LSL Guy, Flight schedual around Thanksgiving?

LSL Guy and any other knowledgeable person on Air Line operation around the Holiday’s.

Do they add extra airplanes?
Or actually add separate flights?
Are the airways actually more crowded?

Has ‘GPS direct’ helped?
Has /does ‘GPS direct’ spread the traffic out on the en route phase?

Which is worse, departures or arrivals?
Need to add fuel due to ground waiting for departure?

Pilot/crew availability for all the planes/flights.

Is the video showing normal or actual increased traffic loads?

Any other comments appreciated on things that I missed asking?

See this Video to help with my questions.

Air traffic reality?

Hmmm. Big topic. But a good one.

Last item first …The video shows a fairly ordinary day from 0200 to 2200. It happens to be the day before Thanksgiving, but some other day that same month back in 2013 would look *mostly *indistinguishable. It’s definitely lighter traffic than a random Wednesday in, say, October 2016.

What really stands out to me in the vid are how the flows differ by time of day. e.g. In the wee hours we see lots of eastbound but little westbound. Once it’s daytime the whole thing gets dense in every direction, but density on either side of the Mississippi is a lot different. Lastly in the early evening we see the NYC area launch a continuous hail of machine gun fire northeast toward Europe.
Trying to tackle your broad ideas more or less in order …

Demand:

Thanksgiving and Christmas have very different demand patterns. New Year’s is essentially a first order echo of Christmas.

Most airlines rely on both business travelers and leisure travelers to fill the jets profitably. Over all three holidays the two traffic demands ebb and flow in generally opposite directions but not exactly on the same timing or to the same degree. That opposition damps the peaks and valleys … a bit.

In Thanksgiving we see business travel demand collapse on Mon-Tue before the holiday, with little increase in leisure. On Wed leisure explodes. On Thu-Sat both are dead. On Sun-Mon leisure explodes again. With businesss picking up on weakly on Tue and increasing through the week. Business travel remains rather weak until about Dec 15th when it drops to near zero until midweek after New Years. Which might be the 3rd or might be the 7th depending on what dates are what days of the week.

After leisure travel’s post-Thanksiving Sun-Mon huge surge it collapses to nil until Dec 15th. Then begins a steady climb to the 23rd. It goes berserk on the 24th, drops back to near zero on the 25-26, then starts building again leading to a smaller peak on the 31st, then dead again on Jan 1, big peak on Jan 2-3, then falling back to the typical winter demand which is maybe 80% of summer demand.

As with business demand, the shape of leisure demand over Christmas & New Years depends a bit on how the holiday dates sit vs. the weekends. Thanskgiving doesn’t have that issue; instead we battle with the date being as early as the 22nd or as late as the 28th. Which affects how long the post-Thanksgiving to pre-Christmas lull lasts and how early in Nov we need to ramp for the holiday.

All in all demand is a real bucking bronco. Which we’re actively trying to shape by dynamic pricing. While hoping to outsmart those bastards painted the other colors who’re thinking the same about us.
Supply:

Airlines try to match supply to demand each as best they can. Supply is flexible, but not nearly as much as demand jumps around. Which is what leads to passenger frustration with over-crowding, high holiday fares, and all the rest.

Years ago it wasn’t as practical to make the schedule much different just due to administrative difficulty figuring it all out. Modern software and high capacity computing has removed that obstacle. Which means the limiting factor today is either logistical, or your company’s confidence in their demand projections; it remains the case that oversupplying seats in any given city pair on any given date destroys your margins all day, so there’s financial safety in being a bit conservative. Three knots above stall speed :slight_smile: works so much better than three knots below :eek:.

As an example, my carrier’s internal propaganda tells us we’ll fly about 2/3rds of Dec’s total flights from the 16th-31st and only 1/3rd in the first 15 days. Given that the broad outline of the decision must be made in late September and finalized in early October, that’s leaning pretty hard into the shape of the predicted demand curve.

On the super demand days (the eves of all three) they can run a few extra flights. WAG 5% overall, 10% in key markets. By tricks like: make sure any aircraft going through short-term maintenance inspections are done a couple days before the spike and delay any others coming due by a couple days until after the spike using the grace provisions in the regulations. Decide to reduce the number of spare aircraft which are prepped to deal with day-of failures; but not too many or you may be starring in CNN’s annual angry stranded traveler disaster story.

Slot constrained airports like JFK, LGA, DCA, ORD and a couple others simply can’t hold more flights per day. They’re 100% full 365 days a year. The best you can do there is put in bigger airplanes. Or, ref that offsetting leisure/business mix, do things like kill some of the business-heavy flights to run more leisure-heavy flights to other destinations in the same time slot.
Air traffic, routing, fuel, etc.:

Baseline Nov and Dec traffic is/are already much less busy than summer. So on most of the days where we’re running extra for the holidays it simply means pushing a summer-days worth of airplanes through winter day. I don’t perceive it as particularly busy. In the northeast quadrant things are always near saturation anyhow. As mentioned above, the slot constrained airports look/feel the same every day of the year.

GPS hasn’t really changed much as to traffic. It *does *mean the enroute portion is straighter, quicker, and less fuel burn than the Olde Waye of tacking from VOR to VOR.

And yes, we’re more spread out. When we first got GPS and just used it to fly VOR airways more precisely we’d see a lot more close head-on passes that used to be offset a couple of miles when we were manually chasing wandering VOR needs with +/-4 degree tolerances.

Nowadays the head-on passes have declined and instead we see very gentle crossing paths where we’re both going direct from and to some random place whose routes happen to converge at some random shallow angle at some random spot in the sky.

But we’re not building new airports or runways. All the myriad GPS direct routes into a major airport terminate at just a handful of fixes 100ish miles from the field. Then everybody goes nose-to-tail at minimum spacing to landing. Minor airports are the same except the final merging / metering fix may only be 20 miles from XNA whereas its 150 miles from DFW. Said another way, the US airspace system isn’t short of airspace; it’s short of airports.

The potential future benefits of NextGen and full up GPS-centric airspace and traffic manangement design are another mongo post for another day.

Departures vs. arrivals doesn’t matter much.

One thing that does change is we carry a bunch of extra fuel on the peak days if possible. However harmful a weather slow-down into a major station would be on a holiday, it’d be 10x as bad if many aircraft end up diverting to outstations. Far better to bite the economic bullet and carry an hour’s hold fuel instead of 15 minutes; it’s (relatively) cheap insurance against starring on CNN. Insurance you couldn’t afford to carry 365 days a year but worth it on just 3 or 6 or whatever.

Weather is the big wild card. Winter snow is no good. But neither are summer thunderstorms. Extra fuel on board and extra ground crew including customer service staffing at the airports are our best defense. Any given disruption has the potential to go exponential. The quicker we can damp it back down the less chance it has to go divergent.
Crews:

The 1/3 2/3rd split for our Dec schedule I mentioned above implies most of the days off crews will have will be in the early part of the month. Days off during the last half will be relatively few and far between. And so go to the senior folks. You allocate your reserve crews extra lopsided versus the already lopsided schedule to absolutely maximize coverage on the key days of the key weeks. For reserves it tends to be **General Quarters! All Hands on Deck! **on the peak days.

As an example, I’m supposed to be off the 24th and 25th, but working several days straight on either side. If they call for extra volunteers (for overtime pay) on those key days I might decide to take them up.

As with generating extra airplanes by properly timing their recurring maintenance we can do the same with crews by timing their refresher training. Everybody spends 2-3 days every 9 months at the schoolhouse / sim. If we put a blackout on that during the roughly 3 spread-out weeks of holiday time we free up those pilots and the instructors and check pilots to fly real airplanes on those days instead.

Flight attendants are similar.

Paradoxically the most prominent effect crews have historically seen over holidays is all the flights that *don’t *operate on the dead days, such as Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s themselves. Which has the effect of “stranding” crews in hotels on the magic day when they’d otherwise have gone home a day sooner. It’s bad enough to be out over the holiday, but it feels especially futile / insulting to spend it sitting around a hotel doing nothing productive.

OTOH, I can recall at least the early stages of some truly epic parties involving several carriers’ with multiple crews each, the hotel staff who’re equally stuck, and the limitless supply of food and booze available at a big hotel once everybody loses interest in keeping track of it exactly. :smiley:

WOW !!!
You gave me so much more than I expected so thanks for all the typing.

I am surprised in many ways by your description of what goes on and the traffic load/demand … Would not want to work in scheduling at anytime in the history of airlines. My head would esplode… I forget about the actual day y where not many want to be traveling. I was so totally off on the summer / winter loads.

Great that you pushed me into thinking about maybe we need more airports. Like you said, some are code black 365/24 hrs / day.

The last bit about the parties… yeah … you all deserve those under those conditions.

Back in the 1960’s, Herb Harkum ( sp ) was seniority #1 residing in Tulsa. Did you ever hear of him or is that too early? My point being I got to hear some great stories about having that number.

Hope you get to there and get to enjoy all the perks.

Thanks again for the great reply…

LSLGuy, why does it seem that much of the traffic from Europe is coming almost due West while going to Europe is much more of a Northeasterly direction?

Thanks for the great explanation!

I’m guessing that would be to take advantage of air currents paralleling the Gulf Stream to save on time and fuel.

Thank you, LSLGuy, for putting the time into that detailed schooling.

Interesting about airport capacity. It’s hard to expand in some markets, at least not in convenient locations. E.g. IAD vs DCA. I’d gladly pay an extra $100 to avoid Dulles, but there’s just no room to expand closer to the city.

Bingo!

The routes to Europe are adjusted every day to take max advantage of the jet stream winds eastbound. There are a batch pre-plotted of more or less parallel “tracks” and depending on where the winds are the traffic authorities will select some subset to use today. They generally curve a bit north of the true great circle route.

Conversely, going the other way you want to avoid the jet stream. So those “tracks” run farther south.

Part of the reason greater DC has expanded west is the presence of Dulles. I used to visit Reston frequently on business. I’d gladly pay an extra $100 to fly into Dulles on those occasions.

The real problem of course is that ground transportation is so snarled and grossly inadequate that a modern metropolis would ideally have one LGA/DCA-like airport near downtown and three or four IAD/DFW/ATL-like airports surrounding it in various directions just outside the outer ring suburbs.

Right. I had some business in Herndon prior to moving here, and Dulles certainly was much more convenient. Location-wise, at least. I love me some small airports. IAD entrance-to-gate walking time is longer than the home/office-to-gate total transit time for a surprisingly large radius around DCA.*

And then you have places like Denver where the airport doesn’t have a nearby Reston and is just far away from everything, including the airport hotels that are a $20 taxi ride away.

*That might be partially a design issue. I notice those with places like SAN, which has fewer flights than DCA, but as of a year or two ago puts the rental cars off in the boonies. It took me 30 minutes from exiting the car to arrive at security. But I don’t know how actual airport layout affects travel time. IAD is big, so some parts just have to be farther away. I suppose an alternative is drive-ups to each terminal like SFO, not that I’m holding that up as a model of people-moving speed.

Thanks LSLGuy for an excellent and interesting response.

We are bucking the trend this year and flying at approximately 6am on Christmas Day to Atlanta. Would you expect us to see a practically empty airplane, or does a combination of fewer flights and lower prices make this harder to see?

Karnak predicts a real light load. Let us know how I did. :slight_smile:

I, too, would like to thank LSLGuy - most interesting.

I’m planning to fly PHL to Melbourne (Australia) on Christmas day (by way of LAX). I’ll have the chance to do this in Business Class, with a standby ticket. I’m hoping that the flights will stay empty enough for this scheme to work (Business Class being so much better than Coach).

Good luck. [Go on Christmas and return on New Years] is a tried and true tactic for non-revs. It ought to work as well for space-a upgrades on revenue tickets. Not that you’ll be able to use both legs of that method. At least I *hope *you’ll be Down Under more than just 5 days. Bring your shorts; Dec/Jan is hot in MEL.

Yes - more like 5 weeks.

Roger - saw this last time I was there.