Mafia: The Mob is Recruiting [Game Finished]

The Game Room
781

[QUOTE=Drain Bead]

The funny thing is, I don’t disagree with the initial point he was making. Perhaps if Night posts hadn’t been included, it might have been a good tool to call out the lurkers and make people realize that they needed to make a record in order to help us after a potential recruitment, and make it harder for the scum to decide who to recruit in the first place. But I’m not sure how “Bartender, I want to do a body shot off of dotchan now!” type posts will help us with that process. Had NAF gone through and weeded out the Night posts, I don’t think I would have called him out at all.
[/QUOTE]

Hey, if you want to go through the weeding out process and post be my guest. I didn’t have the time, and it really is just a jumping off point for discussion. People with low post counts don’t help us even if almost all of their posts are high content, which was more the point I was trying to make. People aren’t posting enough even with the fluff.

782

[QUOTE=NAF1138]
Hey, if you want to go through the weeding out process and post be my guest. I didn’t have the time, and it really is just a jumping off point for discussion. People with low post counts don’t help us even if almost all of their posts are high content, which was more the point I was trying to make. People aren’t posting enough even with the fluff.
[/QUOTE]
My problem with this is that the people you hunt won’t be the people you say you want to find - those that are not contributing.

Payers with few, high-fibre Day posts (lots of crunch, geddit?) are contributing more than players who post 3-4 times in the Day and post lots of fluff at Night, but your system would target the former and leave the latter.

In the interests of full disclosure; I suspect I’m one of the people who I think your system would target, so naturally I don’t agree with it. I also don’t agree that driving up the postcount for the sake of a minimum number of posts is a good idea because it decreases signal-to-noise in the Days, thus discouraging people from wading through the posts to get at the crunch, or running out of time to read them all.

If, however, you went through and eliminated the Night/pregame posts from the count, you’d have a much more solid foundation. That takes time though, even for a few hundred posts. You’ll still have a problem with in-Day fluff, but people won’t be able to hide behind bartending activities any more.

We’ve had this argument before, and I suspect we’ll have it again. I don’t dispute that monitoring activity level will be a useful tool, primarily because quieter posters will find it easier to hide changes in role. I just think your initial proposition needs refining.

Time to reread Day 2 thoroughly.

783

Sorry I missed the start of the Day. RL raised it’s ugly head again. I will be posting my thoughts on role claiming (once I get my brain around it) and NAF’s numb3rs post about which I have two immediate concerns. The first others have mentioned: signal/noise ratio. The second: the possibility that high volume poster(s) could very well be scum in town distraction mode.

784

[QUOTE=Freudian Slit]
Okay, this could be a really subtle town move, or maybe he just forgot/didn’t realize. I’m not sure it’s enough for me to vote for a Menocchio lynch, though. I don’t think that your second point, not paying attention to the rules, is necessarily a lynchable offense, and I think that you might be jumping the gun with this point.
[/QUOTE]

I should probably make that clearer. In a general sense, “skimming” is a minor scumtell. And when you’re talking about something as important as which power roles should and shouldn’t claim, it’s important to know exactly what those roles do. When I was formulating my post, I went and scanned the list of roles on Page 1, to see the pros and cons of each roleclaim, because I’m new to this game and haven’t had the in-depth opportunity to parse everything out myself that other people in the game might have had. That’s how I caught the Vig thing, and it dawned on me just how anti-town it was to wing it when so much was on the line. That’s not a lynchable offense in and of itself, but when it was combined with a very anti-town suggestion and everything else that happened in previous days, it was enough for me to place my vote.

785

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
I can’t agree with this. Let’s assume worst case for a moment, that the scum have successfully recruited twice, and some other assumptions like that there’s three priests and three masons. Thus, currently there’s 23 players of which 3 are scum. Assuming it’s not a capo attempt and that we lynch a townie today, there are 6 unrecruitables (3 priests, Doctor, Vig, and Bishop) and 3 Masons. That’s 7 1/2 unrecruitables out of 19 non-scum for 39% failure rate on recruitment. If the Masons and Priests claim, we end up with 3 unrecruitables out of 13 for a 23% recruitment rate. Or, they may decide to kill instead. Right now, we have a 10.5% chance of either the Doctor or Detective being killed at random, but after such a claim it would be 15.4%; IOW, it would increase their odds by almost 50%. Not to mention, one of the scum would almost certainly claim priest, leaving us wondering if they did, and if so, how do we figure out?

Anyway, just looking at the numbers, recruiting a Mason, given that he’s claimed, isn’t a whole lot less likely than just a random shoot in the dark, but it does carry extra information and, of course, the general sentiment that Masons are trustworthy town.

I just can’t see how this would help us find the Boss that much better such that we can potentially give that much benefit to the scum.
[/QUOTE]

The trade off is that it would increase the Vig’s odds of taking out the godfather by a similar amount. It is just a question of what you consider most important. Claiming would also eliminate any extra information the scum would get from recruiting a mason.

786

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
It depends on the situation, which is why I really don’t understand this discussion. The Masons have more information that the town does about their roles, so they’re the best ones fit for deciding when they should claim. As for discussing some sort of mass role claim, again, it depends on the situation.

What’s the point of discussing whether or not a mass role claim on Day 6 might be helpful? We’d be making way too many assumptions about the events between now and then. I think such discussions should take place in the context of the situation. That is, if you think it’s prudent to do so now, bring it up and we’ll discuss it; if you don’t think it’s prudent, we can discuss it if someone wants to. But really, we need to concern ourselves with the strategy now and finding scum now. I’ve explained already why I think a mass role claim isn’t good now, but it MAY be a good idea later. Do you dis agree with that statement?
[/QUOTE]

I’m not talking about the future; I’m talking about now. I’m not of the belief that the longer we wait, the better a mass claim is. The longer we wait, the less we can trust people to still be on the town’s side. I think if we did a mass claim right at the beginning, it could HAVE worked if we played this game very aggressively. Doing it now I’m not sure of, which is why I’d like to discuss how we it would do it if we did do it. The equation does however change, once we take out the godfather.

That said, I have a new crazy idea. I expect it will be about 3.1 seconds before someone tells me why it is an awful idea, and why I’m scummy for suggesting it. Beat Cops and Police Chief claim either today or tomorrow. The cops then cross check each other each night in order to ensure that they aren’t converted.

Let’s say that we have cops A, B, C, and D. Cop A checks B, B checks C, C checks D, and D checks A. If C is recruited, then B would have a 50% chance of witnessing it tonight and an 80% chance on following days with A serving as protection for B. If C claims D is scum, then we can use B to tell if C is lying.

Advantages:
Lessens the pool for the godfather to hide in.
Gets all information from investigations out in the open.
Checks to see if cops have already have been recruited.
Protects cops from future recruitment.

Disadvantages:
Cops would not be able to perform new investigations until the godfather is lynched.
Godfather would have increased odds of finding the Detective, etc.
Cops aren’t perfect on their checks.

787

[QUOTE=Hawkeyeop]
That said, I have a new crazy idea. I expect it will be about 3.1 seconds before someone tells me why it is an awful idea, and why I’m scummy for suggesting it. Beat Cops and Police Chief claim either today or tomorrow. The cops then cross check each other each night in order to ensure that they aren’t converted.

Let’s say that we have cops A, B, C, and D. Cop A checks B, B checks C, C checks D, and D checks A. If C is recruited, then B would have a 50% chance of witnessing it tonight and an 80% chance on following days with A serving as protection for B. If C claims D is scum, then we can use B to tell if C is lying.

Advantages:
Lessens the pool for the godfather to hide in.
Gets all information from investigations out in the open.
Checks to see if cops have already have been recruited.
Protects cops from future recruitment.

Disadvantages:
Cops would not be able to perform new investigations until the godfather is lynched.
Godfather would have increased odds of finding the Detective, etc.
Cops aren’t perfect on their checks.
[/QUOTE]

This is the first post I’ve read in regard to role claiming that has made any sense to me. I’ve been having trouble understanding why anyone would even be considering role-claiming to be a good idea unless the player is about to be lynched. That’s not even to say that I’ve been thinking it’s a terrible idea, how dare anyone even suggest it, but I simply haven’t understood the reasoning behind it. But your plan, hawkeyeop, actually makes freakin sense! Of course, that involves any beat cops actually agreeing to it, as do all these debates about role-claiming.

788

The plan looks good on paper, but I still have a couple of questions:

  1. Would this investigation circle only happen once? Or would they have to redo it once the Boss is lynched, if they’re still alive then?
  2. How would this protect the Cops from future recruitment?
  3. Why wouldn’t the Cops be able to perform new investigations until the Boss is lynched?
789

[QUOTE=dotchan]
The plan looks good on paper, but I still have a couple of questions:

  1. Would this investigation circle only happen once? Or would they have to redo it once the Boss is lynched, if they’re still alive then?
  2. How would this protect the Cops from future recruitment?
  3. Why wouldn’t the Cops be able to perform new investigations until the Boss is lynched?
    [/QUOTE]

I meant the investigation circle to happen each night until the godfather is lynched. I think that would answer your other 2 questions, but let me know if it doesn’t,

790

Just a quick note - I won’t be able to participate much 'til Sunday. Real life rears its ugly head and all.

791

Hmm… But what about Beat Cop failure? With two Cops and a Chief that’s a 60% chance for each that there’s a failure. 80% if there’s three cops. Sure, they’d just report the failure and try again the next Night, but a gambling Mob could get several nights of Consigliere (or even Capo) attempts out of it. In fact, a bold and lucky Boss could try and scoop up the whole lot of 'em as Consiglieres before the last one noticed. It’d be risky, as each grab makes the remaining Cops more effective, but it’s doable. It’d take some time to sort out the mess if someone finally did test positive for scum.

And we’d lose the witnessing power as well as the BC’s investigations of other members in the meantime.

I say no. In fact, I’ll go further than that.
Vote Hawkeyeop for posting a strategy that could hand significant advantage to the mob.

Beat Cops, Police Chief, even if you don’t heed my general warning against outing yourself, please accept these two specific cautions:
Don’t come out until after the weekend, when those away can come back and comment.
Chief, don’t out yourself specifically as the Chief. Just calling yourself a Beat Cop works just as well for this plan.

792

I’ll be out of town for about 24 hours and will have limited access to the boards. I’ll be checking reported posts, so please report posts if there is anything urgent you need.

793

I’m pretty well overwhelmed here, (tried to catch up on the thread, but SHEESH, it just keeps going on and on,) but I did notice the point about getting people to speak up about their strategies as a way of getting more info.

As a somewhat traumatized newbie, my strategy is to not worry so much about keeping track of the counter-arguments and counter-counter-arguments and vote according to my gut. Maybe that makes me a wild cannon who’s more of a liability to the town than an asset to it, maybe it’s a flaming scum tell. I dunno. I’ll try to explain my gut feelings as much as possible, to let people try and get a read on me in exchange.

Right now, I’m feeling confused, but Voting Menocchio because of everybody who was a major player yesterday, he seems the most likely to either have acted out of scum motives, or to have been a recruit target this past night. And I don’t have any better targets out of anybody who wasn’t a major player yesterday.

But please, don’t make me actually drag him up to the lynching post again! :whimpers very softly:

794

[QUOTE=Menocchio]
Hmm… But what about Beat Cop failure? With two Cops and a Chief that’s a 60% chance for each that there’s a failure. 80% if there’s three cops. Sure, they’d just report the failure and try again the next Night, but a gambling Mob could get several nights of Consigliere (or even Capo) attempts out of it. In fact, a bold and lucky Boss could try and scoop up the whole lot of 'em as Consiglieres before the last one noticed. It’d be risky, as each grab makes the remaining Cops more effective, but it’s doable. It’d take some time to sort out the mess if someone finally did test positive for scum.

And we’d lose the witnessing power as well as the BC’s investigations of other members in the meantime.

I say no. In fact, I’ll go further than that.
Vote Hawkeyeop for posting a strategy that could hand significant advantage to the mob.

Beat Cops, Police Chief, even if you don’t heed my general warning against outing yourself, please accept these two specific cautions:
Don’t come out until after the weekend, when those away can come back and comment.
Chief, don’t out yourself specifically as the Chief. Just calling yourself a Beat Cop works just as well for this plan.
[/QUOTE]

Well it wasn’t 3.1 seconds, but close enough. I don’t understand your point on failure. Everyone will be investigating someone different, so each cop will have an eighty percent chance of succeeding.

795

[QUOTE=Hawkeyeop]
Well it wasn’t 3.1 seconds, but close enough. I don’t understand your point on failure. Everyone will be investigating someone different, so each cop will have an eighty percent chance of succeeding.
[/QUOTE]

From the rules:

This doesn’t say anything about investigating the same target, it just says if they choose to investigate at all. So I think you’re crunching your numbers wrong on your idea.

796

The mass Cop roleclaim seems full of holes to me. Why would we want to waste our most valuable source of information? If they can’t root out the scum, then they aren’t all that useful. How long will it take for us to kill the Boss so that they can investigate again? And who’s to keep the Boss and Hit Man from simply picking them all off over the course of two or three Nights? For what it’s worth, I don’t think there are more than two Beat Cops. Or what about Capo recruitment, when there’s only one of them left? What if one of them is already recruited?

There are just too many ways that the Mafia could turn it around on us. The Mason/Priest roleclaim idea sounded interesting, if only as a way to help keep us from lynching townies. However, in a game with recruitment, there’s too much chance that a person’s status can change from day to day.

797

As an aside, I kept a vote spreadsheet for my last Mafia game and shared it with everyone. It was pretty helpful once we were several days in. We could look for patterns and stuff, and it stimulated some good discussion. However, I’m not sure if it would be helpful in a game where allegiances are changing so frequently.

What do people think? I may not be able to get it done this weekend, but at some point (maybe next week or so), I could comb through the thread and pick out the votes. I won’t promise that I’ll do it, even if there is support, but I’ll try. Just a disclaimer so I won’t be pegged as scum if I don’t have the time. :slight_smile:

798

These are my post counts, through post #790, not including pre-game and night posts. I initially considered weeding the fluff from the substance, but I considered that we wouldn’t all necessarily have the same standards on that, so I didn’t.

Player Day 1 2 3 total
Millit. 3. 16. 1. 20
NAF1138. 0. 20. 16. 36
Hockey. 3. 12. 1. 16
bufftabby. 4. 17. 3. 24
Diomedes. 5. 12. 2. 19
dotchan. 2. 4. 5. 11
Idle. 6. 14. X. 20
Drain B. X. X. 7. 7
chrisk. 4. 11. 1. 16
MHaye. 1. 8. 2. 11
Menocchio. 7. 21. 6. 28
Santo R. 12. 16. 0. 28
Pleonast. 0. 18. 4. 22
Koldanar. 1. 13. 4. 18
BlaM. 0. 28. 22. 50
Hawkeyeop. 9. 20. 10. 39
HNC. 6. 19. 2. 27
Hotflungwok. 3. 12. 10. 25
Darth S. 4. 14. 5. 23
OneCentS. 0. 9. 3. 12
CapnPitt. 2. 19. X. 21
Freudian S. 2. 14. 5. 21
sinjin. 6. 11. 1. 18
Hal Briston. 2. 6. 4. 12

799

Oh, sorry, that’s through post #795, not #790. I can’t always read my own writing.

While I understand that lurking in and of itself isn’t necessarily a scum tell, some of my strongest suspicions DO sit on some of the lurkiest. FoS Hal Briston. Almost all of your posts have been fluff. When you did strategize once, you followed it up by saying not to listen to you about any analysis. You set off my my suspicion sirens, but my scumdar isn’t sure quite what to make of you yet.

FoS dotchan. When NAF1138 mentioned that it was strange for you to explain your lack of posts by way of all your time being taken by modding the off-board game, you didn’t answer his charge at all. You simply posted more. This seemed strange to me.

I also find it strange that we’ve not yet heard from Santo Rugger today, but I’m reserving my judgment on that until he returns and explains.

800

Ok this is in response to NAF’s post about posting numbers in which he states:

I would call it data with no analysis myself. (Figures never lie and liars never figure.) So I printed out all 15 pages of data, then had to run a couple of errands, and when I got home the power to our little sub was out. That’s what I get for living outside of Hooterville. :smack: So here we go.

I’ll be posting these in seperate bits for clarity. I will include the page number, day or night number and whether the post is Fluff (F) or Substance (S) and possibly commentary or quotes. Obviousely this is IMHO. Sorry I can’t link to all the threads, my time is finite. First DotChan:

1, N0, F, /in post with a couple of questions about game mechanics
3, N0, F
4, D1, S
4, D1, Fcolors vote from previous post
6, N1, F
7, D2, S
8, D2, S
8, D2, S
15, D3, S

Substance to Fluff ratio: 5/4