Something I haven’t seen discussed here: What are the likely macroeconomic effects of the virus and the responses of the various governments? Will economic balance of power among nations shift? Will events already in progress be sped up?
This article only touches on the possible effects:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-29/economic-life-after-covid-19-lessons-from-the-black-death
The internal economic performance of different counties might be affected for a decade but their relative size and how they integrate is, sadly, likely to be pretty much unchanged. A 5% GDP hit of the US economy still keeps it in a different universe to most other economies.
The analyses of GDP vs Covid deaths done to date show that there is no trade-off of robust-economy-or-low-death, which was the premise driving US economic policy last year. Rather its suggesting, based on just-released Australian figures, that if you looked after the mechanics of the pandemic and kept it suppressed your economy was much better prepared to spring back.
The interesting thing, which is still to emerge, is the longer term disruptions, of which two stand out to me.
First is the enforced worldwide adoption of Zoom, Teams etc, which otherwise would have dragged out over a decade or two. Suddenly much of the world is reachable by video-chat in a way we did not really understand 12 months ago. At least it might encourage more outsourcing of work to the Indias and make it less anonymous. At most it could encourage more economic unions and seamless EU style blocs because borders will be less relevant.
The other one is the impact on global tourism which is fundamental to some economies. Some may never recover, and have to manage the permanent economic effects of many less tourists, disaffected workers and service economy.