Yay! No bodies! We…errr…well, we don’t know if there was a successful recruiting, a failed recruiting or a blocked kill.
Huh…we really don’t know jack, do we? Sigh…ok, back to the lynching board.
Or remove extra apostrophes? 
I voted for CapnPitt cuz I didn’t buy the reasons for either Pleonasts or Menocchio’s lynching. A few reasons for CapnPitt were presented, and they didn’t sound like raging paranoia to me, so I voted. I honestly didn’t see a huge reason to vote for him, just a little tiny bit more of a reason than for the other two main contenders. With no real info to go on, that’s the best any of us can do.
EXACTLY! I don’t know why I don’t see this stuff when I preview, only after I post. :smack:
Anyway:
@Koldanar: I don’t know if there are enough scum for their to have been an effective scum push. Assuming that there were two scum, I would guess that one of them might have been on the wagon…but that is almost meaningless. I am more inclined to take a look at the people who didn’t end up voting for, or changing their vote to, Cap.
We ought to assume that the mafia recruited.
Our immediate discussion ought to be about the lynching of CapnPitt. It happened pretty damn fast. I’m inclined to think that NAF *was *innocent, since the scum didn’t really need to find a third candidate for a lynching. There was a lot of bandwagoning happening there, but again, most people were already voting for Pleo or myself, so the scum didn’t have to hide out with the Capn either.
I’m not sure there’s much useful there. The town obvious took “scabbling isn’t a sign of scumminess” to heart and lept at a potential tell stronger than anything I had or that hadn’t claimed like Pleo.
I’m definitely with you on that assumption; but it still may have not been successful…so we can assume a range of 1-3 scum, with the odds in favor of 2-3 at the moment.
Good point both of you too…they didn’t really need another candidate to add, as if Pleo were scum they had you, and if you are, vice versa.
Here is the problem with focusing on the dead captain. We had, at most, 2 scum last night. Therefore, the scum behavior would likely be more similar to that of a serial killer than that of a traditional scum group. The scum would probably have wanted to avoid the spotlight and let the town attack itself. The town had little to go on, so the scum didn’t need to push the vote in a particular direction. I find it more likely that the godfather was not in the lynching group than that he was.
Again. Vote: Pleonast
Yeah, the scum didn’t NEED to do anything. More often than not, bandwagons tend to be frenzied townies. I would find it more likely that the scum are buried somewhere in the Pleonast and Menocchio votes.
I really want to go after the semi-lurkers today. It’s just too easy - and safe - for scum to “coast” at this point, given their small numbers. Lurking is always bad for town, but it’s worse in this particular game. I voted for OneCentStamp yesterday because he caught my eye amongst the semi-lurking crowd, but I’m definitely going to do a re-read and look for more people to FOS.
hotflungwok, I don’t know why your first assumption is that a Vig kill was blocked. I think it’s more likely that the Vig didn’t try to kill anyone, given the discussion yesterDay.
Why do you find it odd?
My take on the votes is that it is more likely that there are no scum in the **CapnPitt ** lynchmob. I am going to look at the one-off voters. Scum tend to hide there early.
At this point, we really have no way of getting a clue as to how the Godfather was thinking. Someone was getting lynched yesterDay – the scum could participate in the lynching or not – their choice. Neither option would be more obvious then the other.
What they (incidentally – I use “they” because I’m of the opinion that there was a Night One recruitment, and even if there wasn’t, I’m erring on the side of caution here) probably wouldn’t do it stand out by being the first or last to vote for a main suspect. Nor do I think they’d go out on a limb and be one of the only ones voting for someone. Hiding in the mix is probably the safest place.
That said, we can pull the lists of those who voted for CapnPitt or Pleonast, drop the first and last voters, and have what I feel to be a fairly good chance of finding scum.
Unfortunately, it’s not that short a list: chrisk, MHaye, Hal Briston, bufftabby, Hotflungwok, Diomedes, Menocchio, Freudian Slit, OneCentStamp and Darth Sensitive.
Anyone find suspicion with anyone on the list?
On preview, I see HM disagrees with one of my points:
I won’t say I have hard data either way on this one – my guess was that scum wouldn’t want to stand out like that. Do you have any examples of this from previous games?
Why is any of this bad information to have?
Here is my thinking, we will probably mislynch again toDay, the odds are just against us and the information we have is still small. But if we actually make an attempt to wring as much information out of each Day as possible, by the time we get to Day 5 and 6 we will have LOTS of information on everyone playing.
This is good for two reasons; it will make it easier to spot long time scum AND it will make it easier to spot players who have changed to become scum.
There are probably three scum by now (always best to assume that there are more scum than less.) and that means scum will, uncounsciously, start acting like a team. They won’t mean to, but it will be impossible to totally stop. Searching for info at this point is the best thing we can do.
Also, will someone who is better than me at the math take a look at what a mass role claim will do for us at this point? I don’t think that it is necessarily a good idea right now, but I think at some time in the next Day or two there should be some sort of LIMITED mass claim. We don’t need everyone claiming, but getting a few semi confirmed town roles out there will (I think) be helpfull sooner rather than later. Again, I don’t think it should be toDay. But if someone (BlaM I am looking at you) could work up the math on when it might be usefull…
Well, I’ve been going on the assumption that the first kill was the vigilante, not the mob boss. If the vigilante was willing to kill in that situation, I can’t see them holding back when fingers are being pointed. My first assumption wasn’t that it was blocked, I actually find that kind of unlikely. I expected something to happen to Pleonast or Menocchio given all the heated rhetoric prior to the lynching. They would be the likely targets of any vigilante, but also the likely targets of the doctor, or prayer. I’m wondering if maybe the boss did kill the first night. That would mean there’s only 2 scum now, at most.
See, I don’t understand this. Why would all that arguing and finger pointing not make the vigilante want to clarify the issue a bit with some indiscriminant justice?
(Color removed.) Do you want to explain yourself?
My feeling is that you have to add the Menocchio voters list in there too. I do agree that I think it is UNLIKELY that scum are in the one offs. Unless the boss is a rookie, I just don’t see that happening.
I agree. I also don’t see why the *last *voter is less likely to be scum. I mean, someone has to be last, and the scum can’t predict if others will follow them or not.
I don’t think I stated that it was. Let me rephrase. I don’t think we should focus on the lynchers of Pitt more so than those who voted for others. More information is, of course, always helpful.
I don’t get the CapnPitt vote–I just don’t. He made a vague statement, and people jumped on him for that? personally, I really didn’t see any scum tells in what he said, and if that’s a scum tell for me, then so be it.
Well, that’s just it. All we have to go on is vague statements at this point. Pick the vague statement that sounds a little more scummy than all the other vague statements and vote for it. If the only thing we ever voted for was good hard evidence of scum, we’d all be waiting around twiddling our thumbs until the investigators got lucky, or some time around day 14.
Hmm…good point…hadn’t considered that. Ok, new stratagem: Ignore any analysis I happen to put out.