Imagine that the governments of the world collectively come to their senses, and by a specific date in the near future (say, June 1, 2013) marijuana is legal in just about every jurisdiction in the world. It is essentially treated like alcohol-- in some jurisdictions you have to be 21 to buy it, others 18; there are some places where it will still be forbidden just like alcohol is (certain fundamentalist Muslim nations; dry counties in the US, etc.); in some places it will be taxed and/or regulated pretty heavily, in others not so much.
What are some of the outcomes that you can foresee?
Here’s what I’m thinking:
The price of ditchweed will all but tank. Since marijuana grows just about everywhere, and since it can be grown on farms instead of secret growhouses, the supply will skyrocket, driving prices down. HOWEVER,
High-potency strains will still be somewhat expensive. Just as one can brew their own beer in their kitchen, good results aren’t guaranteed and most beer drinkers prefer the convenience of paying for a professional product (and its attendant taxes). Growing good marijuana is a much bigger deal than growing ditchweed, and professionals will still want a premium. Also, when it’s sold retail (as opposed to person-to-person, like, say, home-grown tomatoes) it can be taxed.
The law-enforcement industry is going to shrink somewhat. Police spend a lot of their time busting people for possessing and/or distributing pot. Similarly, lots of people are incarcerated for pot offenses. Once pot is legal, both of those things won’t be true any more.
The price of other (still illegal) drugs might come down. Drug cartels that are currently in the business of distributing MJ are going to have to find something else to do, right? That should increase the supply of other illegal drugs, driving down the price.
What else do you see happening? I’m particularly interested in what will happen in countries where marijuana export is a large part of the economy. What will happen to Jamaica, for example?
Long-term, large-scale clinical trials to determine the specific short and long-term effects, good/bad/indifferent, on smokers & second-hand smokers. Perhaps followed by some worldwide changes in policy, depending on the results.
I was going to say that Hostess comes out of bankruptcy by Christmas 2013.
And I’ll mostly disagree with point #2.
While soil chemistry and other conditions will affect the end product, planting Purple Haze will result in something very close to Purple Haze. Home brewing, on the other hand, has far more opportunities for customizing the end result.
Now that Colorado and Washington have stepped up, it won’t be long before other states are having to make note of the tax revenues. Anyone care to place bets as to how long it will be before California reaches into the cookie jar?
Aside from law enforcement, prisons and criminal cartels being slightly smaller, I think life would progress as usual after we all adjusted to having another mind altering substance available to us legally (we already have a bunch).
I don’t know enough about growing to know how labor intensive it is to make the good stuff. But you’d assume growers overseas where labor is cheap would still drastically reduce the price of the good stuff.
I assume the drug market is based on supply/demand by and large, so even if you take out MJ that doesn’t mean the market for other illegal drugs is going to grow. People aren’t going to demand more amphetamines, cocaine or heroin. Then again, the oversupply of cocaine in the 70s led to the crack epidemic of the 80s. So people can create demand if supply is high enough by changing the product. Maybe if the US gets flooded with other drugs the demand will go up. But as it is we’ve already treated the hard drugs as two separate substances
High price drugs associated with fame or fortune (cocaine or heroin, which can easily run several hundred dollars a day)
Quick acting drugs associated with the poor (crack cocaine, meth, or low cost forms of heroin like cheese).
So what new market can they open with the new supply? They’ve already got the high end luxury market, and the low end ‘emotionally damaged poor person’ market too. The financial barriers to addiction have been lowered, rich people and poor people can and do get high on amphetamines, heroin, cocaine, etc. Creating a low cost version of cocaine like crack that is affordable to everyone isn’t feasable, we already have the low cost version.
Nations with climates favorable to growing weed year-round would see an influx of foreign cash to establish weed plantations in locations that are home to large populations of desperately poor folks to ensure a steady stream of cheap labor. (Unionization would be discouraged, obviously.) Such nations might also try to change their tax codes to make it cheaper to export weed, thus attracting even more investment. The local price of weed—all but the worst quality plants—in these nations would skyrocket since exporting it would be the highest priority. Weed growers would find their experience in high demand, and drug kingpins would become legitimate business magnates whose sons would dabble in politics. Weed growers in the United States would have a difficult time competing with cheaper foreign products, and they would eventually press congress for subsidies to keep them afloat. A marketing movement to promote American-grown weed would develop, similar to the advertisement campaigns of domestic beers.
I don’t really see much would change. I mean, everyone can already get hold of weed if they want it, but most people, after the age of about 18, have grown out of it. It’s hardly “mind-altering”, it just makes you find things unaccountably funny and give you cravings for snack food. Legalisation would be a big “meh”.
Aside from 7-11 stock going through the roof, I agree with Colophon, I don’t really see anything changing that much. Seriously, who can’t get marijuana, or any other drug for that matter, anytime they want already?
Agreed, much ado about nothing. In fact, as legalization gradually seeps its way into the fabric of society, it will happen pretty much without anyone taking notice.
Strongly disagree. Gardening is a fun, relaxing hobby. The results are typically beyond your wildest expectations, and even a less than perfect crop beats commercially grown outdoor product.
I want to know what the criminal syndicates are going to turn to. I have always heard (correct me if I am wrong) that they became prominent in the US during Prohibition and after repeal turned to drugs and gambling and perhaps other illegal activities.
Prisons will gradually empty (or maybe suddenly if repeal is made retroactive) and there will be a lot of unemployed prison guards. Courts will suddenly see a lighter load. Will there be more usage? I see no reason why since you can always get it anywhere I am aware of.
I have not heard a single word about any movement to have marijuana-related criminal convictions or current jail/prison sentences commuted, overturned or expunged in either CO or WA.
I would hope that anyone currently cooling their heels in the Seattle or Denver hoosegow just for getting caught slinging fattie dime-bags of savage moon cabbage gets an extra cookie or two at chow time…
Right now I’m picturing an Israeli and a Palestinian sitting in a hookah bar somewhere in the Gaza Strip:
Palestinian: fffft, Hey man sorry about that whole Jihad thing.
Israeli: fffft, Oy vey! Don’t worry about it my friend. It’s all water under the bridge. I guess we could stop with the whole “settlement expansion” thing too. Care for a hashish matzo ball?
So I vote world peace.
I think if it does become legal refined versions of it not just based on potency will quickly start emerging. I used pot for the relaxing creative effect it had on my brain. I did not like the effect of inability to focus for long periods. I think it may be possible to hone in on some of the more positive traits of pot and target those per users preference. We might end up smoking it ion powdered form, snorting it or taking it as a pill. I had to give up pot because it affected my breathing and caused heart arithmia. If I could avoid that I would cheerfully return to using it.
Whoever comes up with a quick, cheap, non-invasive test for concentration of THC in the bloodstream becomes a billionaire. Every police department in the world would buy a Weedalyzer for every cruiser, in order open up a new profit stream from pot DUI and public intoxication tickets. Not to mention contract drug-testing companies that serve the corporate market.
