Well the Divisional match-ups are set. I had a solid start, going 3 and 1 in my picks however the dream of a perfect run is already over. So very sad. I don’t know what happened with that Giant-Panther game, unfortunately I was unable to watch the bulk of it so I’m not sure where it went awry. Still, wisdom has to dictate that you always take a second look at a rookie QB in the playoffs. Whew, 4 INTs….this Bears fan just threw up in his mouth. Still, I must soldier on!
AFC Divisional Playoffs
Saturday, January 14th 8 PM ET
New England @ Denver
This is an interesting game and I think it’s probably the best possible match-up for the Pats. I say this because the Broncos weakest aspect is probably it’s WRs, Rod Smith aging and the rest inconsistent at best, which considering New England’s secondary’s issues is a bit of good fortune. These teams played a fairly close game in the middle of the season in New England where Denver came out on top. However, New England was missing tons of key contributors in that game. The most notable are Dillon, Faulk, Seymour and Bruschi. All of which will be serious factors in this game. Gamblers are simply scared to death of Jake Plummer and I concur. There’s been no indication that he’s going to do anything but play well based on this season’s performance but my stomach does a flip picturing him throwing a hot route into the teeth of a zone blitz. Still you’d be a fool to disregard the Broncos running attack. I think the defenses will be strained in this game. The Pats running game won’t be very productive, but if they keep the defense honest I expect a typical Brady performance……325 yards, 3TDs. The Broncos will have to convert in the redzone in order to win the game and if the Pats pass rush stays in it’s lanes against Plummer they might just create enough mistakes to get off the field. If Plummer plays superb, the Broncos will win it, but if he makes any mistakes the Pats will win the game. Largely due to the fact that the thought of Plummer breaking my back makes me nauseous and the fact that fate seems to be setting up an Indy-NE rematch I’m going to side with the Pats in a exciting game.
The Pick: Patriots
Sunday, January 15th 1 PM ET
Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis
The Steelers played a solid game with all kinds of attitude last week. They caught a break with the Palmer injury. Had he played a full game we might have gotten an impression of how the Pittsburgh pass defense would handle Manning. I think we can expect a really physical game. The Steelers played last week like someone pissed in their Cheerios, personally I thought it was piss poor sportsmanship and they are now my new least favorite team but nonetheless it’s a factor. They’ll probably do the same this week and try and bully and bruise the Colts, but the Colts will be playing with tons of emotion at home. They won’t back down. I hate to say it, but I think there’s going to be a couple injuries in this game as a result. So, if that prediction is true you can expect a hard hitting game with a couple turnovers on each side and some penalties at key spots. The Steelers secondary will not be able to contain the Colts passing game and Manning will eat up the middle of the field. The difference in the game will be if they get FGs or TDs. The Steelers running game will be productive, but the Colt D won’t be overrun. Big Ben will need to hold up his end of the bargain and he’s proven capable, so long as he’s not hassled. Homefield will play a major role. I expect the noise to cause trouble for the Steeler passing game and the speed of the turf to benefit the Colts. They simply have more team speed than Pittsburgh. I think this is the game where Bettis runs out of gas.
The Pick: Colts
NFC Divisional Playoffs
Saturday, January 14th 4:30 PM ET
Washington @ Seattle
Washington needs to get some offense this week if they want to have a prayer. There’s no question that Tampa’s defense is first class and a notch or two above Seattle’s but I’m not sure that Brunell can generate consistent offense. Washington was very lucky in that Tampa game and I don’t think they can expect defensive scores against a steady, balanced offense like Seattle’s. In the previous match-up the Redskins needed a last second missed FG to send the game to OT and get the win and both teams put up similar offensive numbers, so perhaps Washington’s poor offensive showing last week will be reversed here. Still, Brunell’s number at the start of the year were off the charts compared to the last 2 months. Seattle’s stout offensive line and ability to maintain long sustained drives has been what’s got them in the #1 slot and even against a strong D like Washington’s they won’t be totally stopped. This game shouldn’t be overthought. The Seahawks have a edge at RB and a huge edge at QB, the rest of the comparisons don’t offset those to factors. I’ll take the team with the Pro Bowl QB and MVP running back unless I have a really good reason. Here, I don’t.
The Pick: Seahawks
Sunday, January 15th 4:30 PM ET
Carolina @ Chicago
Here’s the game. I won’t pretend to even try and be impartial here, but I think I have good reason for confidence. Exhibit A is the previous matchup. BTW, it’s interesting that every single one of the Divisional games is a rematch of a regular season game, made more unlikely by the fact that none of the teams are divisional rivals. In the previous game, played in Chicago, the Panthers were totally manhandled by the Bear D. Defensively they contained the Bears and neither squad moved the ball consistently, but the Bears offensive line is the better of the two. The Bears need to improve their rush defense from where it’s been over the last 4 games or so, however that downturn coincided with some key injuries to the middle of the defense. Big hitter Mike Brown and LB Hillenmeyer will be back on the field for this game and everyone will be rested and ferocious at home. Still, Thomas Jones and whoever he splits carries with will need to be productive. Fox will certainly put the game into Grossman’s hands and everyone will very quickly be introduced to Rex. He likely won’t have much time get comfortable, because of this I was disappointed in Lovie’s decision to start Orton in the finale. Granted an injury to Rex would have been crushing, but having only gotten 2 games under his belt he may have benefited from an extra few series. The Bears offensive line must stop the pass rush and open some holes in order to make the play action effective. If they do, Grossman will have enough to work with. On the other side of the ball, the Bears defense must shut down DeShaun Foster and not allow any yards after catch from Steve Smith. If they do that they’ll be able to force the Panthers into 3rd and longs which is where the pass rush will shine. These teams are really so similar it’s scary, but I’m reassured by the evidence that the Bears offensive line should out play the Panther offensive line. Last time they played the Panthers gave up 8 sacks to the front 4, the Bears didn’t need to blitz and the Panther running game never got off the ground. I don’t expect Peppers and company to be totally quieted, but Grossman’s ability to make decisive throws quickly should help keep him out of the box score.
The Pick: Bears