Didn’t think so. Still sorry, Lightnin’
*It is dawn. You are at the Village Green. The townspeople are here.
> x village green
You see nothing special.
> x dawn
It is rosy-fingered. Very pretty if you’re into that sort of thing.
> x townspeople
They are bleary and suspicious.
> x scum
Nice try.
> count townspeople
They are all present and accounted for.
> damn it to hell
I do not understand where you would like to damn it.
> cry
Feel better?*
Dusk falls at 12:15 a.m. my time on Monday night/Tuesday morning. Play nice.
Wow.
So, wait… is this a third night in a row without a kill? Damn, I have no idea what to make of that. We’ve now had two definite blocks, but I’m unsure what that means. I’m hard pressed to believe we’d get three blocks in a row unless either our NWM is extra lucky, or our doctor is awesome. Or maybe they hadn’t recruited yet, and with the other do-gooder dead they took advantage of it last night? Maybe, extending on what Idle and tirial were talking about, they targetted someone other than the doctor or NWM, got blocked by a good guessing doctor or lucky NWM, recruited him the second night, and again either the doctor or NWM blocked. Now I’m thoroughly confused…
One thing I did think about though, now that both do-gooders are dead and we know who they are, I don’t think it’s likely that either of them was a recruit attempt because they both had a high level of suspicion. So… my thought is, if the recruitment has taken place, we can pretty much bet it was successful, and if it hasn’t taken place, it’s now guaranteed to be successful.
Gadarene, when you get a chance, can you post an updated player list? Thanks.
Updated player list:
Alive:
- CaerieD
- ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
- Hal Briston
- nesta
- SnakesCatLady
- Lemur866
- tirial
- Blaster Master
- Millit the Frail
- Rachm Qoch
- DiggitCamara
- Omi No Kami
- Idle Thoughts
Dead:
- percypercy – citizen (lynched, Day One)
- NAF1138 – citizen (murdered, Night One)
- dnooman – citizen (lynched, Day Two)
- Kyrie Eleison – detective (murdered, Night Two)
- Projammer – do-gooder (lynched, Day Three)
- fluiddruid – mafia (lynched, Day Four)
- Lightnin’ – do-gooder (lynched, Day Five)
Thirteen players left; seven votes needed to lynch.
Thanks Gad.
Okay, I’m a little unsure where to go from here. I am a little bit bothered by DiggitCamara’s reaction to **Lightnin’**s lynch; however, his deliberately pointing out that he was quite sure he was scum doesn’t look scummy. That is, I’d more expect scum to feign apology… hmm.
I was also looking at the post counts, not to FOS people with low post counts, but wondering why there’s still a few people I don’t have much of a read on either way. dnooman has been dead since day two and has 58 posts, NAF1138 has been dead since the first night, and has 56 posts, yet **Hal Briston ** and nesta both have 56 and **Rachm Qoch ** has only 42. Interestingly enough, these three are among the ones I have the least read on either pro-town or anti-town. I’m even more confused with the way Hal and nesta were attacking eachother yesterday, especially because I’m hard pressed to draw up enough evidence with few posts. I won’t FOS any of them, simply because I just don’t know, but at the same time, I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if one or more of them was scum.
I’m also concerned about the Idle Thoughts and **tirial ** deal late yesterday. It seemed a little contrived, but I think it’s now a very real possibility that, if they both started town, that one of them was recruited in the last few nights. I’m also not saying we should indiscriminantly lynch one of them, because I think we lose more by lynching the wrong one of the two than we gain by lynching the right one. That is to say, I don’t think pursuing either of them is worth it at this point.
My top suspects are still the same; however, my suspicion in them is reduced by a non-insiginicant margin. I’m hopeful someone else can offer at bit of helpful incite as far as what **Lightnin’**s proven innocence means as far as CaerieD and SCL as the obvious top two targets today. I think his innocence relieves a lot of evidence built against CaerieD about the vote swings on day one; that is, it’s looking more like the vote swing was due to whimsical townies, and not a rush to save scum… unless there’s another scum that was somehow threatened that we missed. OTOH, I don’t see any connection between Lightnin’ and SCL, so I don’t think that affects my suspicion of her, but at the same time, the strongest evidence against her is the highly specious fluiddruid defense post and the case built and pushed by a potential recruit in Idle Thoughts.
No kill?
Oh great, either the watchman or doc got lucky - which I can believe two nights in a row, but not three - or with no dogooders left in the game the mafia recruited last night. Personally I suspect the third, so Idle Thoughts, my apologies for yesterday, but unfortunately with a no kill last night, the town still can’t trust anyone.
(Of course they could just be enjoying watching us kill each other without them having to do any work.)
I’m confused.
I would be hollering “Praise Jesus” if it weren’t for the sinking feeling in my stomach that this 3rd peaceful night brings closer the possibility that one of our own is now a traitorous scum.
I’m going to have to come out swinging today. Even though fluiddruid scummily (sp?) used a similar approach, I’m hereby asserting that I am pro-town, but I am not divulging the flavor of my creamy center.
My fellow townsfolk need to look long and hard at the three other individuals with Lightnin’s Do-gooder blood on their hands besides me: Diggit, Millit, and nesta. By doing so, you would at least come extremely close to a 1 in 3 chance of targeting a scum to lynch, if not better.
Conversely, I also caution my fellow townsfolk to consider the 4 individuals who voted alone at the close of yesterday: Hal Briston, Omi No Kami, tirial, and Rachm Qoch. These (imho) odd votes may indicate the scum sitting back on their heels while the town split their votes on yet more town-on-town violence.
I like the 1 in 3 odds better, personally, but ymmv.
What the hell? Another no-kill? I think it’s pretty safe to assume that a recruitment has happened now. At least the three nights free of Mafia killing has given us a bit of a chance to catch up.
Did the Mafia try to kill the Doctor two nights in a row, and then recruit him/her last night? Or did they know who he/she was and recruit night before last, and the night watchmen got lucky? Or maybe the Mafia went a completely different direction and recruited someone not as obvious?
Hell, I’m not sure it matters. All I know at this point is even those I’ve figured were town can’t be trusted. I guess we all need to be looking very closely at everyone, even if they were mostly trusted before.
I can’t remember if this was covered or not, but please don’t make me skim through the whole thread…
If someone is converted and then dies, are they revealed as a “converted town scum”, or just “scum”?
Make that a 1 in 4 chance. The blood is on your hands as much as ours.
Frankly, I’m not convinced that scum voted for Lightnin’. They knew he wasn’t Mafia, so if a bunch of townies jumped on him they might have just sat back and let us kill one of our own. They would want to stay far away from a townie lynching if possible. That is, unless there was another scum on the chopping block.
Nope. 1 in 3. That’s the whole point of my post. It is up to each of you to decide whether or not you buy what I’m selling, but 1 in 3 is what I have on the table. The good news is, the town gets the merchandise for free if I die. 
Frankly, I’m starting to wonder if yesterday we weren’t choosing between three townies to lynch. I still have my suspicions about SCL–and anyone could be turned at this point, especially since our Do-Gooders are gone–but there were four people who wanted nothing to do with a single one of those bandwagons, which makes me awfully suspicious. I get the feeling this is a case of the scum sitting back and letting us kill our own.
Right now, I’m most suspicious of Hal Briston, Omni no Kami, tirial and Rachm Qoch for giving the throwaway votes. Especially tirial–she’s been hounding me for days and suddenly changes her tune when she has the chance to lynch me? I hadn’t noticed any drastic change in her opinion until it came time to vote.
The former.
Well, I’ve had the following post ready to go for about 18 hours now, so I’ll be happy to invite a long, hard look at one of your mentioned targets:
Except for being the tiebreaking vote that sends a mafia member swinging, is there any such thing? Just about every single other action can either be taken at face value, or be looked at as a bluff.
Sorry, my best defense here is a good offense. I’m positive that I’m town and I’m quite certain that you’re scum. The only way to prove the former is to prove the latter.
Certainly – study and analysis of other people’s posts is the lifeblood of this game. It’s your spectacular timing that I find so damning. As I said earlier, it’s really a brilliant scum play. Unfortunately for you, the only thing you found that could have been thought to be of any value whatsoever was voting record. With our loss of Lightnin’ yesterday, people might be more hesitant to convict on that basis.
Oh, and speaking of our dearly departed Lightnin’, let’s take a look back at my “low-post-count investigation” results post (Post #1503). When we reread it now, it look like I was wrong about it not being a good way to find scum. I stated in there that you were probably “Not Scum”, but noted the good investigative work you did in damning Lightnin’:
Man, do those that last two sentences ring unbelievably true now – we have you making a post-by-post analysis of a player who has been rising in suspicion, you start out by calling him “over-defensive”, and proceed to pick every minor nit you can you find – "small thing"s or "odd suspicion"s, as you refer to them – things that are either non-issues, or are just easily explained.
Sound familiar?
You built up a dam out of paper mâché and hoped it would hold water. And unfortunately for the rest of us, it did, and now we’re down another town player. Now you’re trying the exact same move against me. Time for your dam to burst.
Perhaps others will see your play this past day for what it is, perhaps not. However, if someone were to put themselves in the mindset that I’m definitely town and reread your original investigation of me (Post #1505), then there is a good chance they’ll see you for what you are.
Vote nesta
Interesting bit of voteplay late in the game yesterday. With the votes running pretty closely
between the late lamented Lightnin’ and myself. Omi no Kami voted for Rache Qoch and Rache Qoch voted for Omi no Kami. Very safe votes, those…
I am not as suspicious of CaerieD as I once was, even though she tried to get my lynched yesterday.
Cookies and CaerieD do make a good point I missed. Why did four people, Hal, Omi, Rachm, and **tirial ** not vote on one of the three main lynch candidates?
I have little read on Omi, what DOES bother me about him though, is that in his voting post he mentions that CaerieD and Lightnin’ don’t look scummy, but makes no mention of SCL either way before voting for **Rachm Qoch ** with no justification. That vote looks very safe, and very suspicious. It will look REALLY suspicious if SCL turns out to be scum. I won’t officially FOS you for this vote, but I hope you can at least provide the reasoning or link to where you did, for voting for Rachm Qoch.
I DID have a read on tirial that she was strong town, so I’m inclined to forgive her taking a “safe” vote because she at least provided reasoning for it. However, it’s also entirely possible that she was either recruited last night, or the night before, so most of my significantly lessened trust in her is more due to that. As I said before, even though it’s a realistic possibility that she’s been recruited, I don’t think it’s worth pursuing at this time.
Now Rachm Qoch and Hal Briston, they are starting to ping my scumdar a bit. Both have low post counts, and both had very safe votes yesterday. Also, because of the entanglement between Hal and nesta, I’m unsure which is likely scum (or neither, or both). So, I’ll go ahead and FOS **Rachm Qoch ** to hopefully get some more posts and an explanation out of him, and FOS **Hal Briston ** and nesta because their current entanglement makes it impossible to tell whether or not they’re on the same side.
I’m curious why many of you are calling the single votes “safe”.
When I made my vote, no one had more than two votes against them. I voted for someone I’m certain is scum, and did not participate in the lynching of a townie. The other single-voters did the same (well, I won’t speak to the certainty any of them have of their targets, but they had their reasons anyway).
Is blind bandwagoning supposed to be better?
No! I have yet to jump on a “bandwagon” and will not do so in the future. I just thought the votes I mentioned seemed rather suspicious - two low-lying posters voting for each other.
No, its not. However, IIRC, I didn’t see much input from you at all about the top three candidates yesterday. Don’t forget that part of the evidence against **SCL ** is her “safe” vote for fluiddruid on day two, even though fluiddruid ended up being scum. It may be flawed logic, or she may have been scum taking it as an opportunity to not participate in a townie lynch AND seperate herself from who she felt looked scummy.
So…did you think any of them (the top candidates) were scum? Did you think any of them were town? I don’t cast suspicion for voting for someone if you can convince me that you really thought they were scum (which, if you’re not scum yourself, you at least did justify, unlike some of the other “safe” votes). What bothers me more is the reletively low post count, and your choice of target. That is, I can see going after an unpopular target if you feel you can make a case, but I just don’t feel like I have enough information to make a strong judgment on nesta (who has a lower post count than you do) to say he’s definitely scum.
However, now that you have pointed out the timing of your vote (which I’d missed before), and you’re obviously making a concerted effort to post more, I won’t hound you. Still, regardless of who you vote for, it’s still nice to have the general position you hold with regard to the leading candidates, otherwise a “safe” vote does look like a distancing one if the lynchee comes up pro-town.