I am thinking primarily about immigrants possibly manning somewhat of a manufacturing rebirth in the U.S… Are their any indications that this is underway? The southwest and west in general has plenty of land to support large industrial complexes but these same places are not all that popular for development.
How would they do this? By paying sub minimum wages with no benifits? They can already do this by having the goods produced in Mexico and shipped over the border, its whats keeping the auto industry afloat.
They would likely be paying more than minimum wage.
Until /unless we have tariffs in place to offset things, it will always be cheaper to have a manufacturing plant in Mexico paying Mexican wages to Mexicans than to have a manufacturing plant in the US southwest paying semi-American wages to Mexican immigrants (legal and illegal).
Is less confidence in supply chain reliability playing in more as a factor today? And In the future?
The supply chain risk is more due to chips that are produced in Asian countries being in short supply, not in the assembly of parts in Mexico. That and USMCA (formally NAFTA) sets up agreements with Mexico and Canada for favorable trade status with our neighboring countries.
Are the venture capitalists becoming leerier of foreign investments?
Investments in China, yes. Many companies are pulling production out of China into neighboring countries for parts deleivered to North America, leaving only factories that supply the China market there. The Biden administration has not removed the tariffs set up under the Trump administration, a sign that we still see China as an unstable partner.
As much as I would like for us to start making things again, I just don’t see how we can compete against the foreign labor market, especially now that the factories and workers are already in place in these other countries.
And it benifits us to have neighbors with healthy economies with decent jobs. Just think how bad it would be if there were no good jobs in Mexico. There is a reason that many of the immigrants crossing the Mexican border are coming from Central America and not as many from Mexico itself.
Traditionally labor has gone from one country to another. The manufacturing raises the standard of living and the country becomes a consumer of goods. The labor goes somewhere else cheaper. This would not take too long to reach some kind of equilibrium in a free world, China and the countries controlled by China will become the last bastion of cheap labor. That is a scary thought to see them having so much control just based on economics.
Good point, and that includes the economies of our real and potential enemies as well. Since the United States is economically beneficial to countries like China, that makes it far less likely that China would do anything to destroy that economically beneficial relationship.
I would not even suggest removing labor from mexico, on the contrary I would see that grow as well.
I think history bears that out.
Would firing up our industrial complex send a strong message to China?
I beleive we are looking to produce more of our own chips in the United States again. An industry we started and then let go offshore. We also need to produce our own rare earth magnets again, but that is an enviromently unfreindly process. China can just ignore the enviroment and pollute at will, thats how they took over that business.
What would that message be? That we’re willing to lower our standard of living for the underclasses of America in order to produce cheap goods?
Mexicans make up the largest origin of immigrants to the US, by more than double the next country. Maquiladoras in particular pay shit wages for labor near the border, but it’s likely enough to keep many of them from leaving.
There is plenty of land in the west, yes, but one important reason it isn’t as popular for development is lack of water.
It seems like industry, of whatever type, always needs lots of water.
Labor costs in China rise just like they do everywhere else, so even there it’s getting more expensive to produce stuff. So production for some goods has moved to Bangladesh (textiles, especially), Vietnam and other countries. And Chinese companies are investing heavily in robotics and automation.