.

Wait. What? “My Strategy was completely successful, but we lost.” C.F. **“We lose money on each unit, but we will make it up in Volume.” **

@Chronos

I would say that a baseball player hitting a home run must certainly have a positive impact on the results of the game. It’s just that, depending on what all else happened in the game, it just might not have been enough of an impact.

@special_ed

@Chronos

I would say that a baseball player hitting a home run must certainly have a positive impact on the results of the game. It’s just that, depending on what all else happened in the game, it just might not have been enough of an impact.

true, which is why you cannot judge a mafia game action’s success by the won-loss record of the person trying it.

That said, I think no one would argue that I hit into a triple play while trying to hit a home run in this game.

First :
Mafia != Baseball.

Second :
**Triple play MOST CERTAINLY != Home Run
**

@special_ed

@Meeko

NETA: You aren’t confirmed Ed. I don’t see Voting for you and eliminating Scum as mutually exclusive.

OK, but when you say that assuming that Ed is Town he still must be lynched, isn’t the same as saying you think I’m Scum.

Again, assuming Ed is Town. Which, I’m not so sure about. Obviously.
**My Comments on “assuming ed is town” was out of Charity. Even if I were to give him that much, WHICH I AM NOT, Ed still would not make it to where I could not vote him. **

But, ok, sure if you guys want to twist my words, I can’t stop you.

[peekercpa]

@Doctor_Who

Changing the subject: @ Peeker - In post #1823, after I subbed in, you said “and heaven help us if what i think just happened, happened.” After my post, you posted “oh fucking hell, it’s what i thought.” (post #1825) Can you explain these posts please?

<snipped>

well it was primarily my attempt at Nightime humor but here you go.

well i welcomed you and started thinking about who would be willing to step into this beast and suggest that they would be the post leader soon. and it occurred to me that there is one soul who would do that. then after your first reply the tenor of it and the content further added layers to my suspicion.

their is another poster that i am aware of that will remain nameless that has a style remarkably like yours and i see that that handle is not on this board. i just kind of put 2 and 2 together and reached a semi conclusion in my mind.

subsequent posts have confirmed my initial impression. and it doesn’t mean a lick of things in the overall scheme of things just that i think it rather humorous. now could i be wrong and the player that shall remain nameless has a doppleganger, sure.

and like i said it speaks to nothing regarding alignment just kind of amusing, to me.

[special_ed]

@Meeko

**My Comments on “assuming ed is town” was out of Charity. Even if I were to give him that much, WHICH I AM NOT, Ed still would not make it to where I could not vote him. **

But, ok, sure if you guys want to twist my words, I can’t stop you.

Even after all that repetition, you say it again.

I can’t see another way to parse this other than, :Even if Ed were Town, I would still have to vote him."

And yes, you didn’t vote for the Town we lynched yesterDay. I wonder how you knew he wasn’t going to end up Scum despite what most everyone else saw.

[USCDiver]

@peekercpa

well i welcomed you and started thinking about who would be willing to step into this beast and suggest that they would be the post leader soon. and it occurred to me that there is one soul who would do that. then after your first reply the tenor of it and the content further added layers to my suspicion.

their is another poster that i am aware of that will remain nameless that has a style remarkably like yours and i see that that handle is not on this board. i just kind of put 2 and 2 together and reached a semi conclusion in my mind.

Are you talking about RoOsH? He goes by **ToeJam **here now. Doesn’t play much anymore because he’s in med school.

[peekercpa]

@USCDiver

@peekercpa

well i welcomed you and started thinking about who would be willing to step into this beast and suggest that they would be the post leader soon. and it occurred to me that there is one soul who would do that. then after your first reply the tenor of it and the content further added layers to my suspicion.

their is another poster that i am aware of that will remain nameless that has a style remarkably like yours and i see that that handle is not on this board. i just kind of put 2 and 2 together and reached a semi conclusion in my mind.

Are you talking about RoOsH? He goes by **ToeJam **here now. Doesn’t play much anymore because he’s in med school.

yeh, that’s who i was thinking of. and i didn’t say anything more but when who posted the dr. hu thing i was getting ready for shoes.

[special_ed]

@peekercpa

@USCDiver

Are you talking about RoOsH? He goes by **ToeJam **here now. Doesn’t play much anymore because he’s in med school.

yeh, that’s who i was thinking of. and i didn’t say anything more but when who posted the dr. hu thing i was getting ready for shoes.

Hobbits didn’t wear shoes. Glorfindel probably did. I, Faramir, prefer boots.

[peekercpa]

@special_ed

@peekercpa

yeh, that’s who i was thinking of. and i didn’t say anything more but when who posted the dr. hu thing i was getting ready for shoes.

Hobbits didn’t wear shoes. Glorfindel probably did. I, Faramir, prefer boots.

see now there is a good idea for a “handshake” ed. next lotr game just ask everyone what type of footwear they prefer.

[Chronos]

What did Chip have, rootwear?

[Meeko]

@special_ed

And yes, you didn’t vote for the Town we lynched yesterDay. I wonder how you knew he wasn’t going to end up Scum despite what most everyone else saw.

I’m sorry I missed where hindsight fell out of favor and good play became a scum litmus instead. Unless, of course you are projecting yours onto mine.

Sorry for lack of punctuation i’m mobile.

[peekercpa]

ok, as near as i can tell ed has three votes and that is about it, right?

astral for the failed handshake attempt

chronos because he jumped me for not going along with the handshake attempt (which honestly i thought was the correct play - not the jumping part the ignoring part)

meeko because he is the worse thing we have going on in this game

and crud fellers these are cliff notes versions so if i have mis interpreted anything, please let the group know.

i still would like to hear from hoopy and his comments that i have already asked about.

and there are some low volume posters that are making me exceedingly nervous.

[special_ed]

@Meeko

@special_ed

And yes, you didn’t vote for the Town we lynched yesterDay. I wonder how you knew he wasn’t going to end up Scum despite what most everyone else saw.

I’m sorry I missed where hindsight fell out of favor and good play became a scum litmus instead. Unless, of course you are projecting yours onto mine.

Sorry for lack of punctuation i’m mobile.

Hindsight would be an excellent tool to use for casting votes.

If only we were all Doctor Who and could travel back in time and change our votes. Then the game would be easy.

Of course, you seem to be desiring Townie Credibility for not voting for the Town player yesterDay.

Maybe it makes sense to you, but it doesn’t make any sense to me.

[Drain_Bead]

I have misgivings about this ed lynch, although it’s seeming damn near inevitable. In fact, I’d guess we don’t have a Vig in this game, or if we do they’re seriously gimped, because otherwise I’d have guessed he wouldn’t have lived until morning.

My misgivings boil down in my head to “Scum wouldn’t do that,” but they are strong. That’s why I’m asking people to really come up with cases other than just the failshake. Because there could be a very strong benefit to the failshake that we’re not seeing yet. I’ve been analyzing it all game, and I’m noting that the two obvious power roles are gone, but none of those were our Cop, which I’d assume we have in a game this size. Now, we have a pretty big pool of people who matched ed’s handshake, and a larger group who didn’t bother. The Cop, I’m sure, is using this to his or her advantage. If the Scum had the vanilla PM, they probably tried to handshake with ed. If they didn’t, they’re hiding in the pool that didn’t shake. Analyzing the pool of people who shook should tell us something, and potentially end us up with a pile of confirmed Townies and possibly a couple of Scum as we near endgame. I’m sure our Cop has noticed this already and has been working it. The failshake may not be such a fail after all at endgame. And then what does that say about ed?

All this is academic; I know he is going to swing toDay, and he’s probably Scum, my nagging inner voice aside. I’m just thinking that there might be a way that we can work what he did to our advantage.

[special_ed]

@Drain_Bead

I have misgivings about this ed lynch, although it’s seeming damn near inevitable. In fact, I’d guess we don’t have a Vig in this game, or if we do they’re seriously gimped, because otherwise I’d have guessed he wouldn’t have lived until morning.

My misgivings boil down in my head to “Scum wouldn’t do that,” but they are strong. That’s why I’m asking people to really come up with cases other than just the failshake. Because there could be a very strong benefit to the failshake that we’re not seeing yet. I’ve been analyzing it all game, and I’m noting that the two obvious power roles are gone, but none of those were our Cop, which I’d assume we have in a game this size. Now, we have a pretty big pool of people who matched ed’s handshake, and a larger group who didn’t bother. The Cop, I’m sure, is using this to his or her advantage. If the Scum had the vanilla PM, they probably tried to handshake with ed. If they didn’t, they’re hiding in the pool that didn’t shake. Analyzing the pool of people who shook should tell us something, and potentially end us up with a pile of confirmed Townies and possibly a couple of Scum as we near endgame. I’m sure our Cop has noticed this already and has been working it. The failshake may not be such a fail after all at endgame. And then what does that say about ed?

All this is academic; I know he is going to swing toDay, and he’s probably Scum, my nagging inner voice aside. I’m just thinking that there might be a way that we can work what he did to our advantage.

Hmm, interesting.

Why do you think my lynch is inevitable?

3 people are voting for me. They’ve all been on my case for the entire game.

And your analysis makes it appear like there’s a strong possibility that I’m actually Town, which you summarily dismiss in your final paragraph.

And the Cop, somehow he’ll be able to figure out if the people who tried to shake are Town or Scum. How, that’s a mystery. Maybe by determining if the Scum had the Vanilla PM? I’m not sure how he’d do that, but hey. that’s just a detail.

Oh, wait, maybe he’ll do it by focusing all his investigations on the people who tried to handshake! Now, the Scum would love that if they didn’t have the PM. Of course, if they did, then there’s really nothing a Cop could tell about the pool other than by investigating each and every one of them…which…I’m not sure I’d advise. I’d recommend he or she investigate who he wants.
So, yeah, are your misgivings strong or am I probably Scum?

Now, Chronos I can understand. He’s got this mindset that I’m Scum and he won’t let it go until I’m dead. It’s a pity, and it might lead some people to lynch him after I’m gone.

Astral is newer to the game here, and quite possibly Scum.

Meeko is Meeko and I’ve never understood him,

But Drain, I’m puzzled by your sudden, ‘I get a strong vine that Ed is Town, but he’s probably Scum’ approach.

[Red_Skeezix]

@Drain_Bead

I have misgivings about this ed lynch, although it’s seeming damn near inevitable. In fact, I’d guess we don’t have a Vig in this game, or if we do they’re seriously gimped, because otherwise I’d have guessed he wouldn’t have lived until morning.

My misgivings boil down in my head to “Scum wouldn’t do that,” but they are strong. That’s why I’m asking people to really come up with cases other than just the failshake. Because there could be a very strong benefit to the failshake that we’re not seeing yet. I’ve been analyzing it all game, and I’m noting that the two obvious power roles are gone, but none of those were our Cop, which I’d assume we have in a game this size. Now, we have a pretty big pool of people who matched ed’s handshake, and a larger group who didn’t bother. The Cop, I’m sure, is using this to his or her advantage. If the Scum had the vanilla PM, they probably tried to handshake with ed. If they didn’t, they’re hiding in the pool that didn’t shake. Analyzing the pool of people who shook should tell us something, and potentially end us up with a pile of confirmed Townies and possibly a couple of Scum as we near endgame. I’m sure our Cop has noticed this already and has been working it. The failshake may not be such a fail after all at endgame. And then what does that say about ed?

All this is academic; I know he is going to swing toDay, and he’s probably Scum, my nagging inner voice aside. I’m just thinking that there might be a way that we can work what he did to our advantage.

Why do you know that he’s gonna swing today? There are a few days left in toDay for people to either pile-on or pursue other more suspicious avenues. Personally I am unconvinced by any of the cases that have been made against him. There seems to be a general feeling that scum is using his handshake attempt to drive night kills. While that may be valid reasoning, it does not make it the case.

At the end of the day, the handshake was a gambit by ed, it was either a pro-scum gambit or a pro-town gambit. In my opinion the attempt doesn’t make me think ed is scum or make me think he is town. It’s a true null tell. And everything else he’s said and done, isn’t motivating me to vot

I’m going back to my Astral vote for now. Once I get home from work tomorrow, I’ve got to do some digging, there are some players who are/were pinging me, and I need to move them into coherency and check for validity of suspicion, and comparing that to the strength of suspicion that I have that Astral is scum, based on the timing of the USCDiver vote.

vote Astral Rejection

(Oh yeah and sorry for not being very active yesterDay or toDay so far. I started a new job with heavy internet restrictions combined with the dearth of posting that’s been coming through, it’s been a slog and a half to get motivated to participate.)

[peekercpa]

@Drain_Bead

If the Scum had the vanilla PM, they probably tried to handshake with ed. If they didn’t, they’re hiding in the pool that didn’t shake.

<snipped>

first i want you to know that i like playing this game with drain, a lot.

but this may be the most hilarious post that i have ever read in a mafia game.

i have been giving hoopy grief for giving chippy grief about hedging.

but my lord, this one absolutely is the acadamy award winner.

[Meeko]

**When do we look at Pleonast again? ** Does his claim fit the current game state?

Either we look at him to vote him, or, given the rate we are going currently, before long we will need to look at him to right this ship. Either he is lying and we all need to lynch him, OR he will need to revisit his claim again later. When do we demand results?

To think, I actually took a class that covered decision trees. It made sense then, as the prof was describing it. But now, not so much. If you don’t use it, you lose it. Then again, I bet a lot of 27 year olds kinda feel like I do… Already need a refresher course for the subjects they didn’t do as well in. Then again, I bet that is a LOT of people.

[Meeko]

@peekercpa

@Drain_Bead

If the Scum had the vanilla PM, they probably tried to handshake with ed. If they didn’t, they’re hiding in the pool that didn’t shake.

but my lord, this one absolutely is the acadamy award winner.

Peeker: Are you saying that you suspect Drain ?

Not sure I follow you. I was going to make a comment, but I think we are on the same page here.

[Chronos]

Drain, I don’t think it’s a given that, if the Scum had the vanilla PM, they would have tried hiding in the handshake pool. Even with the vanilla PM, they might not have felt comfortable enough with handshaking to try it, and they might also have wanted to leave their options open for a power role claim. Heck, the one Scum we did nab did, in fact, stay out of the handshaking, and did, in fact, make a power role claim. Personally, I think it highly likely that the Scum had the vanilla PM, and I think that the set of who shook tells us nothing about who the Scum are.

[Nanook_of_the_North_Shore]

I keep bouncing back and forth on Ed. On the one hand, yeah he’s done this type of thing before, and was Town. On the other, there’s the way he went about it. He did it in such a way that only Vanilla could shake, and the whole interplay with Chronos is bothersome. A scum Ed with the VT PM could very easily decide to try and out some power roles by using it in the way he did. You’d think Ed, who has experience with handshakes, would know better than to make a silly, simple error of including the powers section in the shake. But people do make mistakes. It’s a conundrum.