Here’s an Alternate History story for Sunday morning, which will require your contributions to fill out to your imagination. The only real rule is that it has to be decidedly pro-American; to an almost unreasonable extent. =)
On May 13, 1846, the United States declared war on Mexico. A little more than a month later, on June 15, 1846, the United States and Britain signed the Oregon Treaty, which divided the Oregon Territory at the 49th parallel.
What if Sir Robert Peel’s Tory government with a Little England policy had not come to power, and the government in power from 1841-1846 was in control of men similar to Richard Pakenham? After the U.S. declared war on Mexico on May 13, 1846, the British would be very much aware of the fact that one of America’s goals in the war was the acquisition of California, which would be a result directly in contradiction with British foreign policy regarding California (and Mexico), expressed by Pakenham. About a month prior to the declaration of war on Mexico, the United States had terminated negotiations with Britain over the Oregon Territory, with Polk returning to the 54 40 or fight position.
On June 30, 1846, Lord John Russell succeeded Sir Robert Peel as Prime Minister.
Substituting the Ottoman Empire with Mexico and the Russian Empire with the United States, we have: Mexico was in a state of decline…The United States in particular sought to assert its territorial claims to northern Mexico at the expense of Mexican territory in North America. Let’s assume that the Oregon Treaty, which was signed by June 15, 1846, was left to the succeeding government, which came to power on June 30, 1846, and that Britain decided ally with Mexico to thwart U.S. expansion in both Oregon and northern Mexico instead of allying with France to thwart Russian expansion into the Ottoman territories, however unlikely or likely this scenario is.
The Oregon boundary dispute being unsettled, when news reached Britain of the U.S. army takeover of California on June 23, Britain balked on a peaceful settlement of the Oregon dispute, and drew a line on U.S. expansion. Three days after Russell’s government came to power, on July 3, 1846, Britain received word of the American takeover of California, and decided to give Russia a free hand in Ottoman territories, and seek a military alliance with Mexico to reverse any gains made by the United States, and to seek a military solution to the Oregon Territory, namely that of All Oregon down to the 42th parallel.
On July 7, 1846, Britain and Mexico declared war on the United States.
What do you see as the absolute worst-case scenario for the Mexico and Britain alliance, and what do you see as the final settlement, and gains/losses for each of the three nations in that worst-case scenario?
There are three further constraints:
-no other nations (such as France and Russia) intervene, either militarily or diplomatically
-just like the Grand Alliance in the Second World War, Britain and Mexico agree to not make a separate peace throughout the war
-the war escalates to a level similar to the American Civil War, with mass conscription and mobilization on both sides of the conflict.
-Winfield Scott invades Canada and Zachary Taylor invades Mexico.
The deck is stacked against America, I think, but let’s go back to the Manifest Destiny America where we believed we were destined to all of North America, and had ended up in a situation where we had to conquer, or be conquered, and try to imagine that outcome in which America still manages to win a marvelous victory, annexing enormous portions of British North America far above and beyond the Oregon Territory itself, and also with Mexico. Let the inner patriotism come forth. 