[QUOTE=peekercpa]
Real life intrudes. My daughter has to have her appendix taken out in an hour or so. I will try to check in during the night but will not make any guarantees.
[/QUOTE]
Tell the surgeons we’ll lynch them if they don’t do their best!
(Kidding. Best wishes for a speedy recovery!)
[QUOTE=Menocchio]
I agree with WF Tomba.
Unvote fluiddruid
Vote bufftabby
I just went back looked through. There’s very little of substance there. Not much general strategy chatter, and absolutely no discussion of today’s vote, outside of a random vote for me, after stating that you didn’t like random votes.
I think fluiddruid is showing some serious confirmation bias throughout, but at least she’s in the mix and out there hunting.
[/QUOTE]
<Bolding mine>
Are you sure that’s what I said? Let’s take a look:
[Quote=buff]
If nobody emerges as a scum frontrunner in the next 48 hours or so, I suppose I’ll choose someone at random. But I don’t especially like random choices, because that’s not really much of a choice. So I’m going to hold off on voting for now. I wanna see how this plays out.
[/quote]
I think you’ve misrepresented my words severely here. I clearly indicate that I do not prefer a random vote, but rather an actual choice based on scumminess. And now I’ve found one: you. I was really hoping to find something scummy, so that I could take my random vote off of you, but instead you completely misrepresented my words to cast me in a negative light. I’m gonna go ahead and consider that some highly possible scumtell action. Now I actually feel pretty satisfied with my vote for you.
Good luck, peekercpakid!
[QUOTE=Menocchio]
You doubt, but you can’t know. If Sach wanted us to understand that there were 1 Doctor and 1 Detective and 2 Masons and Nothing else, he would have told us so. The veil of secrecy over the power roles means that we can’t truly assume anything outside of the dead. Given that we are working behind a fog, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if there was something more than simple among the Simpletown elite.
I can’t really by trying to confuse anybody anyway, since this is just general strategy chatter and no one is role-claiming anything right now.
[/QUOTE]
Yeah, I understand it’s just general strategy chatter (not much else to discuss day 1), but I still don’t like this:
I’m going to assume it is the case because that is what we were told by sachertorte. I’ve seen nothing to give any indication this is a bastard mod game, so I guess we’ll just disagree on this point.
Anyway, I’ll leave my vote on you, for now, menocchio, weak-ass reasoning as it may be because this just maybe kinda looks to me like a way to set scum up to role-claim something out of the ordinary, when I’m assuming this is a rather ordinary game.
Also, I’ll reiterate that barring something extraordinarly suspicious on day 1, which I have yet to see, I won’t be voting for a new player (no real reason to vote for anyone, so I might as well ruin an experienced player’s day and let the newbs make it to day 2), so I’m limiting myself on today’s vote. And because I have yet to determine a workable day 1 strategy, I’ll admit this makes things easier for me.
I’m not advocating this admittedly silly restriction for anyone else, just that as someone who’s been voted off day 1 a couple times, I’m just trying to be nice 
Except to Menocchio I guess. I’ll be guns-blazing tomorrow, though.
[QUOTE=MadTheSwine]
Vote Zuma
With his early lurking,switching votes three times and casting the dreaded 3rd vote for Mennochio
[/QUOTE]
OMGUS!!
Early lurking: I’ve always been kinda streaky in my posts.. I get busy at work and have other shit going on. I may lurk for a couple days at a time in the future. Nothing to see here.
Vote switching: Votes are cheap. I’ve been one of the loudest advocates about putting yourself on record with votes, and changing them as circumstances warrent. Non-voting is the awful, scummy thing to look out for. Being cautious with votes is one of the biggest scum tells I’ve seen game after game. I basically randomly voted for shadowfacts, as one of the experienced players.
Then I saw something by koldenar I did not like, and voted for him, then asked him to clarify a statement he made. He clarified it, and I moved my vote to menocchio I’ve explained each of my votes and I don’t see anything wrong with voting and unvoting based on changing circumstances. Certainly on day 1.
3rd vote: Come on, madtheswine. Are you trying to confuse people here? You and I both know that the third vote thing only works if one is not familiar with the third vote thing. That’s what got menocchio in trouble the first game.. he wasn’t familiar with it. Once you know about it, it is all WIFOM. You know I know about the third vote thing.
[QUOTE=MadTheSwine]
For that reason, and the fact that zuma voted for you, and you now seem to be staunchly defending him makes me think you are scum. Good cover, if it works.
unvote zuma
Vote ShadowFacts
[/QUOTE]
Oh for god’s sake, madtheswine. Do you really think you’ve caught two scum on day 1? This is another in the long list of nonsensical thing you’ve done in these games (and I can appreciate this, I’ve done my share of nonsensical things).
For the sake of argument, assume I am scum. Do you really think shadow would defend me against your tortured logic if she were scum as well?
For me, I know I’m town, so it’s possible to me that shadow may be scum trying to ingratiate herself with me…
I’ve played with you before, mts, and you do employ weird strategies which seem scummy (remember m5?), so, at least for now, I’ll stick with my menocchio vote, because his behavior has disturbed me much more than any other experienced player at this point.
Complete and total fluffpost:
“Simpletown” now has this song running through my head every time I’m in this thread:
Can I be the mayor of Simpletown? I have the cd somewhere…
Everything went fine. I certainly won’t go into details and pollute this thread any more than I already have. I’ll probably start a MPSIMS thread when things calm down.
What little I was able to re-read before my Blackberry ran out of juice leads me back to my first choice.
In trying to look at the whole motivation thing Queen of Town’s “snuggle” did sure read like trying to build some cred if I get lynch and when I turn up town.
I want to at least make sure I have a vote on record so therefore,
Vote Queen of Town
I’ll have limited access the rest of the day doing the discharge thing and getting the kid home and comfortable.
Unnoffical vote count:
4 - Menocchio (fluiddruid, bufftabby, zuma, ShadowFacts)
2 - WF Tomba (Ice Cream Man, pedescribe)
2 - peekercpa (Koldanar, Mind Wanderer)
2 - Sitnam (Blaster Master, Nanook of the North Shore)
2 - bufftabby (wf tomba, menocchio)
1 - MadTheSwine (Sitnam)
1 - ShadowFacts (MadTheSwine)
1 - fluiddruid (Queen of Town)
1 - Queenoftown (peekercpa)
Day One will end on Thursday, 3 April 2008 at 4:00PM (East Coast Bias) 5 hours from now
six hours from now, actually.
[QUOTE=zuma]
Day One will end on Thursday, 3 April 2008 at 4:00PM (East Coast Bias) 5 hours from now
[/QUOTE]
Hey! I made the end of Day 4PM EDT so that the West Coast people would have the morning and lunch hour to check in. Ending at noon (lunchtime) would have been much more convenient for me.
[QUOTE=sachertorte]
Hey! I made the end of Day 4PM EDT so that the West Coast people would have the morning and lunch hour to check in. Ending at noon (lunchtime) would have been much more convenient for me.
[/QUOTE]
Oh how generous of you 
Just FTR, I am considering changing my vote to MadTheSwine, but I am waiting to hear back on the questions I asked him before I decide. I’d also like to hear from Mennochio, given that he is the current vote leader.
(And zuma, I’m a guy).
[QUOTE=bufftabby]
Not being BlaM, I can’t speak for him, but I know we discussed this a bit in the last game too. I think his whole point of view (and I know he’ll correct me if I’m wrong), which I definitely feel is worth considering, is that a single behavior has several possible motivations. Although in the last game, he presented this argument to deflect suspicion from the newb Boss, I still think it’s a good idea. Using the example from the last game: the Boss killed on Night One instead of recruiting. Many people said, “oh that’s a newb mistake: obviously this Boss is a newb.” While that did turn out to be the case, it’s still worthwhile to note that it could just as easily have been an experienced player using a newb move to deflect attention from themselves. One must consider all possible motivations behind a behavior to properly analyze it, rather than just the most obvious possible motivation. That’s really where “null tells” come into play as well.The behavior: the newb frothing at the mouth. The most obvious possible motivation: a scum effort to be Townie, gone a bit overboard. Another possibility: an over-eager newb Townie. Given that both possibilities seem to have about an equal chance, one would want to examine other behavior in both lights, and see which possible motivation is more consistent with this other behavior. Without any other proof, over-eagerness is a null tell, especially from a newb.
[/QUOTE]
To be fair, most of the discussion about motivation in the previous game was while I was still town, as I wasn’t recruited until the third Night.
As for motivation, the important thing about it is that it’s what helps us combine and analyze behaviors. For instance, any particular behavior could have a pro-town or anti-town result, but this fails as a way to analyze behavior because townies want to help the town, and scum want to look like they’re helping the town, thus, most anti-town actions are the result of bad strategy or miscalculation for either side and does little to differentiate whether the actor is townie or scum.
Motivation is always present. A particular behavior may have motivation that favors one side or the other, but when enough actions are analyzed, one will see a pattern that ultimately favors one side or the other. This is because, regardless of how skilled or intelligent you are, your motivation is always present.
The way you divine the motivation is by looking at an action, and try to determine what your motivation might be for it if you were town, and what it might be if you were scum. This part is usually pretty simple. For instance, X voted for Y who was a townie. X, as a townie, could have been convinced he was scum or X, as scum, could have wanted a townie dead. The hard part is trying to figure out how likely it is you would have done that. In the same example, how convincing were the arguments, did X seem convinced, what would the scum have to gain by killing him, etc. Then all you do is compare those and you have a general motivation behind the behavior.
You are right about null tell, though. I use it to describe an action that I perceive as having very close to the same level of motivation for either townie or scum. As you correctly point out, eagerness is enjoying playing the game, both a townie or scum could just as easily be eager to play. Hence, it makes no sense to use it to support a case on it’s own. However, over-eagerness could still potentially be used if combination with other contradictory behaviors, but that’ll just confuse the issue, so…
[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]
(And zuma, I’m a guy)
[/QUOTE]
I intially read that as “I’m gay”
[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]
I’d also like to hear from Mennochio, given that he is the current vote leader.
[/QUOTE]
I’ve got nothing else, I’m afraid. My last post is pretty much my best guess at scum right now. I still think that bufftabby’s distancing herself from a random vote and then using one anyway is rather inconsistent, and convenient.
Now that of I’ve accused her, of course, she can easily claim innocent confirmation bias and townie defensiveness once I turn up town. But I think she’s been low-content enough Today to arouse anyone’s suspicions.
[QUOTE=zuma]
I intially read that as “I’m gay”
[/QUOTE]
First of all, I’m reasonably convinced from my discussions with Sitnam that our disagreements are strategic and not necessarily because of motivation, so…
Unvote Sitnam
[QUOTE=Menocchio]
It’s Day 1, and I have very little to go on. If you don’t lynch me, then I can break out the claws.
[/QUOTE]
I just remembered, this gave me a 
moment. This sounds like you’re trying to imply you have some sort of power role without actually stating it. This is just silly if you actually are, so I see a lot of scum motivation behind this statement. I would like an explanation from you on this.
You’ve also seemed to be engaging in trying to generate a lot of paranoia. You’ve done a lot of discussion about possibilities of exotic roles, two doctors and such, and none of it has really resulted in productive discussion.
I have one other person I would consider voting for , but absent of a good explanation for the quoted statement, I just don’t see it.
Vote Menocchio
[QUOTE=Menocchio]
I’ve got nothing else, I’m afraid. My last post is pretty much my best guess at scum right now. I still think that bufftabby’s distancing herself from a random vote and then using one anyway is rather inconsistent, and convenient.
Now that of I’ve accused her, of course, she can easily claim innocent confirmation bias and townie defensiveness once I turn up town. But I think she’s been low-content enough Today to arouse anyone’s suspicions.
[/QUOTE]
Well, I didn’t distance myself. I said it wasn’t my preferred method. Are you saying that you would prefer a random vote to one based on actual suspicion?
I find this all especially funny, since I’ve been searching for scummitude all over the place so that I could find a legitimate vote to replace my random vote on you.
And I’m not sure what you mean by saying I can “claim innocent confirmation bias and townie defensiveness”. I’ve already laid out my reasons for keeping my vote on you. I don’t think I need to “claim” anything.
And one last bit, on the low-content claim: what content is it, precisely, that you would like for me to generate? Only scum just makes up reasons to vote for people. I didn’t have any suspicions, so I didn’t present any. Makes sense to me. Since this is only my second game, I must confess that I don’t have a lot of general strategy chatter available. I also like to see how things develop, as I’ve already stated. Strategizing about power role claims, when we have no power role claims, is fine for those who want to do it, but seems pointless for me to engage in. I’m a case-by-case kinda girl.
Well, looks like I’m boned.
I’m going out now, and I don’t know if I’ll be back before 4 (going to see a movie, possibly There Will Be Blood, which is appropriate). In any event, it seems like that I’m just digging myself deeper.
I will not role-claim, except to plead that I’m pro-town, for what little that’s worth.
fluiddruid, I think you’re town, but you’ve shown a remarkable amount of confirmation bias Today. That may be just because it’s Day 1 and all we have is cheap gut feelings, random votes and confirmation bias. But if it isn’t, watch it. Better targets than me will present themselves in the future. You’ve got a good killer instinct and I’d hate to see you pass them up because you’ve got you jaws too firmly in someone else’s flesh.
Blaster Master, all I meant was that I can hardly be as bloodthirsty Today as I got last game, when there’s so little evidence at the moment. I voted no-lynch on Day 1 there, you’ll recall.
I will not here reiterate my case against bufftabby, but I still stand by it.
Ah well, I guess someone has to get ganked first. At least this time I’m not head scum. That was embarrassing as hell.
Criticism noted. I’m not saying I’m in any way absolutely sure you’re scum - I just simply have no other real option at this point since I don’t have much of a read on anyone else. This will of course be unfair because there are a lot of players here I don’t have experience with, but them’s the breaks.
FWIW, the only other person I’m tempted to vote for is MadTheSwine because of lurkerdom, but my impression is that this is pretty par for the course for Mad, so we’ll see. I’d still like to encourage lurkers to speak the heck up. I know we don’t have much to go on at this point, but if people sit on their hands because of that, then we won’t have much to go on in the future either.