I always read the spoilered bits in this kind of thread. Would somebody please share with me whether
Prince Phillip does battle with her dragon form?
And, if so,
does he prevail?
it’s up to 50 for critics, 77 for audience.
No, to both. Maleficent doesn’t even turn into a dragon. Somebody else does.
For a studio that has been pathologically averse to maternal love and connection in its fairy tales over the decades, I think that (for all its minor flaws) this film is a fun and corrective achievement. I think it’s got some really great visual moments and doesn’t overstay its welcome, and is not painful the way the other overblown Snow White/Oz/Alice incarnations have been. That’s because its central character is truly magnetic and interesting, and I think it will get plenty of traction with girls and women in a way that made Frozen and Brave female-centered hits. And kudos for that.
Looks like a $68 million opening weekend.
Does that make it officially not a bomb or not?
If it cost $200 million to make I wonder how much you’re supposed to pull in in the first two or three weekends to not be considered a flop. I mean I figure it’ll turn a profit eventually anyway with rentals and the overseas market, but if it cost, say, $200 million and makes only, say, $205 million in two months then is it considered a “failure” even though it made $205 MILLION?
Titanic was considered a flop months before it opened, and when it opened that status was confirmed with a $20 mil weekend. Just sayin’.
It is hard to figure out what the ratio of box office to budget should be used. In the old days, a 2-1 ratio was typical. But now the studio takes all the money for the first two weeks (which is typically the lion’s share of the total box office). There is also overseas money which is often more than domestic. But the studios sell rights in many places for a fixed amount. Box office doesn’t matter. In other places, where piracy is a problem, the studio takes a fairly small cut of the box office just to ensure the film is widely shown to counter piracy. Etc.
The biggest “who knows” factor is promotion. Some big films have a bigger promo budget than the film itself. And those numbers are harder to guess at. Maleficent in particular falls into this category.
DVDs/streaming/TV also bring in a lot of money. Especially for kids’ films. Will this movie fit into that category or not?
If it wasn’t for the promo budget, I’d say this movie is going to easily make much more than enough to pay for itself. But with the promo costs figured in, it will take a pretty good amount of overseas money to make big money, IMHO.
The worst case scenario seems to be that it might only barely break even. But that is unlikely.
Yeah, good luck with that. Hollywood studios have a strong disincentive to minimize profits (on paper) as they might have to pay royalties and residuals, which would eat into real profits. Films that spawned multiple sequels, such as Tim Burton’s Batman, supposedly lost money. According to The Atlantic, Return of the Jedi never made made a net profit, meaning that the guy who played Darth Vader still hasn’t received a penny in residuals.
My understanding, however, is that yeah, if Maleficent only grossed $5 mil worldwide over production costs, that would be considered a failure and would probably be a legitimate money loser due to costs not included in production, like distribution and marketing.
Here’s a broad overview. Things you have to consider:
- Films have “legs” (multipliers of first-weekend box office) that vary by type and quality of film. In the US, crappy films make something like 2x their first-weekend box office, kids’ animated films can go as high as 4x (though I think that’s more a function of the fact that parents don’t rush to take their kids to opening weekend night showings). My complete guess is that Maleficient will have legs of a little under 3x, based on the kind of film it is plus what other movies open soon. I said $180M above, let’s just call it $200M domestic box office.
- Production companies keep a portion of the box office, theaters take the rest. Typically that’s been a sliding scale where the producers keep a high % of opening weekend and then it declines; overall average historically has been 55% at the end of a run. These vary a lot, however, and Disney has tons of pull, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it were 60%. So let’s say Disney keeps $120M in the US by the time Maleficent leaves theaters.
- P&A (prints and advertising) is typically shared between the production and distribution companies. In this case they’re effectively the same, so Disney shares all the costs. The P&A average is something like $30M across all films. but Disney will vastly outspend that. Including foreign (more on that later) I’ll bet it hits $100M.
So let’s see, adding that up, Disney is seriously in the hole, losing $180M so far! But wait…there’s more. First and foremost is foreign box office, which on releases like this is actually the biggest source of income. Look for example at a move like Alice in Wonderland, which made $334M in the US but > $1B world wide. Thus a loser stateside, but a huge winner for Disney.
And that’s the key point: domestic box office is no longer the main focus for large releases. That’s why (for example) you will see more films opening in Asia first, where pirating is an issue…it’s a pre-emptive strike to keep that foreign box office. So where does that leave Maleficent? I have no idea, except I have no doubt it will significantly exceed that $180M by enough to make a nice return on investment for Disney. Yes it’s a guess, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see something like $350M+ international.
And hey! That doesn’t even include DVDs, VOD and merchandising. I’d call this one a winner.
Sorry for the long post.
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I was thinking about this further, and I overestimated Disney’s share of foreign receipts. Realistically they’ll probably keep around a third of that, so they’ll still be reliant on post-theatrical income to make it worthwhile.
I went with my kids yesterday. A very mature 14 year old girl and a slightly immature 12 year old. Both pronounced it much better than the original. I enjoyed it as I was watching but have no desire to see it again. So I’d say it accomplished what it wanted to do.
Jolie’s daughter as the young Aurora was adorable.
The official studio estimate for the weekend is $70,000,000. That’s right, $70M on the nose. That’s not taken seriously by anyone. When the real numbers come out, it will be under. 2% over is common for such obviously rigged numbers.
Beware of estimates just over a round number. Laugh at any estimate that is a round number.
Looking ahead, How to Train Your Dragon 2 is due in 2 weeks. That will really hurt Maleficent’s tail. $250M definitely looks out of reach.
I see what you did there.
I think you’re close, but missing the key factor: box office can be largely irrelevant to whether a movie is successful - a profit center - or not.
As this series from Ivey Business Review indicates, ancillary revenue is by far a higher source of money for tentpole pictures than either domestic or international box office.
If a picture can break even - or come close to it - the backing studios (the big six) will be more than happy to greenlight a sequel or similar project downstream as the anticipated ancillary revenue - which includes DVDs and streaming but both are outperformed by advertising tie-ins, T-shirts, posters, videogames and so forth.
From a chart in the second of the IBR articles, the so-called blockbusters in 2013 saw an aggregate box office loss of about 10% of costs while making ~80% return on investment from ancillary revenue. 2012 was a bit better with features breaking even at the box office but ancillary revenue was 100% ROI. The worst year charted - it goes back to 2003 - is 2010 where box office was a ~20% loser and ancillary revenue dropped to only 60% ROI.
The above really only applies to tentpole pictures, though. Small indies and other films without much ancillary capability (I can’t imagine a Winter’s Bone lunchbox) have to live and die with traditional revenue streams and need to be much more efficient in what they do.
Thanks, that was really interesting reading (though the link kept crashing my iPad!). The argument is compelling, but I’d make one significant correction his methodology: he seems to have left out the value of tax incentives. Most of the production costs he lists can be cut by at least 20%; in the case of The Great Gatsby, it was nearly $80M. Thank you Australia! Otherwise this makes sense.
I tend to think it will be a failure as well.
Now, to be fair, I thought that Frozen would tank, so my prediction isn’t worth the photons it’s printed on.
I can’t really disagree with you there, except to note that added that into the calculations only bolsters the argument that ancillary revenue is the bigger slice of the pie, since such would be accounted for as ancillary revenue for tax purposes.
I’d say that it’s probably hard to track such incentives, though, as they tend to be awarded on an annual and not a project basis, thereby encouraging studios to make multiple features in a region.
I took 4 girls to see it last night (14, 12, 10 & 9). All 5 of us enjoyed it - as well as the entire full theater - there was applause at the end. The 9 year old has already put the Bluray on her birthday list, and asked if we can see it again next week, so it’s apparently pleasing its target/core audience.
I actually enjoyed it quite a bit. Sharlto Copley nailed his part, and the one scene that exactly mimics a scene from the original - the christening/curse scene - was really, really well done. My only complaint is that they emasculated the character of Prince Philip. He was pretty much the only Disney prince worth a damn, at least until Eric showed up, and they turned him practically into a Macguffin.
Figures I’ve seen indicate an additional $100mil worldwide in addition to the $70mil domestic US. So $170mil for opening weekend seems to me that “flop” is no longer an option. “Not a blockbuster that will be remembered throughout the ages” is still in play, however.
I saw it today, I thought it was pretty good. I’m not a huge fan of the re-characterizations/re-imagines, but within that context I found it enjoyable, even if sometimes I did feel like it was veering towards some of the Maleficent/Aurora ships I’ve seen on DeviantArt.