Loss of Corn Crops?

[JFLuvly]

What kind of mess would we be in if something happened to the North American corn crops? It seems to me that an awful lot of stuff we eat is based from corn.

[Squink]

Helminthosporium maydis, Southern Corn Leaf Blight; 1970-71:

The new fungus moved like wildfire through one corn field after another. In some cases it would wipe out an entire stand of corn in ten days. Moisture was a key factor; a thin film on leaves, stalks, or husks was all the organism needed to gain entry to the plant. Within twenty-four hours it would start making tan, spindle-shaped lesions about an inch long on plant leaves, and in advanced form would attack the stalk, ear shank, husk, kernels, and cob. In extreme infections, whole ears of corn would fall to the ground and crumble at the touch.

The fungus moved swiftly through Georgia, Alabama, and Kentucky, and by June its airborne spores were headed straight for the nation’s Corn Belt, where 85 percent of all American corn is grown. By this time, however, unsuspecting Corn Belt farmers had already planted their crops and were largely unaware of the bitter harvest headed their way.

At least 80 percent of the hybrid corn in America in 1970 contained T-cytoplasm, which is why “race T” of Helminthosporium maydis laid waste to 15 percent of the nation’s corn crop. “The USA in 1970 had 46 million acres of corn with Texas male sterile cytoplasm,” wrote Iowa State University Pathologist J. Artie Browning in 1972. “Such an extensive, homogenous acreage of plants…is like a tinder-dry prairie waiting for a spark to ignite it. Race T was the spark…”

[engineer_comp_geek]

Corn is in just about everything, but corn doesn’t have to be in just about everything. Corn syrup is used as a sweetener in soda. If corn goes away, they just use sugar (which tastes better anyway, IMHO). Corn is used as a filler in lunch meat. Get rid of corn and there are plenty of other fillers that can be used. The point is that corn is used all over the place because it is dirt cheap. Get rid of the corn, or just make it more expensive, and there are plenty of alternatives for most things.

Popcorn might be an issue.

A lot of the midwest depends on the corn industry, so economically we’d be in a bit of a mess. The guys that do a lot of the corn processing are the guys who make all sorts of foods, so I would expect even non-corn based foods to be economically impacted as well.

[figure9]

The world price of corn would go up. Poor countries that rely on our exports would likely suffer much more than the U.S.

[Bewildebeest]

Most corn is used for animal feed so the price of meat, dairy, and eggs would go way up too.

[Kent_Clark]

The corn blight of the early 70’s was a textbook example. The progression of events is roughly like this:

1. As corn stocks begin to dwindle and prices rise, livestock operators reduce the size of their herds. For a short time, beef, pork and chicken prices actually decline.
2. When supplies continue to tighten,meat, dairy and egg prices increase dramatically.
3. Processed food manufacturers try to hold prices. This lasts for 3-6 months, then those prices rise dramatically.
4. Producers in other countires increase corn production. This helps to stabilize the world price, although U.S. prices remain high.
5. Crop producers plant other crops (in the U.S. that would chiefly be wheat and soybeans) to replace corn.
6. Livestock producers use the other crops as feed, gradually stabilizing meat, dairy and egg prices, although at a higher level than previously.
7. Seed producers ramp up production of corn hybrids that are resistant to that particular type of blight. Corn production gradually increases and things get back to normal.
8. Something else happens a few years later.

[penultima_thule]

@figure9

The world price of corn would go up. Poor countries that rely on our exports would likely suffer much more than the U.S.

Distortion of world grain markets by US export subsidies reduced, grain exporting countries enjoy the level playing field.

Japan is the country most affected by reduced US corn exports. Others that would be affected would be Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Egypt and Columbia.

[R.P.McMurphy]

And of course, as always, it’s the poorest of the poor that suffer the most.

As engineer Pointed out, substitutions of other grains would occur. That would limit the amount of excess food being produced. That would mean that USAID, which supplies bulk food grain to impoverished countries and feeding programs, would cut back. With that, the rate of malnutrition would rise. At what rate? I can’t speculate.

Also, back in the '70’s the use of corn for ethanol was not much of a factor. More oil would have to be imported to make up for the shortfall so there would probably be a significant increase in fuel prices.

[Squink]

@Bewildebeest

Most corn is used for animal feed so the price of meat, dairy, and eggs would go way up too.

Do not forget ethanol production:

A Culinary and Cultural Staple in Crisis
Mexico Grapples With Soaring Prices for Corn – and Tortillas

By Manuel Roig-Franzia
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, January 27, 2007
…
Mexico is in the grip of the worst tortilla crisis in its modern history. Dramatically rising international corn prices, spurred by demand for the grain-based fuel ethanol, have led to expensive tortillas. That, in turn, has led to lower sales for vendors such as Rosales and angry protests by consumers.

How the rising price of corn made Mexicans take to streets
By Jerome Taylor
Saturday, 23 June 2007

Mexico was ablaze in late January. Just two months after the election of Felipe Calderon as Mexico’s President, protests had broken out across the country.

Thousands of people were marching on the main cities calling on their pro-free trade businessman President to halt a phenomenon threatening the lives of millions of Mexicans.

In their hands the protesters clutched cobs of corn, the staple crop that makes tortillas and for many of Mexico’s poor the main source of calorific sustenance in an otherwise nutritionally sparse diet.

Over the past three months the price of corn flour had risen by 400 per cent.

[Oslo_Ostragoth]

There was Modern Marvels show on the History Channel about corn. One small clip is here. I was amazed* at how much industrial use we get out of corn.

The Wiki article is pretty interesting. Usage of the 12.1 Bbushel 2008 crop:

* 5.25 billion bu. - Livestock feed
* 3.65 billion bu. - Ethanol production
* 1.85 billion bu. - Exports
* 943 million bu. - Production of Starch, Corn Oil, Sweeteners (HFCS,etc.)
* 327 million bu. - Human consumption - grits, corn flower, corn meal, beverage alcohol

*I grew up on a farm, but I wasn’t paying attention, I guess.

[ataraxy22]

Hopefully it wouldn’t go like this.

[Duckster]

@Oslo_Ostragoth

There was Modern Marvels show on the History Channel about corn. One small clip is here. I was amazed* at how much industrial use we get out of corn.

The Wiki article is pretty interesting. Usage of the 12.1 Bbushel 2008 crop:

* 5.25 billion bu. - Livestock feed
* 3.65 billion bu. - Ethanol production
* 1.85 billion bu. - Exports
* 943 million bu. - Production of Starch, Corn Oil, Sweeteners (HFCS,etc.)
* 327 million bu. - Human consumption - grits, corn flower, corn meal, beverage alcohol

*I grew up on a farm, but I wasn’t paying attention, I guess.

One of the arguments against [ever-increasing] ethanol production is that it’s driving up prices for all the other uses of corn, including the possibility of corn food shortages. If we infer ethanol production (replacing gas and oil consumption) is not a sum neutral/positive energy equivalent over gas and oil, will we eventually find ourselves with less to eat and starving for real energy production?

Taking the OP at their word, a failure of the North American corn crop may not be a multiplicative disaster but much, much worse.