I know we’re both speculating amidst the murk here (why doesn’t the NFL just put their rulebook online?), but I’m hoping it’s not so.
The problem being that if a player can do that, he’s got an avenue to advance the ball where it’s illegal to hit or tackle him, since presumably hitting an out-of-bounds player is illegal whether or not he’s airborne. And that would be a strange state of affairs.
What I (and many others have) observed was the Bears played a scheme that had the safety’s pulled up close to the line - Hence the 88 yards rushing by Carolina. For the Bears to win while doing this either of two things needed to happen
a) The Bears Pass Rush could hit JD - or at least hitn’hurryn’harass him
OR
b) the the CBs could handle Smith 1:1 (like they did the rest of the Panther’s WR).
If neither happened the Bears would lose. Neither happened.
Everyone who said the Redskins were too beat up you were right. Very Painful.
If you you told me 9/01/05 the Redskins would go as far in the Playoffs as the Pats and Colts and futher than the Eagles and Dallas I would have taken it and called it a GREAT season. And I do. But D^mn. D^mn.
Quick clarification: A runner is not out of bounds until he touches the ground and is therefore fair game to hit. Announcers (and refs) often mistakenly look at replays and scream about late hits when the guy crosses the white line but he’s not down until he touches. Granted there’s a certain sportsmanship issue where if the guy is coasting out of play versus trying to dive forward for an extra yard or not.
Personally that endzone to infinity/any part of the body inbounds rule seems inconsistent. They NCAA rule makes more sense.
As to the Bears/Panthers game, I only watched bits and pieces of it, but I did catch most of the second half. I was happy with the outcome, mostly because I dislike the Bears. I think the Panthers beat the Bears in almost every facet of the game, but did not dominate them. It was a great game to watch, but the one thing that stuck out to me was exactly what Omni said, how do you not double cover Smith? I can understand it in the first half, when the Bears tried to establish their run defense and see if Peanut could cover Smith one on one. It made sense because Foster had come into the game hot and limiting his productivity would be a huge help to the Bears. But, for Og’s sake, learn from that mistake in the second half, especially when Foster was no longer an issue. Smith caught as many balls as all 8 other Panthers combined, how do you not put two on him or roll the safeties to his side? I think part of it was hubris. The Bears defense did so well most of the season, that it seemed they didn’t think they’d have to change their gameplan, or to adjust to the play on the field.
The Bears are still a young team, which makes them even more dangerous next year. But I gotta tell you, while they’ve put together a solid to great D and have a servicable OL and RB, they’ve completely fucked up the QB position. Grossman isn’t going to cut it, and their inability to find a capable QB is just silly. This easily could have been their year if they had a real NFL quarterback.
This weekend should be more excellent football, though. It is actually really enjoyable to watch football for football’s sake and not worrying whether Ronnie Brown is getting yards or if K. Jones can ever find the endzone. Fantasy football can take away some of the enjoyment, but the playoffs get me all excited again. And the games this weekend should be great. I’m slowly getting over my dislike for the Steelers, because Bettis, Ward, Troy and Ben seem to be genuinely good people who play hard and extremely well. I actually find myself rooting for them, which never would have happened before.
It’s so nice to go back to being a fan, rather than a fantasy football fanatic, of the NFL. Too bad there’s only 3 games left.
So am I the only person who’s wondering about the politics and PR decisions involved in the NFL admitting the refs blew a call? I mean, it’s not like they put out an ‘errors and corrections’ page every week.
I mean, let’s have a show of hands here, who thinks that the NFL would still have put that statement out if Vanderjagt had hit the figgie and the Colts won in overtime?
I also almost wonder if it wasn’t a way to distract from the Patriots pass interference call, and not-into-the-endzone call on the runback fumble. The non-New England part of me admits the Polamalu call was even more obviously wrong, but in the end it didn’t change the outcome of the game.
One additional comment about the Bears to help me finish spewing bile.
For all the other flaws in their game one of the most horrible, second only to the Smith fiasco, was the atrocious Punting of Brad Maynard. This guy has been killing us for weeks. Flip back to my previous Picks threads and see me predicting that he’ll be our achillies. He had punts of 13 yards, 19 yards and 25 yards IIRC. Supposing he averages a pedestrian 45 yards per punt it’s reasonable to think that the Bears avoid getting into that big hole. He allowed the Panthers to start close to the 50 yard line several times in the first half. Just unforgivable.
Is there anything worse than watching your punter shank a crucial punt when you’re a defensive/field position team? Ugh.
Still, I agree with Hamlet, there’s no reason to think we won’t be back stronger next year. We’ve got some holes to fill, but the important guys are under contract. I’m comfortable with Grossman as the QB. We need to improve at both punter and kicker. We need some help at WR and LB. We need to prepare smarter for good teams and get a little more consistent with the running game, but I think we’re the prohibitive favorite for the NFC Norris and should be back in the playoffs.
They’ve admitted to game-changing officiating errors during the postseason in the past - ask any Giants fan.
From ESPN.com’s story on the fumble call:
“The NFL almost never makes public the result of its reviews, although it did three years ago, when Pereira said officials should have called pass interference against San Francisco on the final play of a wild-card game with the New York Giants. The correct call would have given New York a second chance to kick a game-winning field goal in a 39-38 loss.”
Y’all want some cheese with those whines?
I tried to tell y’all. But would you listen?
I don’t know, but since Feagles is retiring, I have a feeling I’ll be finding out next season.
Ellis Dee, you can have Maynard back.
Well, it’s time to discuss the Conference Championship games and sadly the Bears are not a part of it. I’ll be in the corner getting shit-faced with the Redskins fans while trying to keep the Pats and Colts fans from strangling each other. Should be a couple of exciting games. All four teams are balanced without any obvious holes. You can make a pretty compelling case why any of these teams will win their game. Strong coaches, QBs, defenses and running games all the way around. The two home teams have pretty sizable homefield advantages, on paper anyways, and the two road wild-card teams have each already handled two road playoff opponents. I think it’d be a surprise if either one of these games turned into a blowout so I suspect we’ll be in for an exciting weekend. Lets have a look see.
Sunday, January 22nd
AFC Conference Championship
**DENVER 3 Pittsburgh 41 **
I’m not a fan of either of these teams. I’ve always loathed the Steelers and while I was a huge Elway fan, the Shanahan Broncos have always irritated me. I think it’s the new uni’s. I’m going to take a little different tactic in the review this week and do a position by position comparison instead of the usual stream of consciousness.
QB – Plummer vs. Roethlisberger. I think it’s time to give up the prejudice against Plummer. All season long he’s handled tough defenses and all kinds of expectations and hasn’t folded once. I don’t think he’s Elway, but with a good scheme and a running game to share the load he has been and will remain a very dangerous QB. If you doubted Shanahan’s skills and dismissed his Super Bowl wins due to Elway, I think he deserves a ton of credit for bringing out the best in Plummer. I think his ability to move out of the pocket will be a big advantage in this game, the Steelers defense lives off the blitz and they lack a truly game changing DL, Plummer’s mobility and bootlegs could really neutralize the Pittsburgh rush. As for Big Ben, he’s been close to flawless in the post-season this year. All season long he’s gotten the job done without having to be the man and he’s got a reliable crew of WRs helping him by getting open. His size and ability to move in the pocket make for very few sacks and deflected passes. My first concern would be whether or not the speed of the Denver LBs will create issues for him. I’ll call this matchup a push.
RB – Both teams essentially do running back by committee, the bane of FFLers everywhere. The Broncos, aided by their always solid blockers, probably have the edge overall. The 3-4 scheme will probably slow down the Denver trio by neutralizing their cut blocks and changing the point of attack. Against the Pats who run a similar scheme the Bronco rush was fairly limited and I see no reason to expect things to dramatically improve against the Steelers. The Steelers Rush is less explosive and hasn’t been as reliable as the Broncos and the Broncos are sporting a league best run D. Bettis is a great story and is still a load on short yardage but he’s not going to come out with a 100yd game, if they get 50 out of him they should count their blessings. Parker and Haynes will be a more serious threat but the Broncos speed at linebacker should keep them in check. All in all neither team is going to steamroll the other and I can’t imagine either team managing much more than 100 combined rushing yards. The Broncos have a slight advantage and I suspect they’ll be more dedicated to it.
WR – Neither team really has a frightening crew of WRs, but the Steelers group has a bigger home run threat. Ward and Randle El have speed to turn short routes into big gains. Neither is tall enough or physical enough to be a major threat on the edges and they’ll make most of their gains in the middle of the field. That however takes them right into the strength of the Denver defense. The LB crew and the DBs cover tons of ground and can bring the wood. The Broncos, led by the aging Smith, lack a real home run threat. Lelie has the speed and body but hasn’t been consistent enough. Smith runs perfect routes and moves the chains so well, but doesn’t have the wheels to really stretch the defense. The Steelers have a slight edge in this respect, but the Broncos have an edge in the secondary making this category a wash.
Defense – Both teams have good well rounded squads but I give the slight edge to the Broncos, largely on the back of their secondary. The Steelers play together very well and the 3-4 always gives teams a little bit of trouble when they’re not used to facing it. The Broncos however have dealt with it recently and often enough to not be concerned. The Broncos front four has been very effective against the run, more so than the Steelers run defense, and have allowed the LBs freedom to flow. Troy Polamalu is probably the best defensive player on the field right now and that could be a game changer. The matchups favor the Broncos and they have a couple more playmakers. By the slimmest of margins I like the Denver crew.
Coaching – Certainly these guys have both good credentials and have been making all the right moves. Neither has had a game in which they were out coached or under prepared. Shanahan has an occasional tendency to forget about the run and get a little too creative. Cowher practically has a fetish for trick plays, when they work it’s gold, but trick plays don’t always work. Both guys have been given the “can’t win the big one” tag, fairly or not. As it all shakes out to me, it’s another draw.
Intangibles – Both teams won against top flight opponents last week and both teams benefited from a lot of uncharacteristic mistakes from those teams. I’m not sure how much credit you can give the Broncos for a game in which they got 3 turnovers in the redzone. I’m not sure how much credit the Steelers get for winning a game when the opposing QB totally falls apart. Both teams have been playing with tons of intensity and have been playing with a chip on their shoulders. The Denver homefield advantage is going to be a factor I think. Mile High is a location where even good road teams tend to struggle traditionally.
The Pick: Broncos
Tying the game in the last minute only to have the kicker put the kickoff out of bounds?
What about the other game?
Working on it, since I made these longer I wanted to get this one out for discussion sooner than later.
For a second, I thought this was your prediction of the game’s final score.
I am not a praying man, but I pray that you are wrong.
I generally find myself agreeing with your rationale regarding why you make your picks (even if I don’t always agree with the picks), but this time it seems like we’ve been watching different teams because I give Pittsburgh the advantage in every position but CB.
One has to wonder how the slew of obviously bad officiating calls last week (including one against Pittsburgh) will affect things this week–particularly in this game–what with Denver being the kings of the hometown call and both teams being notorious for their not-always-above-board playing.
At the majority of positions the difference is a razor thin margin. These teams are certainly very evenly matched. I think your bias shows if you think Pittsburgh is favored across the board. I find it difficult to argue that the Steelers have an edge at RB when you look at the stats, though Pittsburgh is no slouch. At DL I think the Broncos have a pretty clear advantage too, somewhat mitigated by the differences between the 3-4 and the 4-3. The rest of the positions could go either way, but you’d have to sell me pretty hard to by that the Steelers are favorites at those spots.
I notice you are bit afraid to do the NFC game.
I don’t blame you. After all…you picked Da Bears and the Giants.
It’s a bit harder to pick Seattle isn’t it?
Typing it up now. Indeed the Seahawks are tougher to contemplate since I’ve seen so little of them compared to the rest of the NFC teams. We’ll see where it goes.
Not much point to this, Omniscient, I’m sure, but I found your analysis, well, less than compelling. For example, your assessment of the run blocking of the Steelers versus the Broncos: Faneca and Hartings are pro bowl selections, whereas there are no Denver lineman going to the pro bowl (this will be Faneca’s fourth pro bowl selection). Also, your inclusion of Verron Haynes in the analysis suggests that you don’t know much about Steeler football. Haynes is a third down back who may get more carries when we are killing the clock at the end of a game or carrying out a 3rd and 20 draw handoff.
You chastized soulmurk for bias, but you seem to pick the Broncos across the board, even giving the nod to Plummer over Roethlisberger :dubious: and, as noted, the O line of the Broncos over the Steelers. Frankly, I think you’ll see Casey Hampton in the backfield as much as Mike Anderson, forcing Plummer to pass, and I think you’re gonna see the old Jake Plummer when that happens, especially after getting tagged a time or two by Joey Porter or Clark Haggans.
But, I hope the Broncos are actually thinking like you are. When you root for one team to beat a higher seed so that you get to play the lower seed, be careful what you wish for. If they are looking ahead to the Superbowl because they don’t have to play the Colts, they are going to be in for a little surprise. They looked like shit against the Patriots - the only difference is that the Steelers won’t turn it over five times.
Admittedly, I am biased. Not for Pittsburgh, but against Denver.
Having watched several games by both teams recently, I’ve just been far more impressed by Pittsburgh than Denver. I’m sure stats could be thrown back and forth for each team, and that a good argument could be made either way, but statistics are unreliable in that in each game (especially in the playoffs) surprises are bound to happen. For example, statistically speaking, by all rights the Bear’s defense should have pwned the Carolina offense.
Denver, to me, is a weaker version of the team Pittsburgh has been working on for years: strong run game; adequate QB who’s good at playaction; decent mid-range receivers; hardy defense. It may be my anti-Denver bias that tells me that Pittsburgh is better at all positions but CB, but it is my eyes that tell me that the two teams are not evenly matched.