Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler

The Game Room
2041

[QUOTE=Millit the Frail]
I’ve spent all night thinking on this (and all morning, through two whole meetings!) and I had come to some of the same conclusions, even before I saw your posts. And now, I see tirial’s suspicion list and her vote for Rachm Qoch, which seals the deal for me.

Let’s kill a scum and answer the question of a recruit once and for all.

Vote tirial.
[/QUOTE]

Thanks Millet.

I’m not going to spend time arguing the case. I am simply going to point out that Rachm Qoch and Diggit are scum, have been from Day One, and can be linked directly to Lemur and fluiddruid.

I’m not sure about Blaster Master, but I don’t think he’s scum - too many obvious plays - I might be wrong.

I’m not fussed about the recruit - in fact I will point out that I have been saying I don’t think it has occured for some time. Thinking about it, I have a nasty suspicion about why Idle Thought’s posting style changed, but I will need to confirm with Gad before I post as it would also give another reason why he was removed.

Hal, nesta, you - you are all coming off as town. I know I am town I will also point out that I went straight after Lemur866 and fluiddruid, in the same way I am going after rachm, because I am pretty certain he is scum and have been saying this for some time.

2042

Gadarene, you have been PM’d. It is important, and has affected my play for the last few days. Please respond ASAP.

2043

[QUOTE=tirial]
I’m not going to spend time arguing the case. I am simply going to point out that Rachm Qoch and Diggit are scum, have been from Day One, and can be linked directly to Lemur and fluiddruid.
[/QUOTE]
I’m thinking you’re half right. I’m still not buying Diggit as scum. However, you’ve made a very good case all along against Rachm, with a very nice summation in Post #2029. I’d be inclined to go along with your thinking, if we can determine where your allegiance lies.

Which brings me to if you’re scum or not. I have one indicator that has jumped out at me, but I’m really not sure what to make of it. You and I have something in common here – we’re the only two players who have never had a vote cast against us. Not even a vote/unvote. FOS’s, yes…votes, no.

Now, what do I make of that? Do I take the approach of “Ok, in this situation, it’s probably one town and one scum, meaning tirial has to be scum”, or do I go with “We both must be doing something right, so he’s probably town as well”?

I’m inclined to believe the latter. I’m still suspicious as hell of nesta, but I’m going to vote Rachm Qoch

2044

[QUOTE=Gadarene]
(snip)

To sum up: There are eight players left. If, at the end of a day, there are as many Mafia members as non-Mafia members, the Mafia wins. Any questions?

I’m on a roll!
[/QUOTE]

And… how exactly could that happen?

I mean, 8-1=7. Unless someone can be half-scum, I don’t see how there could be as many Mafia members as non-Mafia members.

2045

:confused: I didn’t say there were as many Mafia members as non-Mafia members right now…

2046

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
And… how exactly could that happen? I mean, 8-1=7. Unless someone can be half-scum, I don’t see how there could be as many Mafia members as non-Mafia members.
[/QUOTE]

Night phase. 2 people get killed /Day.

8 players; 2 scum.
Day 1, 2 non scum killed
Day 2, 2 non scum killed.
2 scum, 2 non-scum

8 players 3 scum
Day 1 1 non scum killed
4 non scum 3 scum
Night phase 1 1 non scum killed.
3 non 3 scum.

If you work in a recruit I’m sure its possible, but more complex. Same if you factor in no lynches and no kills, unlikely as they are.

2047

[QUOTE=tirial]
Thanks Millet.

I’m not going to spend time arguing the case. I am simply going to point out that Rachm Qoch and Diggit are scum, have been from Day One, and can be linked directly to Lemur and fluiddruid.

(scum)
[/QUOTE]

Again: Where/when did Lemur866 devote that entire post to the doctor’s recruitment? The timing is important: and if it coincides with the timing of his SnakesCatLady accusation, he might have been using reverse psychology with that as well.

And, how and where can I be linked to Lemur and fluiddruid?

2048

[QUOTE=tirial]
Night phase. 2 people get killed /Day.

8 players; 2 scum.
Day 1, 2 non scum killed
Day 2, 2 non scum killed.
2 scum, 2 non-scum

8 players 3 scum
Day 1 1 non scum killed
4 non scum 3 scum
Night phase 1 1 non scum killed.
3 non 3 scum.

If you work in a recruit I’m sure its possible, but more complex. Same if you factor in no lynches and no kills, unlikely as they are.
[/QUOTE]

That’s also why I think a) we need to get a scum today and b) there are two scum - if there are three we are so close to losing its not funny.

2049

[QUOTE=Gadarene]
:confused: I didn’t say there were as many Mafia members as non-Mafia members right now…
[/QUOTE]

Neither did I.

But never mind, tirial already answered…

2050

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
Again: Where/when did Lemur866 devote that entire post to the doctor’s recruitment? The timing is important: and if it coincides with the timing of his SnakesCatLady accusation, he might have been using reverse psychology with that as well.

And, how and where can I be linked to Lemur and fluiddruid?
[/QUOTE]

It doesn’t coincide with his accusation against SCL. While I dig it out, here’s some more for you to look at. My notes, unformated, haven’t bothered formatting you can view the actual posts.

And if you think my posting style has changed its because I’m bloody furious.

I’ve been consistant with my suspicious list. P1894

1889 Diggit - saying “what they used the same strategy twice” seeing how things turned out, yes they did.
1886 Diggit - “strong scum are unlikely to start a movement to lynch a townie”. What exactly would you call Day One and fluiddruid then?

1877 Diggit voted for Lemur866 - so if we kill Diggit do we then find out scum on scum action?

Rachm Qoch also misrepresented BlasterMaster’s voting history - although blastermaster keeps saying I did.

1871 Rachm Qoch suggests we should ignore townie past voting history if we don’t know a recruit has taken place. Wouldn’t it be easier simply to look at past posting histories to look for players who may have been scum from the beginning? Only a mafia would look at it to prove someone was town.

1853 Rachm again agreeing with lemur that if the doctor claims they should be lynched. Also as we now know he misrepresents what occurred.

Whatever.

2051

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
For those who don’t know what post of tirial’s I’m talking about, it’s this one.

Now, I understand tirial’s reasons perfectly:

  1. She, as the doctor, was using the well-known and accepted practice to self-protect at night
  2. After a no-kill night, she suddenly realized that that could easily lead to a recruitment attempt on her, and tried to diffuse attention from herself, alleging she had managed to attract the Doctor’s protection

However, view this from the scum’s point of view (if we suppose they tried to kill her on Night 3-this post was taken from Day 4, btw)

  1. They tried to kill her and failed
  2. You can be certain they were watching her posts like hawks, trying to see if she revealed herself

If no one else had picked up my idea I would have simply thought I was wrong. Which is why I simply outlined what I thought had happened in this post. Since Idle Thoughts guessed the same person I had guessed, I think the idea that scum noticed the same post is not too unlikely.
[/QUOTE]

Well, now that the cat’s out of the bag… you summed up the other reason I was avoiding mentioning in believing that tirial was recruited. Namely that I’m convinced she’s the doctor.

tirial:

If we assume the mafia had tried to hit you on the first no-kill night, if you weren’t the doctor, why would you have any reason to believe that you had not only drawn enough attention to be hit by the mafia, but had also drawn enough trust from the doc for him to not self-protect? We can surmise that, if the doctor is self-protecting, and there’s a no-kill, then he has a darn good reason to believe he was targeted and, since the mafia can probably figure he’s self-protecting, then they have a darn good reason to suspect they hit you as well.

This is why I think, if you are the doctor, you had an “oh crap” moment, and you were either 1) trying to disspell their suspicion that you were the doctor, OR 2) you decided to all but claim Doctor, hoping they had tried to hit you, and that you would be recruited (because at that point, quite frankly, things were looking quite bleak for us).

In fact, until **Lightnin’**s lynching, I’d thought you were the other do-gooder, and were using the second ploy to try to convince them that you were the doctor so they’d waste their recruit on you, which I thought was brilliant. Then, after we found out he was the last do-gooder (and, thus, that you were not), I got very concerned that it was just that.

In fact, the only real doubt that remains for me that you weren’t recruited is the one line that was brought up by Lemur essentially saying that we should lynch the doctor if he claims. Now, why would he say that if you are the doctor and they had recruited you? Obviously, the whole SCL thing was a double bluff, but can we make that same assumption about his insistence that the doctor should be lynched if he claims? We have to figure that if at least **Diggit, Idle ** (I assume), and I all came to this conclusion some days ago, that you were likely the doctor based on that statement, then we have to also imagine that the mafia would’ve known that as well. Which means, they either recruited you on the second night or they’ve been setting the framework to get you lynched when you were finally forced to claim.

So now I’m left debating in which of these two scenarios we are, and that’s why I’m hesitant to vote for you.

2052

And Diggit - here’s some reasons why there wouldn’t have been a doc recruit yet.

Lemur866 giving a masterclass in fishing for power roles:
P1166, P1197, P1207

P1327 if the Doctor better off dead than recruited.

P1332 If the Doctor claims we can assume false and lynch that day, or if they survive to the next day, lynch them then. Idle thoughts points out its bull and his logic has huge holes.

P1475 Argues against my post pointing out he’s been fishing…

P1628 he believes recruitment option.
P1649 – sceptical of doctor roleclaims and thinks he’s been recruited.

P1655 – Will lynch doctor when claims.

Probably cos they can’t nightkill the doctor.

2053

I’m not in a position to answer this in great detail right now, but I’ll try to address anything that doesn’t make sense later tonight.

[QUOTE=tirial]

Voting record:
1: Omi/Zuma (T)
2: projammer (Town power role)
3: fluiddruid (S)
4: fluiddruid (S)
5: lemur (S) - last vote of the day and out of left field.
6: fourth vote for Lemur (S) - why so late if he still suspected him from the last day?
7: Diggit - again last vote of the day and out of left field.

Rachm Qoch,

I think that you are scum.

P2023 - “We have no clear scum/scum activity so far in the game.” Oh, I think we’ve had scum v. scum activity, we just haven’t killed the scum to confirm it yet.
[/quote]
This is pretty much what I was saying. In a roundabout way I was saying it’s there somewhere but we just haven’t found it so far.
[QUOTE=tirial]

Your first anti-lemur866 vote (out of left field at the end of a day when he wasn’t at risk), would be what I was looking for in scum v. scum. Notable that this matches the pattern of your vote for Diggit.
[/quote]

  1. You are flat wrong that my vote for Lemur was out of left field. I clearly voiced my suspicion for him earlier more than once.

  2. Far from aligning myself with Diggit, I did everything I could to get him lynched yesterday. I had a different vote count than Gadarene, and found the reasoning behind Idle’s vote for SCL peculiar. And because Diggit was at the top of my scum list yesterday, in addition to voting him I tried persuading others to vote him too. Besides, if it’s so clear that my supposed mafia status is predicated upon the belief that Diggit is scum, why aren’t you making a case against Diggit instead?

[QUOTE=tirial]

You made the notorious “me to” posts with CaerieD, and early in the game you were cautioned for not contributing. At this point it was town v. town (Day One, where we now know that Omi no Kami, percypercy, Lightnin’ and Projammer were all town, and Day two, dnooman v. Projammer, both town). Why should a scum come above the parapet and put themselves at risk then? Later, when fluiddruid was at risk, you started to post.
[/quote]

  1. Very early on I came to the conclusion that CaerieD was surely town and Omi no Kami was surely scum. I now realize how my reasoning on the matter was completely bass-ackward, and I can go into further in depth there later, but because I was so firmly convinced at the time CaerieD was town, I was inclined to give greater consideration to what she had to say.

  2. " Why should a scum come above the parapet and put themselves at risk then?" Again you have this completely backwards. If I were scum, why on earth would I draw scrutiny to myself by potentially casting the deciding vote against town? Much better strategy would be to vote for someone in third or fourth place and remove myself from debate entirely, like you claim I did with Lemur

I didn’t follow Game Two at all past the first few days, and don’t really remember the details of what went on in Game One. Are you seriously arguing we should be basing cases against people without giving adequate information necessary for us to understand what you’re talking about?

You completely take that post out of context. Nowhere was I voicing support for fluiddruid – that post was about Projammer! Go back and reread what Kyrie was alluding to.

tirial, you have previously distinguished yourself as an exceptionally analytical player, but your reasoning here is so weak I’m seriously wondering about you.

2054

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]

In fact, until **Lightnin’**s lynching, I’d thought you were the other do-gooder, and were using the second ploy to try to convince them that you were the doctor so they’d waste their recruit on you, which I thought was brilliant.
[/QUOTE]
That’s what I hoped you’d think, and was trying very hard to convince people that I was the Dogooder, and was working very hard towards (right up until lightnin’ got himself killed). It reduced the mafia target pool and left someone in it who was immune. Glad at least someone followed the logic - hopefully the scum did as well, but I can’t see them recruiting **Lightnin’ ** - he was too busy being suspicious.

If there are 3 scum the town’s already lost unless we get a scum each day and they get a mason each night consistantly. The odds against this are huge.
3 scum, 3 masons, 2 town.
Kills result: 2 scum, 2 masons, 2 town.
This doesn’t play out much better for the masons than the town either.

If there’s 2 and they used their recruit then:
2 scum, 3 masons, 3 townies
We can have one “missed” lynch, but if we get a townie not a mason the town is pretty much guaranteed a loss.

If the recruit occurred and they got a mason:
2(+1) scum, 2(+1) masons, 3 town
So, to win the town needs to get a scum each day, and a dead mason each night. Unfortunately there’s a player whose goal is to ensure that all the townies are removed and who knows who the masons are - and who can lie to the mafia as his first loyalty is still to the masons. Ensuring one town kill could give the masons the game, and there would be someone in position to do that.

If there are two scum and the recruit is outstanding then the town has pretty much lost unless the scum do something really stupid. (I’d suggest they could vote no-kill each night, but last time they failed to kill we went off lynching townies like Projammer instead of scum, so we aren’t any better).

And once again, I think its Diggit and Rachm - I’m going for rachm cos I am more certain of him. Not sure about you.

But regardless its 1 tirial, 2 Rachm, and if there were three mafia left I’d have been amazed if they hadn’t piled on me the second there was another vote. They just need one non-scum dead to put them ahead. So I think there are two.

2055

[QUOTE=Rachm Qoch]
tirial, you have previously distinguished yourself as an exceptionally analytical player, but your reasoning here is so weak I’m seriously wondering about you.
[/QUOTE]

My attention is not currently on this aspect of the game as I have a sizable distraction to consider.

I am waiting on further feedback and will be posting no further analysis until I receive it.

P.S. you are still scum.

2056

[QUOTE=tirial]
And Diggit - here’s some reasons why there wouldn’t have been a doc recruit yet.

Lemur866 giving a masterclass in fishing for power roles:
P1166, P1197, P1207

P1327 if the Doctor better off dead than recruited.

P1332 If the Doctor claims we can assume false and lynch that day, or if they survive to the next day, lynch them then. Idle thoughts points out its bull and his logic has huge holes.

P1475 Argues against my post pointing out he’s been fishing…

P1628 he believes recruitment option.
P1649 – sceptical of doctor roleclaims and thinks he’s been recruited.

P1655 – Will lynch doctor when claims.

Probably cos they can’t nightkill the doctor.
[/QUOTE]

OK. Thanks.

Like BlasterMaster pointed out, the reason I haven’t yet voted is that though there is the definite possibility that you have been recruited, it is by no means certain (it gets worse when we look at the faux no-kill night).

The two possibilities I see for scum to take out the doctor are:

  1. Lynch by townies
  2. Recruitment

Even worse: if we are wrong about your recruitment, it opens up the possibility that they still have a recruitment available. In that case, we are pretty much damned if we do, damned if we don’t: if we don’t lynch you today because you convinced us you haven’t been recruited, you might be recruited during the night… and we’ll start all over again, tomorrow.

In other words: if anyone has a convincing argument about anyone else (or, if everyone else has by now been convinced that ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies is scum), I’d argue to leave tirial be, until push comes to shove (aka we are convinced she is the last scum)

A point here: Day 4 ended with this post.

2057

[QUOTE=tirial]

1853 Rachm again agreeing with lemur that if the doctor claims they should be lynched. Also as we now know he misrepresents what occurred.

Whatever.
[/QUOTE]

This is 100% the opposite of what I was saying!!! from the post you are citing:

In at least two previous posts I cast doubt on the prospect of the doctor being recruited precisly because Lemur was pushing the issue so hard. I came up with the position you now have vis-a-vis the doctor, only you somehow think I’m the most suspicious person in town because I had the idea before you did!

2058

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
A point here: Day 4 ended with this post.
[/QUOTE]

I do not think that post points where you think it points. :cool:

It’s pointing to the Day One Dawn. What did you mean it to point to?

2059

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
In other words: if anyone has a convincing argument about anyone else (or, if everyone else has by now been convinced that ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies is scum), I’d argue to leave tirial be, until push comes to shove (aka we are convinced she is the last scum)
[/QUOTE]

I mean to respond to this part as well. I can agree with you there, because even if she is the recruit, there’s at least one or two more scum out there.

As far as Cookies goes… now that you mention it, she’s been pretty much under my radar for most of the game. Which, of course, worries me at this point, but I’m not really sure what to think about that. Do you have a case, or is it just a gut feeling?

The only other person that’s really flown under my radar is Rachm Qoch, and I’m loathe to jump on that wagon at this point too, because I don’t know what tirial’s motivations are, and I haven’t had time yet to go back and look up the posts she’s referencing.

At this point, other than tirial, I can only make a case (and a rather flimsy one at that) against nesta, which I’ve already mostly outlined.

2060

I’m here everyone. I was home ill yesterday, which extended my time away from work. I find myself burried both in keeping up with this game and in keeping up with my work-related responsibilities. Work, of course, has my priority. I’ve already subbed out of Game 4, but hesitate to do so here because the game is so far advanced. I would like the opportunity to catch up on the game over the next couple of nights and through the weekend, but that means I will probably be quiet for another day or so.

People have said that they don’t “have a read” on me, but I find that very hard to believe.

Prior to Thursday of last week, I have been very participatory. Nothing I’ve said has made an impression one way or another?