Ok guys, sorry this took so long but it took me several hours to put together.
- Now that it is confirmed projammer was town, how does that change your suspicious list?
It changes it a great deal. I think in many ways I was targeting the wrong people for the wrong reasons. I’m starting to get a handle on townie behavior more than I think I understood at the beginning of the game.
One of the things that I see is that wavering has been seen as a sign of weakness, but in the end it’s townies who are doing most of the wavering! I saw Projammer’s lack of decisive votes as a sign that he was trying to avoid a voting record. Clearly, that wasn’t the case. Now, is it possible that scum can hide in such a fashion? Sure. Do I think it’s a definite tell? Not anymore. This is why I think that people like Omi no Kami are moving downward on my suspicion list. More below.
- When you were on the hook you didn’t roleclaim - about the closest you got was saying you were on the town’s side? Any reason? Any claim?
I think that in nearly every way, it is bad for a townie to roleclaim. As such I’m not roleclaiming now, and will not, even to save my neck.
A doctor or Night Watchman who role claims becomes essentially worthless - sure, the Doctor can protect himself for the rest of the game, but they become essentially the same pattern as a scum who has role claimed Doctor falsely. The Night Watchman, if not lying, becomes target 1 for Mafia. They become less useful and we have seen a lot of end-of-the-day swing votes. I thought I was dead yesterday; I wasn’t. Once the Mafia knows who the Doctor or, to a lesser extent, the Night Watchman is, they have a HUGE advantage to the point where the power essentially comes null. I guess maybe I could see it late in the game but I think, at this point, it’s counterproductive.
A doctor, or presumably Night Watchman, claim just tends to come up badly for Town, as it is ultimately unverifiable (as is a Night Watchman claim), does little to convince people not to lynch (if anything I would say it would be likely to increase the odds) and actively hurts the role if you manage to stay in-game.
Do-Gooder claims are the least useful as, if true, they completely nullify the power of the role. That’s why I found Projammer so suspicious at the time, but I think in his case he just didn’t think about it the same way. Essentially, a Do-Gooder should never, ever, ever role claim. Far better to claim Citizen and turn up Do-Gooder on a lynch and have that chance of avoiding the lynch. At this point the Do-Gooder should NEVER claim (though others could falsely claim and have a reason to) because, if the remaining Do-Gooder is identified, this means an unblockable recruit. This is very very bad for Town.
Now of course that assumes that the recruit hasn’t been used. I don’t think it has. Why? The Mafia have no reason to recruit so early. As has been stated, there are no confirmed and trusted townies, and the Do-Gooder is still in play. It makes the most sense for the Mafia to hold the recruitment as long as possible until they have no choice but to use it to survive.
Now for Masons. Masons know each other. I think based on the size of the game we are looking at 3 Masons. I have some suspicions as to who they are but this is one area where I think it hurts Town to speculate. Masons should role claim as late as possible in the game. Frankly, even to save one Mason of three at this point it would not be worth it, as other people would have to role claim to verify for it to be useful. The only time, as I see it, to role claim as a Mason is if you are the second-to-last mason and you are going to get lynched pretty surely.
That takes care of the roles in the game right now.
Skipping ahead:
4) Who do you believe was the Detective’s crumb if not you?
All of my thoughts on this have been pretty well hashed out. I’m not sure. Dnooman? Blaster Master? It’s not at all clear. As I’ve argued, though, I don’t think I made sense as the breadcrumb; in any case, a lot less sense than any other potential breadcrumbs. Not sure what else I can comment on this topic that I haven’t already.
- Since there are a number of other serious candidates for scum floating around, what is your take on them?
- Top of my scum list are you and Lightnin’. Out of these two, who do you think I should vote for and why?
I’m going to take these two together. Bear with me a moment.
Frankly I’m not convinced that Lightnin is scum. Frankly there is more evidence against me than Lightnin and there’s not much between them. I sympathize with the guy since he’s been basically a target from the beginning with very little to go on. Frankly, I would be less suspicious of the person who votes for me versus the one who votes for Lightnin, because at least there is a legitimate hypothesis (while one, of course, I argue against) that I’m the detective breadcrumb. I really don’t see that with Lightnin.
At the beginning of my research I thought it might be best for Town to off me. Being so high on the “suspicious” lists, all my arguments and thoughts will be seen in that light. Other candidates in that field would be Lightnin or CaerieD. I don’t know if that’s really a good strategy in the long term but I’d like to be useful for the team. I really hate the idea of staying in the game and having every one of my strategies assumed as misleading – as it really puts me in a position of difficulty to contribute at all.
But on the other hand I think that lynching townies to learn something is a bad plan. We should be lynching Mafia so I can’t really throw my support on this entirely.
And, frankly, if you’ll read my analysis below, I think we need to turn the game in a new direction.
In the end I think we need to get back to basics. We have not been successful in our recent succession of lynchings and basically the candidate from the night before who ended up not getting lynched ends up being the new target (of two). Only a few people are being held to task. This is very bad for Town.
Now, Snakecatlady is trying to crucify me based on my (admittedly unfortunate) posting history. But, let’s analyze exactly what happened.
------------VOTING ANALYSIS---------------
4/21 8:30 am
4 – Lightnin’ (NAF1138, Idle Thoughts, dnooman, Projammer)
2 – NAF1138 (Hal Briston, Lightnin’)
2 – Omi No Kami (Rachm Qoch, Kyrie Eleison)
1 – Idle Thoughts (Blaster Master)
1 – percypercy (DiggitCamara)
1 – CaerieD (Lemur866)
1 – Kyrie Eleison (Omi No Kami)
1 – DiggitCamara (percypercy)
1 – nesta (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)
4/22 1pm
3 – Lightnin’ (Idle Thoughts, dnooman, Projammer)
3 – Omi No Kami (Rachm Qoch, Kyrie Eleison, CaerieD)
3 – Projammer (nesta, NAF1138, percypercy)
2 – NAF1138 (Hal Briston, Lightnin’)
2 – percypercy (DiggitCamara, tirial)
1 – Idle Thoughts (Blaster Master)
1 – CaerieD (Lemur866)
1 – Kyrie Eleison (Omi No Kami)
1 – nesta (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)
4/23 FINAL VOTE COUNT
6 – percypercy (DiggitCamara, tirial, fluiddruid, dnooman, Blaster Master, CaerieD)
3 – Projammer (nesta, NAF1138, percypercy)
2 – Lightnin’ (Projammer, Millit the Frail)
2 – Omi No Kami (Rachm Qoch, Kyrie Eleison)
1 – NAF1138 (Lightnin’)
1 – ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (Hal Briston)
1 – Millit the Frail (Idle Thoughts)
1 – DiggitCamara (SnakesCatLady)
1 – CaerieD (Lemur866)
1 – nesta (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)
Okay. So, essentially, we have a serious three way between the following:
- percypercy (confirmed town)
- Projammer (confirmed town)
- Lightnin’ (status unknown)
- and, charitably, in a distant 4th, Omi no Kami (with one confirmed town vote, one unknown)
People with votes for confirmed town during these counts (final votes vs not final are designated):
- Hal Briston (not final) voted for NAF
- Omi no Kami (not final) voted for Kyrie Eleison
- Lightnin (final) voted for NAF
- nesta (final) voted for Projammer
- NAF [CONFIRMED TOWN] (final) voted for Projammer
- percypercy [CONFIRMED TOWN] (final) voted for Projammer
- tirial (final) voted for percypercy
- fluiddruid (final) voted for percypercy
- dnooman [CONFIRMED TOWN] (final) voted for percypercy
- Blaster Master (final) voted for percypercy
- CaerieD (final) voted for percypercy
- DiggitCamera (final) voted for percypercy
Ultimately, the two most likely to be lynched were Percypercy (town) and Projammer (town).
There were 9 people who had a final vote between these two candidates.
Of those that participated in this two-way vote, 33% (3) are already confirmed town.
The remainder are: myself, tirial, Blaster Master, CaerieD, nesta, and DiggitCamera.
For Day Two:
4/26 8am
5 – Projammer (SnakesCatLady, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, CaerieD)
1 – Lightnin’ (Projammer)
1 – dnooman (Lightnin’)
1 – CaerieD (Blaster Master)
4/26 11am
5 – Projammer (SnakesCatLady, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, CaerieD)
2 – dnooman (Lightnin’, DiggitCamara)
1 – Lightnin’ (Projammer)
1 – CaerieD (Blaster Master)
1 – Kyrie Eleison (fluiddruid)
1 – SnakesCatLady (Lemur866)
4/27 10:30am
5 – Projammer (SnakesCatLady, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, Rachm Qoch)
5 – dnooman (Lightnin’, DiggitCamara, CaerieD, Hal Briston, Idle Thoughts)
1 – ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (Projammer)
1 – CaerieD (Blaster Master)
1 – Kyrie Eleison (fluiddruid)
1 – SnakesCatLady (Lemur866)
4/27 1:30pm
7 – Projammer (SnakesCatLady, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, Rachm Qoch, dnooman, tirial)
6 – dnooman (Lightnin’, DiggitCamara, CaerieD, Hal Briston, Idle Thoughts, fluiddruid)
1 – ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (Projammer)
1 – CaerieD (Blaster Master)
1 – SnakesCatLady (Lemur866)
Final Vote Count
5 – Projammer (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, Rachm Qoch, dnooman)
5 – dnooman (Lightnin’, DiggitCamara, Hal Briston, Idle Thoughts, fluiddruid)
2 – fluiddruid (SnakesCatLady, Kyrie Eleison)
2 – No Lynch (Projammer, CaerieD)
1 – CaerieD (Blaster Master)
1 – SnakesCatLady (Lemur866)
So, the probable candidates were:
- Projammer (confirmed town)
- dnooman (confirmed town)
- and to be charitable, let’s say myself (1 confirmed town vote)
Of the votes placed that day, the following voted for confirmed townies:
- Snakecatlady (not final) voted for Projammer
- Cometothedarksidewehavecookies (final) voted for Projammer
- nesta (final) voted for Projammer
- Millit the Frail (final) voted for Projammer
- CaerieD (not final) voted for Projammer
- Lightnin (final) voted for dnooman
- DiggitCamara (final) voted for dnooman
- fluiddruid (not final) voted for Kyrie Eleison
- fluiddruid (final) voted for dnooman
- dnooman [CONFIRMED TOWN] voted for Projammer
- Millit the Frail (final) voted for Projammer
- Rachm Qoch (final) voted for Projammer
In addition, CaerieD and Projammer [confirmed town] voted No Lynch.
Day Three
5/3 10:45AM
5 – fluiddruid (tirial, SnakesCatLady, Idle Thoughts, Rachm Qoch, nesta)
3 – Projammer (Lightnin’, Millit the Frail, Hal Briston)
1 – SnakesCatLady (CaerieD)
5/4 12:30 PM
Updated Vote Count
7 – fluiddruid (tirial, SnakesCatLady, Idle Thoughts, Rachm Qoch, nesta, DiggitCamara, Blaster Master)
5 – Projammer (Lightnin’, Millit the Frail, Hal Briston, Lemur866, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)
1 – SnakesCatLady (CaerieD)
1 – Lightnin’ (Projammer)
5/4 9:45 PM
Final Vote Count
8 – Projammer (Lightnin’, Millit the Frail, Hal Briston, Lemur866, ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, fluiddruid, Blaster Master, CaerieD)
6 – fluiddruid (tirial, SnakesCatLady, Idle Thoughts, Rachm Qoch, nesta, DiggitCamara)
1 – Lightnin’ (Projammer)
So, the probable candidates were:
- Projammer (confirmed town)
- Fluiddruid (unknown)
Of the votes placed that day, the following voted for confirmed townies:
- Lightnin’ (final) voted for Projammer
- Millit the Frail (final) voted for Projammer
- Hal Briston (final) voted for Projammer
- Lemur866 (final) voted for Projammer
- Cometothedarksidewehavecookies (final) voted for Projammer
- Blaster Master (final) voted for Projammer
- CaerieD (final) voted for Projammer
------------ END VOTING ANALYSIS--------------
So, what does all of this data mean?
Basically, it means that of the four days so far, each has essentially come down to two major people. The biggest third candidate gained TWO votes in particular day. And, of those third candidates, only one - Omi no Kami - has not later become a serious lynching contendee. The other two are myself and Lightnin.
The days go as follows:
Day One: Projammer vs Percypercy (with Lightnin in 3rd)
Day Two: Projammer vs Dnooman
Day Three: Projammer vs Fluiddruid
Day Four (so far): Lightnin vs Fluiddruid
Thus, there have been only five serious lynching candidates, all of whom have had maintained interest since very early in the game. Of these, three (Dnooman, Percypercy, and Projammer) were lynched. All were town. The remaining two, Lightnin and myself, are the contenders for today.
This is an extremely disturbing pattern for Town and needs to be harshly reconsidered today.
The vast majority of players still in the game have never been lynching candidates. Why is this?
Well, let’s analyze each day a little further.
Day One: Projammer vs Percypercy (with Lightnin in 3rd) [TOWN VS TOWN, 3rd person unknown]
Day Two: Projammer vs Dnooman [TOWN VS TOWN]
Day Three: Projammer vs Fluiddruid
Day Four (so far): Lightnin vs Fluiddruid
I have been held to task for my votes in the first two days. Yet, how much sense does this make? Why would the Mafia care to manipulate a voting match that came down to town vs town?
-
I have been suspected for starting the Percypercy “bandwagon”. Even if I accept that to be true, that assumes that I have saved the second candidate: Projammer, also confirmed town.
-
I have been suspected for my vote on Day Two. Day Two was tied. Either way, we lost a townie.
-
In Day Three, I voted for Projammer (confirmed town) in a race in which I was the only other realistic candidate. As I’ve argued, this is the only logical vote regardless of whether I’m Town or Mafia: Townies know 100% that they themselves are Town, so they should vote the other candidate, and Mafia of course should vote Town to save themselves.
So what does this all sum up to? The voting record against me is meaningless when examined. It makes no sense for me to put myself on the line for a lynch in order to get one townie lynched over another.
As I’ve been arguing for some time, what we’ve seen recently is only a pattern of townies lynching townies. The Mafia has no reason to manipulate the vote significantly in either Day One or Two at all, since both serious candidates are confirmed town.
So, this changes my suspicious list significantly. Rather than looking at who voted for townies in Day One and Day Two - a proven red herring - it makes more sense to look at who didn’t vote in the top two at all when it comes to the final tally.
So let’s go down the player list:
fluiddruid
CaerieD
Cookies
Hal B
nesta
SCLady
Lightnin
Lemur
Tirial
Blaster
Millit
Rachm
Diggit
Omi no Kami
Idle Thoughts
Looking again at the final Day One vote count:
DAY ONE FINAL
6 – percypercy (DiggitCamara, tirial, fluiddruid, dnooman, Blaster Master, CaerieD)
3 – Projammer (nesta, NAF1138, percypercy)
2 – Lightnin’ (Projammer, Millit the Frail)
2 – Omi No Kami (Rachm Qoch, Kyrie Eleison)
1 – NAF1138 (Lightnin’)
1 – ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (Hal Briston)
1 – Millit the Frail (Idle Thoughts)
1 – DiggitCamara (SnakesCatLady)
1 – CaerieD (Lemur866)
1 – nesta (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)
DAY TWO FINAL
5 – Projammer (ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies, nesta, Millit the Frail, Rachm Qoch, dnooman)
5 – dnooman (Lightnin’, DiggitCamara, Hal Briston, Idle Thoughts, fluiddruid)
2 – fluiddruid (SnakesCatLady, Kyrie Eleison)
2 – No Lynch (Projammer, CaerieD)
1 – CaerieD (Blaster Master)
1 – SnakesCatLady (Lemur866)
Leaping to the bottom of the suspicious list would be DiggitCamara and nesta, who had two decisive townie votes.
I am also not inclined to suspect tirial (did vote conclusively in Day Three for me, and has been a big contributor in debate) and Blaster Master (large debate contributor).
Jumping to the top of my personal suspicious lists are:
-
Snakescatlady. Full disclosure, as you’ll recall she voted for me in Day Two right before the whole Kyrie Eleison / breadcrumb debate. She also failed to cast a meaningful vote in Day One. She is also voting for me, in her own words, based on me voting for townies in the first few days. This is either extremely illogical or suspicious. Her only conclusive vote so far has been to vote for me in Day Three - after she voted for me in Day Two, this would have been hard to avoid. Please remember this if I die.
-
Omi no Kami has so far neglected to cast a final vote EVER. I am baffled as to why this has been largely overlooked.
-
Lemur866 failed to cast a meaningful vote either day and frankly has been hanging back in debate.
Where do I stand on Lightnin after all this? Well, frankly, yes, I’d be curious to see how this shakes out. My biggest problem is that by killing Lightnin or myself we are continuing the same trainwreck we have been following from Day One. As such, what we learn is limited.
Based on all of the above I suggest a third candidate.
Vote Snakecatlady.
FOS Omi no Kami.
FOS Lemur866.