OK, it’s time to get down to brass tacks. Super Bowl Prediction time. One nugget of info I feel obligated to share, it looks like I’m going to the Super Bowl. Driving to Detroit on Friday and spending the weekend there, and we’ve got a hook up for tickets at face value. The tickets aren’t in hand yet, but we’re definitely gonnabe in town doing it up. Now it I actually had some money it’d be a really great time. Enough about me, lets look at the teams:
**Super Bowl XL **
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Sunday, February 5th 6:00 PM ET on ABC
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (Steelers by 4, O/U 47)
I’m surprised there’s been as little movement on the betting line as there has. I thought for sure the rabid Steeler fans would push this line into the 7-point territory by now. I really like this match-up, and I think it’s going to be a well watched game. More so than some of the cynics are predicting. There’s plenty of talent on the field, both teams have a handful of high profile guys who carry themselves well. Aside from Joey Porter there’s not really a single guy with a negative image. Geographically the game is diverse enough to draw fans from both coasts and the history of the Steelers will be polarizing enough to have people rooting for one side or another. Lets look at the match-ups.
QB – Two top notch players here. Neither can be accused of being carried by his running game or defense. Both have had unbelievable postseasons and both have plenty of weapons. The popular opinion places Big Ben at the head of the class, but I’m not ready to dismiss Hasselbeck so quickly. Statistically they are both very productive. Big Ben is more mobile and presents a bit tougher match-up for the defense with his size and speed. Hasselbeck has a slightly deeper crop of WRs and a more balanced system around him. There’s a larger burden on Roethlisberger to carry his team offensively and Seattle has some talented guys in pass coverage. All in all I give Ben the edge due to his size relative to the Seattle pass rush. I just think he’ll create second chances. I expect both passing attacks to be productive though.
RB – This one tilts heavily in the Seahawks favor. I don’t care what you say about Alexander, him with the help of that massive OL and Mack Strong he’s pretty damn dominant. One area of concern is that his numbers have dropped sizably on the road this season, but Ford Field uses the same turf and I think that eases that worry. It should be a fast track in there. The Bettis story is all warm and fuzzy, but the guy just isn’t that big a factor in the game anymore. That 30 YPG number just doesn’t stop traffic, short yardage back or not. If the Steelers try and write the fairytale, giving him extra touches when the game is in doubt it’ll cost them. Parker is the guy that needs to be on the field for all the snaps. In the postseason he’s only averaging 45 yards and 2.8 per carry after 3 games, that’s just not going to get it done in the Super Bowl.
WR – Randle El and Ward are terrific and do a great job of getting yards after the catch and finding open spaces when Ben needs help. Heath Miller looks like a top notch, long term TE in Pittsburgh. The Seahawks go 4 deep at the WR position and have an excellent inside-outside threat in Jackson and Jurevicius. Engram and TE Stevens open up the deep middle of the field and put serious pressure on the Steelers secondary. I think they have the speed and variety of formations to really exploit the DB shortcomings of the Steelers, where Denver did not. I think both TEs will put up huge numbers. Still, I like the depth of Seattle’s squad when it comes right down to it.
DEF – The Steelers have everything going for them here. The 3-4 scheme has been effective in giving the other playoff QBs fits. The blitzes have been somewhat restrained by Pittsburgh standards and I’m inclined to expect more of the same this week unless they are able to totally eliminate the running game of Alexander. The difference will be the Pittsburgh secondary. As good as the Pittsburgh front 7 are, they are facing the best OL in football, so I think Hasselbeck will have chances to throw. I do think they’ll be successful in containing the Seattle rush. Alexander is at his best finding seams and getting to the outside, but the group of Porter, Haggins, Foote and Farrior have too much speed playing off the line to allow big holes. On the other side of the field, the Seahawks have been a little better than their stats indicate. Having lead so many games by large margins they’ve played a softer defense, and judging by points allowed they look much more formidable. Tatupu and Trufant will have to have superior games to tilt this game in their favor. I don’t suspect that their front 7 will have nearly the success creating sacks and pressure that they did in the regular season. Roethlisberger is not Alex Smith or Kurt Warner. If they hope to contain that offense they’ll have to stop the big play and shut down the run. All in all, Pittsburgh gets the nod here.
Coach – Hmm, tough call. Walrus or Pornstache? Really, this is difficult to gauge. Reports have been questioning some of Cowher’s choices in the week leading up to the game. Accusing him of getting away from the fundamentals that got his team where it is. We’ll have to see if there’s anything curious about his gameplan come kickoff. The 3-4 scheme is traditionally the ideal counter to the West Coast offense. Both squads have first rate defensive coordinators , both former head coaches in Lebeau and Rhodes. I have no doubt that there’ll be some trickery on both sides to exploit any possible tendencies. I’ll call this match-up a push. I simply don’t have any solid basis for doubt either one of these guys. Both have had tons of success and both have had some let downs.
Intangibles – Lets see. The location has to favor the Steelers. The widespread fan support and proximity to Pittsburgh is going to have the crowd solidly in the Steelers favor. The turf, as mentioned before, is identical to that which exists in Seattle and their team is used to cutting on it. As much as Porter tries to deny it, his team is a heavy favorite and the Seahawks can legitimately rally around the underdog label….for what little that’s worth. My perception has the Steelers being the ones getting caught up in the hype and possibly distracted from the task at hand. Seattle has been mostly quiet and focused, at least as that’s the impression I get from watching TV. On the whole I feel like all the Bettis headlines are a net negative for the Steelers. The off week and the quasi-neutral site really buffer those intangibles, but I think they favor the Seahawks ever so little.
Summary – All the Steelers fans I’ve talked to, including the many here on this MB, seem really confident in this match-up. Most confidently picking a blowout. I think this borders on insanity. Both teams certainly can win in a blowout, but just about every measure has this game being a close one. Seattle has too many weapons, has won too many games, and played well enough against the Panthers to objectively think they are not a threat. If that confidence is reflected in the players they could be in trouble. If I were a Steelers fan I’d be especially concerned that Joey Porter wasn’t aware that Jerramy Stevens was the opponents starting TE, especially considering he’s supposed to be covering him. This game is going to be decided but the secondaries. Neither squad will be able to run the ball at will and the quality of the respective QB/WR/TE combos will be apparent. If either group is able to eliminate the deep ball and get off the field on 3rd down consistently that team’s going to win the game. I think the Seahawks have a slightly better chance of breaking through on the ground and I’m more confident in their DBs. If the Steeler LBs give Hasselbeck fits all bets are off, but I leaning ever so slightly in the Seahawks favor.
The Pick: Seahwaks
Fire away!
