March to Super Bowl XXXX!! (Predictions and Trash Talk Galore!)

In My Humble Opinion
41

I agree, but as a Chargers fan who saw every game this year except Miami, I swear to you that they didn’t just LOOK sketchy, they WERE sketchy. The team very obviously had the ability to defeat anybody in the league–hell, they were the first team to beat the Colts, and not by the skin of their knees either–but you just never knew if they’d show up or not. They dropped stinkers in Dallas and Denver–yes, the games were close, but in the last minutes they crumbled like bleu cheese. Yeah, they looked damn good against the Giants, but that was at home and we would’ve never let them lose to a Manning here. They were obviously talented and able, but they weren’t just outmatched by good teams–they just didn’t show up in the fourth quarter. Believe me, they weren’t outmatched for a single one of their losses this year–they beat themselves, especially in the beginning of the year. That’s the kind of team that a Super Bowl dynasty with an incredible home winning streak had the ability to beat.

Same for the Chargers, actually. (Or close. I seem to remember there being at least 5, which may or may not include Kansas City getting an extra couple days thanks to Hurricane Wilma.)

42

Stereotypical of a Schottenheimer coached team. San Diego is probably one of the 5 most talented teams in the entire league on both sides of the ball. However Marty finds ways to take great talent and turn it into good teams. There was a rumor floating around that Marty could be heading to the Jets in the wake of the Edwards move. The would be the best thing that could happen to the Chargers. First because they improve after replacing Marty with just about anyone (Kirk Ferentz would fit great there, and how could he turn down NFL money in San Diego!) and second because the Chiefs make a signficant downgrade from Vermeil to Edwards.
On a totally different topic, I thought we were finally free of the disaster that is a Paul Maguire/Theisman booth. Yet ESPN loans them to ABC for a playoff game, gah! Please, no more, I’m begging.

43

I just finished rolling up my season statistics for my weekly prediction on a week-by-week basis. Here’s what they look like:



	ATS			O/U			Pick 5				Notes
	Wins	Losses	Ties	Wins	Losses	Ties	Wins	Losses	Ties		
Week 1	8	7					3	2			Missed Thursday game, did not do O/U
Week 2	7	8	1				2	3			No O/U again
Week 3	3	11		6	6		0	5			
Week 4	5	9		5	9		1	4			
Week 5	6	8		11	3		1	4			
Week 6	8	6		6	8		3	2			
Week 7	10	3	1	5	8	1	5	0			
Week 8	5	9		7	7						Forgot Pick 5
Week 9	7	6	1	7	7		4	0	1		
Week 10	7	7		5	7	2	2	3			
Week 11	8	8		8	8		2	3			
Week 12	7	7	2								No O/U or Pick 5, Thanksgiving
Week 13	12	4		10	6		5	0			
Week 14	7	8	1	7	7	2	1	4	1		
Week 15	9	7		11	5		2	3			
Week 16											No Picks, Christmas Weekend
Week 17	10	5	1	6	10						No Pick 5
**Totals	119	113	7	94	91	5	31	33	2**

So you can see that after an awful start I rebounded to a positive winning percentage for both the ATS and O/U numbers. It wasn’t great, but I’ll take it. Oddly those OMNI picks were just below .500, a bad omen when those are supposed to be you most confident ones. Though, strangely, I had 2 perfect weeks. Which if I’d been playing in the pool that originated the tactic would have been very very lucrative.

I’m 1 for 1 in the playoffs, so we’ll see if the quest for a perfect playoff season pans out.

I just got in on a playoff fantasy league with some friends in which there’s some serious cash at stake. Here’s the rules:

My roster is:

QB: Tom Brady
RB: Shaun Alexander
RB: Edge James
WR: Plaxico Burress
WR: Steve Smith
WR: Santana Moss
TE: Heath Miller
K: Jason Elam
DEF: Bears

I think it’s a pretty good roster. I downplayed the players on Cincy, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and Tampa because I think it’s a real long shot for any of them to end up in the Conference Championship game.

44

I wanted to take a minute and spout off on my opiniion of Brett Favre. A few people here and just about every NFL pundit are calling for him to retire. I think this is absurd. Lemme lay out my case, and keep in ming that I’m a Bears fan who loathes Favre beyond all rational understanding.

Favre has not lost any of his physical talents. He’s still very mobile for a man his age, not quite as mobile as he once was, though he still can evade a rush and bootleg with the best of them. He still has one of the top 5 arms in football. Of course this gives him too much confidence and he forces things, but he hasn’t lost his arm strength and ability to make any throw he needs to. He’s still durable, has not missed a start and isn’t prone to nagging injuries like McNair, Brunell, Leftwich and several other guys with similar styles of play.

His problems have been with decision making, and to a lesser degree talent around him. Decision making is certainly part of a QBs skill, but it’s at least equally the responsibility of the head coach. The head coach must draw up feasible schemes, he must play up his QBs stregths and get the ball to the guys who can make plays.

Favre’s numbers have declined steadily and quickly from the moment that Sherman took over as head coach. While his yardage totals have gone up and down and he’s still putting up solid TD numbers his INTs have skyrocketed and his abilty to convert 3rd downs has been Dilfer-esque. To me, those aren’t problems with Favre, those are problems with the system he’s in and the ability of the coach to control his QB and manage the game.

Sherman is a awful in game coach. He doesn’t control field position, manage the clock, or scheme anything that catches defenses by surprise. This offense works on the ability of Favre to improvise. Improvisation needs to be the icing on the cake, not the whole cake.

Now that Sherman has been fired, the Packers should bring in another coach with a good offensive mind. A guy who can manage a QB and can communicate with Favre, but not be overruled by Favre. A guy who can earn Favre’s respect and who Favre will take direction from.

Talentwise the Packers are not that far off the pace. They had some serious injuries at key positions. If they get Ahman Green, Javon Walker and Samkon Gado back that’s an offense, with Donald Driver, than can move the ball. In free agency and the draft they need to focus on building out their offensive line pr replacing some players lost to FA, but they aren’t in a bad position moneywise. Currently essentially all their RBs are FAs, Green could come back for cheap or they could break the bank and go for one of a handful of stud FAs. The draft also looks to be pretty solid from a RB standpoint. At WR, Driver, Walker and Champman will be back and that’s not a terrible crew to have if healthy. Basically they need to address two areas, O-line and RB. If they do it wisely, which they can with cap room and a high draft pick, they could be a force next year.

So, I say this, if Favre comes back next year a little humbled. The Packers add a quality coach that Favre approves of and trusts and they give him a quality O-line, there’s no reason they aren’t back into the playoffs next year.

Personally, anyone who’s saying he should just hang it up isn’t looking at things objectively. Sure it’s sad seeing him suck right now (well, I love it but I’m a Bears fan) but the problem isn’t with him. He’s not a broken down Emmitt Smith holding on just to set a record. He’s not Namath or Unitas who’s bodies had broken down so much they make Kurt Warner look spry. He’s not running on two wooden legs and he doesn’t have Penningtons nodle arm. The guys has struggled because he’s been playing under a likable coach who is hopeless.

Marriuci is probably one coach who Favre would be happy to return and play with. AFAIK they have a good relationship and a history together and Mooch is reputed to be a offensive coach. Though that Detroit situation gives me concerns. In both SF and Detroit he apparently ran a pretty loose ship. I’m not sure you can turn around a team that way and the Packers would benefit from some discipline. Then again, maybe Mooch got a bad rap and combined with Favre they’d be able to whip these guys into shape. If any team has the type of leader who can survive with a “player coach” this one is it.

I don’t think a college guy like Ferentz would be a smart choice, but another interesting guy would be Mike Martz. The stumbling block there would be the complexity of Martz’s offense and Favre’s resistance to learning something totally new, but I bet Martz would build something that would be explosive up there. It might end up being too restrictive for Favre though. Still, with Martz there and if they keep Bates to run a improving defense it could work.

Jim Fassel is a experience guy that has offensive/QB chops who could be a difference maker as well. I think they want to hang onto Bates at all costs to hold that defense together, but I wouldn’t want him there as the head coach. Any OC he brings in would not have the authority to control Favre the way he nees.
Oh well, that’s just the thoughts that have been kicking around my head. Just so long as no one floats a asinine suggestion like the Bears signing him I think I can rest easy with that off my chest.

45

Washington 17, Tampa Bay 10: The bad news for the Redskins is that their offense didn’t show up. The good news is that they didn’t have to. That defense will be able to compete in the Seattle game next week, but they HAVE to get SOMETHING on the offensive side of the ball. Going to have to withhold a pick on that one 'till we see if Sean Taylor has any forthcoming extra punishment for his absolute stupidity… but if he plays, I’ll be really tempted to pick the upset.

New England 28, Jacksonville 3: And it could have been even worse. Wow, was I wrong in saying that this one would be closer than everyone thought. Leftwich actually looked pretty good (the one INT for a TD was a desperation throw), but they never had any part of a running game, and without it they never really had much of a chance. Brady wasn’t really that sharp, and he still came out of it with a ~115 rating and 3 TDs (and damn, Branch, how do you drop that one at the end of the first half?). The D looked good even without Bruschi… but Jacksonville is no Indy. Next week should be fun no matter who we match up with.

A good start to the playoffs!

46

I agree with most of what your saying. Favre had little to work with this year. No running game to fall back on, no star receivers, crumbling o-line. Was he careless? No, he was just trying to get something going in a hopeless situation. It’s either try to thread the needle or hug the ball and go down with a sak. I give him props for making the risky passes. It shows that he really could care less about passer ratings and interception numbers. He just wanted to make something happen. And he’s way too classy a guy to go out and say “It’s not my fault, I have nothing to work with out there.”
And I don’t get people (especially in Minnesota) who say he’s too old, yet think they are in great shape for next year with the ‘older’ Brad Johnson???
The guy can still play, he just needs a little more talent around him.

47

That’s not entirely true from the games I saw, which was several. He wasn’t trying to force the ball in on many of his INTs and he wasn’t trying to make something happen in a hopeless situation.

Many of those picks came in close games when his team had a chance. Some happened when they had a lead and a punt would have been a positive outcome. His MO this season seemed to be instead of pulling the ball down under pressure he’d wing it downfield. These aren’t 4th down situations or two minute drill passes. Often he’d see a blitz coming and toss it downfield. In his days with Holmgren he’d throw picks when he tried to lace the ball between two converging DBs. He’d throw picks when he’d be trying to convert a third and 8 even though the defense had a perfect defense against it. These last few seasons those INTs came when he seemed to not know what he wanted to do with it. Thats the issue and thats where the blame falls on his coach and/or Favre’s unwillingness to be coached.

48

I’m going to have to disagree with you here. You seem to be making the claim that Favre’s numbers have maintained since Sherman took over, with the exception of his interceptions going up. The numbers just don’t support this.

In the 8 years prior to Sherman taking over in 2000, Favre averaged 17.375 interceptions per season. In the next 5 years under Sherman, he averaged 17 exactly. Then this year, Sherman’s sixth, Favre threw a career high 29 picks, which brings his Sherman-era average up to 19.

It’s not hard to find reasons why Favre struggled this year, but I think it’s unfair to lay the blame on Sherman.

Then again, I’ve always had issues with Favre. I think his reputation is all built on a single game, and if he’d lost to Bledsoe in that Superbowl, their reputations would have been (and remained) swapped to this day.

49

I made my first-round picks over here, a few days back:

So far, so good. I haven’t seen either the Steelers or the Bengals play this year, so if I get that one right, it’ll be plain luck. Not that there’s anything wrong with luck. :slight_smile:

50

Giants and Bengals.

We’ll see!

51

Ellis in my rationale I was including that Ray Rhodes season, it was argued from a pre- and post-Holmgren mentality.

While the statistical differential isn’t as stark as my memory thought it was I think it’s fair to judge the quality of said interceptions. In the past as has been noted, he threw them while trying to make something happen. In recent years they have tended to be more of the bail-out variety instead.

52

Agreed that the recent memory interceptions have looked just awful. I didn’t see as many of his earlier games as you, so I’ll concede that his picks from that era looked better.

One piece of trivia for you: Favre threw the exact same number of picks in his last year under Holmgren as he did the next year, his only year under Rhodes. The next few years under Sherman he threw significantly fewer picks. (Below his career average of 17, in the area of 13 to 14 per season.)

Btw, that potshot at Favre being the basically the same guy as Bledsoe isn’t only about that single game, but also the fact that Favre spent 25% of his entire career playing the Bears – a good team for only 2 seasons of Favre’s entire career, including this one – and the Lions, who have been awful forever.

Give Bledsoe or Scary Kerry 4 games against scrubs every single year and see how well they do compared to Favre. (Matt Hasselback is quickly earning this same reputation in my mind.)

With that idea in mind, I really do have to give Tom Brady some props. During their dynasty – excluding this year – he played in the toughest division in football, which was known for having defensive powers like the Bills and Dolphins, and was lights out. You might note that Peyton didn’t look so hot when he played in the AFC East. Down in the hapless AFC South? Peyton’s now enjoying the Favre-effect, playing 25% of his games against the Titans and Texans. Must be nice for him.

53

Nah, looking here you can see that Favre’s lowest INT total was 15 in his post Holmgren years.

Additionally, I think if you looked harder at the cumulative records that over a span as long as Favre’s career (or even on the order of 6 or 8 years) you’d see that just about every division evens out. You’re certainly misremembering how bad the Lions were for the bulk of Favre’s career. Here’s their win totals in the Barry Sanders era which overlaps Favre’s:



1998 5 11 0 4th 
1997 9 7 0 3rd 
1996 5 11 0 5th 
1995 10 6 0 1st 
1994 9 7 0 2nd 
1993 10 6 0 1st 
1992 5 11 0 3rd 
1991 12 4 0 1st

Not dominant, but certainly no perennial doormat.

And the Bears, the Wanny era notwithstanding, weren’t exactly pushovers either:


2004 5 11 0 4th 
2003 7 9 0 3rd 
2002 4 12 0 3rd 
2001 13 3 0 1st 
2000 5 11 0 5th 
1999 6 10 0 5th 
1998 4 12 0 5th 
1997 4 12 0 5th 
1996 7 9 0 3rd 
1995 9 7 0 3rd 
1994 9 7 0 2nd 
1993 7 9 0 4th 
1992 5 11 0 3rd 
1991 11 5 0 2nd

Compare those lists to the stats of the Bills and Jets respectively.



2004 9 7 0 3rd 
2003 6 10 0 3rd 
2002 8 8 0 4th 
2001 3 13 0 5th 
2000 8 8 0 4th 





2004 10 6 0 2nd 
2003 6 10 0 4th 
2002 9 7 0 1st 
2001 10 6 0 3rd 
2000 9 7 0 3rd 
1999 8 8 0 5th

Pretty similar really. Also it’s important to remember that for the bulk of Favre’s career took place in a period in which the NFC was consistently stronger than the AFC with the Dallas, San Fran, Rams runs of dominance.

Brady’s great, no doubt, but I can’t see any way you can say Favre’s a product of weak competition.

54

Yeah, I misremember the 13 and 14 pick years, which were part of the Holmgren era. But I’m begging you, please don’t link to the espn pages, as they are openly hostile to those of us on dialup. pro-football-reference is much kinder to us low-bandwith schmucks.

As for your stats for those years, you seem to be cherry picking. I note that the Lions went 12-4 in 1991, which is certainly impressive competition for Favre. Except that he was in Atlanta, not Green Bay, and he only threw 5 passes that year. That hardly seems fair to include, no?

Favre played in Green Bay from 1992 to present. During those 14 seasons, the Lions were 91-133, and the Bears were 96-128. The Vikings were actually good, but the fact remains that Favre played 4 games a year against those two inept organizations. (The Bucs were basically just under a .500 team from 92-01, before they moved to the NFC South in 02.)

C’mon, are you really arguing the point that those two franchises – who had a combined record of 187-261 over the course of Favre’s career – weren’t pushovers?

As for your point about Brady, fair enough, let’s check the numbers. He was a starter from 2001 to present. One thing that immediately jumps out to me is that Peyton Manning, in his fourth NFL season, only went 6-10 in 2001. I see his record jumps up quite a bit after that when he got to feast on the newbie franchises for a good bit of each season. But I digress…

Bills: 31-49 (Just as crappy as either the Lions or Bears)
Jets: 39-41 (About the same as the Bucs in the Central)
Dolphins: 43-37 (Not quite as good as the Vikings, but no pushover)

So Brady had one doormat, whereas Favre had two. Good to know; I’ll file that away in case the Jets and Bills stink it up for the next 9 years like the Lions and Bears did.

55

The bulk? Maybe the first 6 years, but the last 8 have been years where the AFC dominated.

The NFC dominated up until 98, when the AFC took over the league.

56

0-1 so far. I’m glad Mr. Manning got the dish that was coming for him, though. Let’s see about the Bengals!

Next week: Redskins and Bears. More picks after the game.

57

If you’d told me the Bengals would put up 10 points in the first quarter after losing Carson Palmer, I’d have called you crazy.

The question is going to be: can the defense keep the Bengals in the game?

58

Ellis, I’m not knocking Brady and I’m not saying Favre had it tougher. Just saying that over the long run the strength of schedules even out. There’s not a single player in the league that over a 10 year or greater career has inflated statistics. Parity and the law of averages bring every team to the middle. Believe me, I’ve been dying to find somehwere that has strength of schedule stats but it’s been fruitless.

59

Well that was a pretty dismal showing by the Gi’nts. I guess I’ll be rooting for the Bears next week.

Oh well, Giants still did much better than I actually expected for the season.
Good Luck to everybody that still has a horse in the race.

Jim

60

41 yards.

:slight_smile: