Yeah, I know. That’s why I had “(of current players)” in there. 
Okay, you know what… I’ve got a bad feeling here, so I’ve just gone over all of Kyrie’s day two posts:
Post 628 - A quip against dnooman.
Post 701 - The potential BM crumb. Also a response to dnooman.
Post 705 - Responds to Tirial about his anti-FOS of me.
Post 772 - Potential dnooman/Projammer crumb. Also mentions fluiddruid here, but not in a crumby way.
Post 783 - Another dnooman quip.
Post 813 - Here is the potential fluiddruid crumb.
Post 819 - Yet another dnooman post.
Post 823 - A quick response to dnooman.
Post 824 - Another quip on dnooman.
Do you see the pattern that we’ve been missing? How many of these posts are riding dnooman’s case for being “suicidal”? Only two posts don’t have at least part to do with **dnooman **: one in response to the anti-FOS of me, and the other is the vote for fluiddruid.
Here’s what strikes me as odd. Let’s say Kyrie did investigate fluiddruid. Why did it take him to post 813 to leave any kind of crumb for it? Surely, especialy since they seemed to be on opposite sides on Monday, and fluiddruid had already drawn some level of suspicion, he could have made at least a weak case to FOS **fluiddruid ** earlier in the day.
Why did he keep saying he was convinced **dnooman ** was town, but yet has so much to argue with him about. It seems to me like Kyrie was resisting voting against dnooman, not because of gut, but because he knew something. Unless I KNEW someone was innocent, why would I use the word “suicidal” to describe someone’s actions? If I didn’t know, I’d have said “scummy” and promply pointed and FOS and/or vote that way.
Most interesting of all, in laying out the case to vote for fluiddruid, his main point is Post 493. Interestingly enough, he linked the same post in 772 when berating dnooman for his **percypercy ** vote. What’s worse is, he 772, he’s calling dnooman on being a hypocrite, which is a monster scum tell IMO, but doesn’t FOS him, yet he uses the same evidence as a lynch vote against fluiddruid merely because that was the post that “turned momentum away from Lightnin’”.
IOW, for me to believe that the crumb is fluiddruid, that would have meant that Kyrie was convinced Lightnin’ was scum, and yet, he follows suit by attempting to turn votes away from dnoonman/Projammer.
It looks to me like he KNEW dnooman was town, and was trying his darndest to stop the bandwagon. However, because he wasn’t sold on Projammer, he couldn’t afford to be the tie breaking vote as the detective, and look REALLY fishy if he turned up town and get stuck probably role-claiming the next day which would have gotten him recruited and/or killed.
Thus, I think Kyrie didn’t want to vote where there wasn’t already another vote (fearing it would look like a breadcrumb, when it wasn’t, for future days), and yet he still wanted to try to draw votes away from dnooman, while still voting for a likely scum. That is, I think he really thought that fluiddruid was scum, but KNEW that dnooman was town.
Here’s the point that was missing from the discussiong all day… the TIMING. That is, what strikes me as odd about my “Anti-FOS” from Kyrie is that it’s rather contrived and almost 400 posts after the one that was quoted, PLUS it was early in the day; so I can kind of see that being a breadcrumb (though, I’m still not sold on it, as much as I’d like it to be true). People keep saying “look, he voted for fluiddruid.” Yes, he did, but not even 30 posts before the day end post (which was late because Gadarene was out of town). So while he was saying over and over “I feel like we’re choosing between two townies”, yet he waits until the last part to get out the crumb? The day started in post 583 and ended at post 841. He waited until post 813 to get anything about a fluiddruid out there and only AFTER someone else had voted for her?
So let’s assume he investigated fluiddruid and it came up scum. Why did he wait until the day was 90% over before dropping ANY hints at all that he’d investigated her? He was pursuing her someone on day one, he could have easily carried that over and it wouldn’t have looked any different. What if SnakesCatLady hadn’t voted for fluiddruid? Would he still have put his vote there, making the whole “loaf” mistake that CaerieD did in the last game? If SCL hadn’t voted for fluiddruid, how would he have gotten that crumb across with so little time left? Are you seeing the same contradictions I am?
All of that said, I’m convinced now that there’s NO WAY that fluiddruid is the breadcrumb. STILL, that doesn’t mean I’m not still very suspicious. However, since that was the most compelling evidence in favor of lynching her, and without it the whole escaping the gallows and no-lynch vote from **Projammer ** bumps him ahead of her. Thus…
unvote fluiddruid, vote Projammer.
And my updated Suspicometer in decending order:
Projammer
Lightnin’
fluiddruid
CaerieD
SnakesCatLady
Agh… I really didn’t do a very good job organizing my thoughts there, did I? I hope it still makes sense.
Some, but why try to turn votes away from dnooman AND projammer? If dnooman was the crumb, why no specific references? He’s argued with him, but I still don’t see any general references in Kyrie’s posts to the list as a whole regarding dnooman specifically.
Also his vote for fluidruid was a little late to derail any votes from the dnooman/projammer bandwagon.
And there’s a flaw in your argument - P819 does not say he thinks dnooman is innocent:
It says he can’t tell the difference. If he had investigated someone you’d think he could.
Fluiddruid your posts I will admit, did make me doubt the case against you (admittedly when I look at the facts I am still fairly sure, but you are coming across more as a townie). I’ve been through the second day over and over again -and the facts seem fairly solid. So I read back through the thread on the first day to see if I could find any more supporting evidence.
Kyrie does mention limited experience with the game.
P331 “I don’t really have much experience with this game,”
P402 “Maybe it’s because I’m a noob,”
so may not have been playing as cleverly as you expect. However he would know enough to leave a breadcrumb if he had seen the first or second game - which he had.
The other thing that is interesting is his reaction when challeneged on a vote he wasn’t sure of: P373 "Yes, I voted for NAF. I was the first to do so, and I didn’t try to persuade anyone or make any further case against NAF after the message containing and explaining my vote. "
“No, not laying groundwork, sorry.”
Considering the way he retracted when challenged on a vote he was unsure of, his vote against you seems a lot more certain. I don’t trust my own judgement much after percypercy, so I will trust his.
I’m terribly reluctant to do this, since I think with my luck in this game it’ll be taken as some kind of bizarre reverse psychology ploy, but Blaster Master’s post has me viewing the breadcrumb situation differently. I’d really been thinking that the breadcrumb was either him or Projammer, not really considering dnooman due to the arguing between him and Kyrie.
If nothing else, I suppose this is better than completely throwing my vote away to make a statement. I’m going to unvote SnakesCatLady and vote Projammer.
Yes. I thought I predicted that you would bail out fluiddruid in 1052.
And why was I reluctant to switch votes? Oh yes, because I thought Projammer might be the breadcrumb. See the consistent thought process here?
Actually I see you waiting until Projammer is out of town and won’t be able to switch his vote or respond - as he has already said.
Unavoidable absences from the game suck, and can be convenient cover, and can be used as an opportunity for the opportunistic to wreak havoc during an absence.
But…
Odds are that all of us have an equal chance of being negatively impacted by them, whether they’re valid or lies.
This very morning you harass me about not voting for Projammer if I think fluiddruid is town. I explain my reasoning. When someone convinces me that my reasoning may be wrong, I vote for Projammer. Now, you’re harassing me for voting for Projammer.
It seems to me that you’re actively looking for excuses to point a finger at me. Blaster Master at least has some valid and well-explained reasons for questioning me. I don’t agree with them, obviously, but they make sense. You’re just jumping on everything, whether it makes sense or not.
Nope. I think fluiddruid is scum, and I predicted you would jump across to projammer, without answering Kyrie’s accusations against fluiddruid, largely because you tend to post without reading the thread. I also think you’ve been looking for any excuse to get fluiddruid off.
My FOS on you remains from Day One and I’ve stated the reasons repeatedly.
Posting disagreements with or challenging someone who raises old arguments (without answering the counterpoints) is the best way to get answers. If you think it is harrassment - which is banned on this board - then I would suggest you calm down.
And I’m not pointing the finger at you - its staying clearly pointed at fluiddruid for now.
/Game Off/ tirial, I meant “harass” entirely within the context of the game and the appropriate accusations expected within it. I certainly didn’t mean it in a bad way. I’m sorry for the misunderstanding. 
/Game On/
</ game>Sorry I took it the wrong way. Its about 1 in the morning here, so logical reasoning’s gone out the window in place of caffiene. Just don’t expect me to go easy on you No hard feelings?
<game>
If Projammer turns out to be town (and I’ve never seen all of the suspicion everyone else apparently sees), then you’re going to look VERY VERY bad, in my opinion.
Like I said earlier to you…if you’re really so reluctant, why not just choose to vote for someone else you’re suspicious of but that doesn’t have a whole lot of votes going for them? It’s just that easy.
But if you’re really iffy about it, I’d think you wouldn’t mind doing this if the fear is real of possibly lynching a nonscummy player. The fact that you aren’t is what keeps tripping my meter.
And again, I must say that the scum must be doing a very good job of disagreeing with each other in here and even blantantly accusing each other of being mafia, because I’m still highly suspicious of tirial, yet am finding myself agreeing with her posts pointing out your shady behavior.
You’re right; however, that’s well after the bandwagons had been established (and, in fact, after he had changed his vote), and the vote count (if my math is correct) at the time of that post was 6 for dnooman and 5 for Projammer.
Here’s how I’m looking at that (which I’m pretty sure I failed to communicate). Let’s assume for a moment that he had investigated dnooman and knew he was town, then he’s obviously not going to vote for dnooman. But, if he votes for the other bandwagon and ties it up, and especially would have been the clinching vote (after CaerieD’s unvote a few posts later), a lot of suspicion would have befallen him if Projammer were to turn out town.
Thus, my thought is that he wanted to avoid suspicion so he could at least avoid being lynched, thus he attempted in vain to derail the dnooman wagon and when that fell short, he simply went with a fairly safe, unsuspicious vote. The problem was, I think that his suspicion just as unlucky as the mafia’s hit on him was lucky.
My point is, why wait to breadcrumb until it’s too late to turn votes that way. Shouldn’t he have mentioned something from day one, even if it was a bit shaky, to try to FOS fluiddruid earlier? As I said before, the very same post he used to condemn fluiddruid, he used earlier, in reference to dnooman, without even attempting (as far as I can tell) to cast and suspicion on fluiddruid.
I just can’t see the detective waiting until the eleventh hour to crumb when he knew someone else was definitely scum. It just seems more like a CYOA, dnooman is a lost cause vote than that he had really thought that all along.
/Game Off/ None at all. I’ll be happy to lay into you later on without a hint of malice. 
/Game On/
Idle Thoughts, yeah, I will. And if fluiddruid gets lynched and turns out to be Mafia I’ll look bad. I’d have looked bad even if I hadn’t switched my vote, though. Frankly, at this point I feel like I’ve done so much to trip up people’s scumdar that I’m just going to have to muddle through until my eventual lynching, when everyone sees they had a very inept townie on their hands rather than a…well, very inept Mafiosa. My only hope is that some of my analysis turns out to have been correct, even if my actual play has sucked, and once I’m gone somebody can use it.
But why, exactly, would we assume that?
As far as I can tell (and I’ll be looking at it afterwards), he didn’t mention dnooman in any of his first day posts. And he voted for Omi no Kami.
And dnooman didn’t come into the equation until day two. Wouldn’t it make sense for him to investigate:
- Someone who had raised his suspicion
- Someone who had generated common suspicion
Why would he investigate someone with whom he had had no interaction at all?
Updated Vote Count
8 – Projammer (Lightnin’, Millit the Frail, Hal Briston, Lemur866, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, fluiddruid, Blaster Master, CaerieD)
6 – fluiddruid (tirial, SnakesCatLady, Idle Thoughts, Rachm Qoch, nesta, DiggitCamara)
1 – Lightnin’ (Projammer)
Forty-five minutes left.
First of all, I meant “assume” as in, assume for the sake of argument that he did investigate dnooman; given that, here’s how I think he would have acted. Regardless of whether he investigated fluiddruid and she came up scum or if he investigated dnooman and he came up town, I wouldn’t have played it how he did. However, my point was that the way he played is closer to how I would’ve imagined he’d played given that he’d investigated dnooman rather than if he’d investigated fluiddruid.
Further, while I agree that we can pretty much decide an investigation might have happened for one of those two reasons, reason 2 is knowable, but reason 1 is not. It’s entirely possible that he had suspected dnooman and simply did not voice it because he didn’t have sufficient evidence. I’ve learned, coincidentally partially from strumhauke’s investigation of dnooman in WW1, that it makes more sense to investigate based on weaker evidence and hunches than on strong evidence because the stronger evidence (like voting patterns, cliques, goofs/contradictions) is already sufficiently damning on its own. Why waste an investigation on a target that is likely going to get himself/herself lynched anyway? A good detective is looking for leads, not confirmation.
As I said, here’s a condensed version of what strikes me odd and really makes me think it wasn’t a fluiddruid crumb. 1) No crumb until the day was 90% over 2) crumb only AFTER another individual had voted 2b) How would he have crumbed if SCL hadn’t voted for fluiddruid first? 3) A seeming obsession with dnooman, by which a HUGE majority involved him 4) Not even FOSing dnooman for after calling him a hypocrite (biggest scum tell there is IMO) yet voting for fluiddruid for a disagreement over strategy (just as likely to get townies as scum with that, IMO) 5) His inability to derail the dnooman and/or Projammer wagon without putting the crosshairs straight on himself for a lynch and consequent role-claim the next day.
Anyway, that all said, and I repeat myself, I’m still highly suspicious of fluiddruid, and it will be largely a toss up between her and Lightnin’ for me tomorrow depending on how the lynch and the night go.