First things first, I predict that much of Spirited Away’s success in America will depend on the quality voice acting (not a whole lot of really big names attached, I see; we’ll see how this goes).
In every other way, however, Spirited Away deserves to do significantly better than Princess Mononoke.
Visually. Spirited Away has the most stunning and imaginative visuals that I have ever seen. Kodama are fine and good, but the creatures in SA have them outdone both in terms of imagination and cuteness.
( ::KKB takes a moment of silence to mourn his lost Kodama pin:: )
Children’s reaction. The kids will eat this movie up.
First off, the protagonist is a young girl (eleven or twelve, perhaps), and there aren’t nearly as many meddling adults as Mononoke had. (In fact, if you define “adults” as being adult and human, there aren’t any for most of the movie.) She’s also much more likable than either of the young protagonists from PM (Ashitaka was too serious and San was just plain cold). In other words, she’s just a little girl, and kids dig story characters that are like them.
Secondly, the story is much more goal oriented and isn’t as bogged down (as a child would perceive it) with moral and ideological ambiguity as PM. In other words, it’s not as talky.
Finally, on a related note, there’s more action than in PM (it’s also less gory, FWIW). And the visuals, which I think children would find amusing, should get them through the slow bits (which, considering Miyazaki’s other works, really aren’t all that slow at all).
Adult reactions. The few adults who see it should enjoy it.
It is long, but it is at the same time very straightforward (well, for the most part), and the time should go by relatively quickly. (It’s also shorter than AotC, I believe, and I’m sure tens of thousands of parents sat through that.) Did I mention that it’s a gorgeous movie?
Thematically, it’s a very…“warm fuzzy” movie, so it shouldn’t get the “Huh? Did we win?” type reaction that PM had. And, again, it’s not as gory so not as much “My darling child shouldn’t have been exposed to that” reaction. (There is blood, btw, but no severed hands. That should count for something.)
Box office. It will make a depressingly small amount of money, as Disney doesn’t seem to be promoting this movie at all.
Only a chance encounter with a movie poster let me know that Disney was releasing this movie in September (prior to this, I only heard whisperings that Disney had any plans for it at all), and that doesn’t bode well at all. On the other hand, this movie does have potential for generating good, and strong, word of mouth, if Disney does release it in enough theaters nationwide. We’ll just have to see.