So…Trump is trying to move a September sentencing into October?
Of course not…he wants it moved till after the election.
While I am sure dems would love a mid-October sentencing they get mid-September or after the election. They’ll take mid-September. It’d be better if it was before the debate.
Here is a NYT gift link that well describes the dilemma Justice Merchan faces in sentencing Trump in this case.
Trump Hush Money Sentencing by Justice Merchan
From the article:
Justice Merchan has made a steadfast effort to approach the landmark case no differently than hundreds of others he has overseen.But more than three months after a Manhattan jury convicted Mr. Trump on 34 felony counts of falsifying records to cover up a sex scandal, the veteran judge faces his greatest predicament: He must decide whether to sentence Mr. Trump as planned on Sept. 18 or wait until after Election Day, as Mr. Trump has requested.
Justice Merchan has already agreed to delay the sentencing once, and his upcoming decision — which will be made in the heat of a presidential campaign that has pitted Mr. Trump against Vice President Kamala Harris — will reverberate well beyond his Lower Manhattan courtroom.
I thought this take by another judge who has known Justice Merchan summed up well what I expect him to do:
Some of Justice Merchan’s colleagues, while acknowledging his quandary, predicted he would tune out the political noise and issue a reasoned decision. They noted that the judge had maintained his usual drama-averse demeanor while presiding over the trial, even as Mr. Trump attacked him and his family, falsely claiming they were members of a Democratic cabal.
“Whatever decision Judge Merchan makes will not only be the right decision, it will be driven by nothing other than that which occurred in the context of this case,” said Jill Konviser, a retired judge who has known Justice Merchan for more than 15 years.
“Donald Trump will be treated fairly,” she added. “Of that, I am 100 percent sure.”
This really seems the only sensible thing the judge can do. He needs to rule as if it were @Aspenglow vs @Whack-a-Mole in March of 2023 and no political anything. If he bends to political considerations there will be no end to the criticism he will take. Best to make a decision as he would in any other case. As he has in many dozens of previous cases.
Tl;Dr: Merchan needs to be consistent.
ETA: I do not envy that judge having to make this decision in this political climate.
“Donald Trump will be treated fairly”
DJT “They’re picking on me!”
So the main consideration in when/whether Merchan sentences trump seem to boil down to “Is it political to do it now, or is it political to consider politics when thinking about timing?” The obvious (to me) answer is #2. Don’t consider politics. Don’t consider who is being sentenced. Consider what would be normal treatment for any of the hundred plus other convicted felons he’s dealt with in his judicial career and just do that.
As to the whole “throw out the conviction due to immunity issues raised by the Supreme Court ruling” all I have to say is that they have every right to appeal, but this trial is done and the people delivered a verdict. So move it along, impose a sentence consistent with normal practices, and let the appeal commence. It’s the only correct answer in my opinion.
Consider Judge Chutkan’s response when trump’s lawyers tried to make her take politics into account in the election subversion trial:
“We are talking about the presidency of the United States,” Lauro says.
“I am not talking about the presidency,” Chutkan says. “I am talking about a four count indictment.”
My WAG is that Merchan sentences Trump – on schedule – to the harshest sentence possible that won’t adversely affect Trump’s ability to campaign or stand for office. IOW, no prison time, no travel restrictions. (I’m not at all sure what that sentence might be.) That way he can feel like he did right by the people of New York without being accused of pulling a Comey.
Of course, Trump and the MAGAverse will immediately proclaim TOTAL EXONERATION!
I think that’s incredibly unlikely.
Merchan, on the other hand…
Fixed it – thanks!
People keep saying things like this but when has Merchan shown the slightest indication he is going to give Trump leeway because he’s running for president? I can’t think of a single time he’s hunted that.
He’s shown all along that he’s treating Trump fairly as anyone accused of a felony in new York. Thats not to say he definitely won’t give him noncustodial sentence or let him out pending appeal. But if he does it will be because that’s what NY law says should happen, not because he’s terrified of being a “comey”. He has never once given any indication that’s what he’s thinking
He sort of did at the contempt hearing where he said
“The last thing I want to do is put you in jail,” Merchan said. “You are the former president of the United States and possibly the next president as well.”
It’s worth noting what he said later in the same ‘discussion:’
Merchan: But, at the end of the day, I have a job to do, and part of that job is to protect the dignity of the judicial system and compel respect. Your continued violations of this court’s lawful order threaten to interfere with the administration of justice in constant attacks which constitute a direct attack on the rule of law. I cannot allow that to continue. So, as much as I do not want to impose a jail sanction, and I have done everything I can to avoid doing so, I want you to understand that I will, if necessary and appropriate.
You’re absolutely right. I almost added “But I will if I have to.” But the assertion was that Judge Merchan never even hinted that he would consider Trump’s status as a candidate. He “sort of” hinted that it’s a consideration. However, I agree with those who say he shouldn’t, and probably won’t, use Trump’s campaign as a factor at sentencing.
Having followed along in terms of Merchan’s actions in this case, I continually tell myself that, based on his calls made to date, I’ll have faith in any sentencing decision that Merchan eventually makes.
And if I tell myself that often enough, there’s a half decent chance that I’ll come to believe it 
My guess is that Merchan will impose a term of incarceration, stayed pending appeal. What form that incarceration would take, I don’t know. More likely to be house arrest rather than Riker’s.
Factual question, which I’m sure has already been answered a dozen times in this thread: If Merchan says “four years in prison,” does Trump in fact get hauled off to prison? Or will some appeal or other delaying tactic keep him un-incarcerated?
(Or is the opposite of “incarcerated” actually “carcerated”?)
If even a prison sentence won’t keep Trump off the campaign trail (and out of the White House, Og forbid), then Merchan may as well throw the book at him.
But if a prison sentence actually means prison and utter chaos with the election six weeks away, my guess is that Merchan won’t pull that trigger.
No. Never in a billion years. I am not a lawyer, but I’ve watched how Trump has been treated by our American justice system. Not only never off to prison, but Trump will never hear the ratcheting click of a pair of handcuffs.
I wish it weren’t so, but it are.
The cases that will bring significant prison time are the January 6th insurrection case and the documents case. If the documents case is left with Cannon, then the only one with a chance of bringing significant prison time is the January 6th case. This was never the case that would bring a hefty prison sentence.
Justice Merchan will give a fair sentence based on consideration of many things, among them the defendant’s remorse (nil), whether he’s a first-time offender (he is), the extent to which he has complied with the Court’s prior orders (yes and no) and many other factors.
I think Justice Merchan will impose a limited jail term, not prison. And I believe he will stay that jail term pending appeal, provided that Trump continues to comply with all terms and conditions of his probation.
OK, but he’s never before been convicted of, nor sentenced for, an actual felony (let alone 34 of them).
I was about to ask for legal POV, but then I saw @Aspenglow’s new post.
Which Trump will immediately violate, without consequence.
This is true, and it will weigh in Trump’s favor. Nevertheless, Trump’s efforts to put court staff, the prosecutors, witnesses, jurors and their families in harm’s way over the course of this prosecution were egregious and will weigh very much against him. While it’s true that many first-time offenders receive no jail time, Trump has flaunted his privileged status and I believe this will cause the judge to impose one. It won’t be much, but whatever it is will terrify Trump and he will act like he’s received a death sentence.
You don’t know this, and I think we should give Justice Merchan the benefit of the doubt. He’s been as straight a shooter as a judge can be in this case. YMMV, but I refuse to become this jaded.